Inferences about the parameters of a time series model with changing variance

Summary We consider the problem of making inferences about the parameters of a time series model when there is the possibility of a discrete variance change at an unknown time point. For this we obtain the posterior distributions of the parameters and of the variance ratio.     

DISSIMILAR STRUCTURAL AND CONTROL PROFILES OF EDUCATIONAL AND TECHNICAL ORGANIZATIONS[1]

This article contrasts the characteristic structural and control profiles of educational organizations with those of technical organizations. A group of primary and secondary schools and the operating units of an industrial firm differed both in structural variables and in three activities of control: buffering, smoothing, and forecasting. the article suggests that educational organizations emphasize modes of control that operate on components peripheral rather than central to the organization's technical core.     

井陉西部地区白云岩矿特征及其成因

河北省井陉西部地区白云岩分布广泛，约占此区面积三分之一，主要为三山子白云岩，其中一段赋存有工业价值的白云岩矿体，目前尚未充分开发利用。本文对白云岩矿的地质特征、成因和形成环境等进行了探讨，以引起有关部门和人士的关注，而得以充分开发利用。     

窄岭金矿剪切带基本特征与发展演化模式

河北丰宁窄岭金矿,可以区分3幕Ⅰ级韧性剪切带,1幕Ⅱ级脆韧性剪切带和1幕Ⅲ级脆性剪切带。伴随不同的剪切变形变质作用,分别有花岗岩(红旗菅子群花岗片麻岩)→闪长岩(变闪长岩)→正长斑岩→含金石英脉的侵位。而金矿则是这种多期多阶段构造—岩浆复杂演化使金逐步富集的最终产物。     

福建商专心理健康问题的现状与对策思考

本文通过实证分析福建商专学生存在的心理问题,提出对策,深化了心理咨询工作重要性的认识,并体现了福建商专近年来心理健康教育工作的特色.     

吉林海沟金矿床金属矿物的主要特征

海沟矿床是一个大型金矿床。含金石英脉分布于燕山期二长花岗岩体中,金属矿物的研究表明,矿物以自然金、硫化物(黄铁矿、方铅矿、黄铜矿)为主,伴有少量铀矿物(晶质铀矿、沥青铀矿)及碲化物(碲铅矿、碲金矿)。主要的矿物组合为自然金—石英、自然金—硫化物、石英—方解石,它们分别代表不同成矿阶段,金的最大富集发生于自然金一硫化物阶段,金属矿物的某些特征为矿床成因提供了重要信息,它表明矿床成因上不仅与燕山朔岩浆活动有关,而且也与构造—变质期形成的矿源层有关。     

De produktiestructuur van Nederland in de periode 1950-1966

Summary In 1961 Arrow, Chenery, Minhas and Solow presented their C.E.S. production function, which was based on the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity. They argued that, if the aggregate production function is continuous, lineair and homogeneous, then, with perfect competition and profit maximalization prevailing, the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity is reflection of the production structure. This relation can, therefore, be used for specifying the production structure.In the present paper, the same line of thought is applied to the Dutch economy. Several hypotheses on the relation between wage rate and average labour productivity are tested. Statistically, it turns out that in the Dutch economy the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is not a constant: it declines with increasing capital-labour ratio. Two statistically acceptable production equations that have this feature are presented.The efficiency parameter appearing as an integration constant in both production equations shows a decline: with labour productivity constant, the capital-labour ratio is falling over time. This means that the relation between labour productivity and capital-labour ratio shifts over time. Another outcome of this study is that technical progress is capitalaugmenting and that it brings about 50 percent of the growth in the labour productivity.De schrijvers zijn dank verschuldigd aan Prof. Dr. F. J. de Jong voor zijn stimulerende kritiek en aan de heren J. G. Althuis, F. J. van Bolhuis, J. D. Flikweert, H. Jager en B. S. Wilpstra, assistenten bij de afdeling Algemene Economie van de Economische Faculteit der Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen, voor hun bereidwillige medewerking aan dit onderzoek.     

Gedragsmodellen van de Economische Groei

Summary Two behavioural models of economic growth are developed: a neo-classical and a neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) one.In the neo-classical model consumers aspire to a certain level of consumption. Savings and supply of labour (man-hours) are the means for reaching this level.In the neo-keynesian model firms and households have a certain aspiration level with respect to profits and consumption, respectively. To reach these levels firms decide to invest and households to supply man-hours.In both models growth is entirely dependent on the parameters of the behaviour equations. In this respect they differ from the traditional neo-classical and neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) models, in which growth is eventually determined by autonomous technical progress and growth of the labour force.