全球大宗商品定价机制与国际经贸格局演变动态关系的研究评述

大宗商品及其价格波动的研究始终是国际经济学领域中备受关注的话题。近年来,全球大宗商品价格经历了错综复杂的变化,各方围绕大宗商品尤其是能源的定价权展开了激烈的斗争,并进一步引发了全球经济贸易格局的深刻调整。"中国因素"如何影响国际大宗商品价格机制以及如何提高中国的国际大宗商品定价权已成为具有深远意义且艰巨的课题。本文通过对国内外相关文献的综述,介绍了大宗商品价格波动的成因及对经济的影响、大宗商品定价机制的变迁及定价话语权的提高方式、大宗商品与经济安全的关系等,指出了现有研究存在的不足之处,揭示了全球大宗商品定价机制与国际经贸格局动态演变关系研究中可进一步探讨和突破的空间。     

The Valuation Model for a Risky Asset When Its Risky Factors Follow Gamma Distributions

This paper constructed a pricing model for the asset with multi‐risks by specifying the risky factors (i.e., interest rate and termination hazard rates) to follow gamma distributions. The model not only avoids the possibility of the termination hazard rate taking an irrational (i.e., negative) value, but it also makes it easier to derive a valuation formula for a risky asset. Our model can also effortless apply because the parameters of the gamma distribution can easily be estimated from market data. An example using Taiwanese bond data illustrates how the model can be utilized for practical applications. To facilitate understanding of how accurately the different models price risky bonds, we compare their out‐of‐sample pricing errors for different hazard rate specifications assuming normal and gamma distributions. The results show that our pricing formula is realistic and accurate in its applications. Therefore, it should help market participants to accurately price risky assets and to effectively manage complicated portfolios.     

一种改进的民用GPS异步欺骗技术

针对民用全球定位系统(Global Positioning System,GPS)欺骗中存在的欺骗信号伪码相位同步问题,通过欺骗建模分析得到了主要误差来源于探测系统定位精度。基于传统单路滑动牵引入锁技术,理论分析了功率损失主要来源于载波偏差。针对工程应用中欺骗信号构造时初始码相位超前滞后的不确定带来的欺骗起效时间二值性,提出基于码片误差滞后扩展处理的改进技术,并利用多路并发滑动优化单路滑动时间过长问题。通过软件接收机、商用接收机实验验证了改进的滑动入锁技术在实际应用中具有欺骗起效时间短、欺骗更可靠的特点。该研究成果可为民用GPS欺骗技术研究人员提供参考。     

国内市场一体化与企业内外销

厘清企业出口与内销的关系,对于推动形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,实现中国经济稳步增长具有重要意义.全球新冠肺炎疫情和中美贸易摩擦等给中国企业出口带来巨大的不确定性,企业迫切需要通过寻求广阔的国内市场化解国外需求冲击,而统一的国内市场则有利于内需潜力的释放.为此,本文将国内市场分割因素融入Melitz(2003)模型,以考察其如何影响企业出口与内销的关系,并利用中国工业企业数据库系统检验了两者间的关系.研究发现,国内市场分割迫使低效率企业以出口替代内销,而国内市场一体化则有利于出口企业增加国内销售比例,从而缓解出口对内销的替代.改善企业融资环境是其重要的影响渠道之一.因此,促进国内区域市场一体化、进一步挖掘国内市场潜力是助力中国出口企业实现内销转型,推动形成国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局的必要条件.     

企业研发投资的动态调整:平滑性或波动性

研发投资是企业自主技术创新的重要保障,其平滑性或波动性调整是研究企业研发行为的前提。本文以1990-2017年间1968家中国A股(非金融类)上市公司的非平衡面板数据为对象,通过考察目标研发水平来估算研发投资调整速度。证据表明,企业确实在追求目标研发投资水平,并根据内外部环境的变化而进行动态调整。这些结论无论是在公司规模、时间跨度还是在不同时间段上都具有稳健性,并且表明固定效应的部分调整模型与数据非常吻合。     

How will the Belt and Road initiative advance China’s exports?

We examined 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 data from 49 countries to determine changes wrought by China’s Belt and Road initiative; we also used panel data regarding the Maritime Silk and Inland Silk Roads to test initiative effects on Chinese exports. Post-initiative infrastructure expansion and logistics performance improvements led to positive effects on China’s exports. Additionally, legal-system similarities and inland borders with trade partners had a more positive effect on Chinese exports in the Inland Silk Road, while population and free trade agreements were found to have a more positive effect on the Maritime Silk Road.     

C-RAN网络中基于稀疏性的预测矩阵求解算法

在C-RAN（Centralized,Cooperative,Cloud Radio Access Network）无线网络基于转移矩阵的负载预测方法中,虽然该预测矩阵具有稀疏特性,但是现有的技术缺乏对稀疏特性加以利用,从而造成计算复杂。针对此问题,提出了一种基于稀疏性的预测矩阵求解算法。该算法对网络状态转移矩阵进行分块迭代,每次等分4块,并分别定义4块矩阵的偏移量。当属于同一行的块矩阵的偏移量有一个是零矩阵时,直接得出所求矩阵对应块的元素全部为零,然后进行下一次迭代;当属于同一行的块矩阵偏移量都不为零矩阵时,通过对矩阵方程组变形处理,转换成迭代格式,然后分块处理。最后,结合仿真定量分析稀疏矩阵稀疏度的临界值问题,给出了稀疏度与计算量之间的关系,并证明了其合理性。仿真结果表明,所提算法能够在不影响预测准确度前提下,降低复杂度。     

信号级协同计算平台架构及应用思考

针对智能化作战对军事电子信息系统计算能力提升的迫切需求,结合云计算的资源虚拟化、大数据的分布式计算等技术,提出了基于嵌入式CPU+ALL（DSP、FPGA、PPC、GPU、AI处理器等）的异构处理的信号级协同计算平台架构,包括弹性、轻量级异构资源虚拟化模型、分布式实时计算框架和智能计算框架等,形成了一套架构统一、资源共用、使用简便的协同计算和智能计算环境。通过战术级无线电认知和智能信号与信息处理两个典型应用场景,探讨了该信号级协同计算平台可能带来的颠覆性效用。     

Corruption and Its Effects on FDI: Analysing the Interaction Between the Corruption Levels of the Home and Host Countries and Its Effects at the Decision-Making Level

This study furthers our understanding of how corruption affects the decision-making process of allocating foreign direct investment. Drawing on the responses of 28 managers in charge of establishing operations in a highly corrupt host country, we argue that those firms based in home countries with low levels of corruption are more proactive in preparing to face corruption abroad than those based in countries with high corruption levels. This means that firms from less corrupt home countries have strategies in place to deal with high corruption abroad. This finding is based on the fact that these firms have stronger pressures to not engage in corruption from their home stakeholders. Also, these firms might not have the experience of dealing with corruption at home, which hinders their potential to deal with corruption abroad. On the other hand, those firms based in highly corrupt home countries do not have clear strategies to deal with corruption abroad. This assertion is based on the fact that these firms might have familiarity in dealing with corruption and thus, might not see it as an obstacle to operating abroad.