The brain drain, ‘educated unemployment’, human capital formation,and economic betterment1

Extending both the ‘harmful brain drain’ literature and the ‘beneficial brain gain’ literature, this paper analyzes both the negative and the positive impact of migration by skilled individuals in a unified framework. The paper extends the received literature on the ‘harmful brain drain’ by showing that in the short run, international migration can result in ‘educated unemployment’ and overeducation in developing countries, as well as a brain drain from these countries. A simulation suggests that the costs of ‘educated unemployment’ and overeducation can amount to significant losses for the individuals concerned, who may constitute a substantial proportion of the educated individuals. Adopting a dynamic framework, it is then shown that due to the positive externality effect of the prevailing, economy‐wide endowment of human capital on the formation of human capital, a relaxation in migration policy in both the current period and the preceding period can facilitate ‘take‐off’ of a developing country in the current period. Thus, it is suggested that while the migration of some educated individuals may reduce the social welfare of those who stay behind in the short run, it improves it in the long run.     

Maternity rights and mothers' return to work

This paper uses a cohort of 12,000 births to examine the effect of maternity rights on mothers' post-birth return to employment decisions. It uses a discrete hazard model to disentangle the effects of the terms of maternity rights entitlements from other factors that influence the timing of a mother's return to work. Mothers with rights have an underlying (but unobserved) stronger attachment to the labour market that prompts earlier return than on average. We take this into account by estimating a counterfactual distribution of return times using a sample of women who failed to qualify for maternity rights but who have similar levels of labour market attachment. Even when differential attachment is taken into account there remains a substantial impact of maternity rights on behaviour.     

Earnings quality: Some evidence on the role of auditor tenure and auditors’ industry expertise

Prior studies suggest that auditors with short tenure are associated with lower earnings quality because of the lack of client-specific knowledge and/or low balling. In this study, we examine whether industry specialization of auditors and low balling affect the association between auditor tenure and earnings quality. We find that the association between shorter auditor tenure and lower earnings quality is weaker for firms audited by industry specialists compared to non-specialists. In addition, we do not find results consistent with the low balling explanation.     

Price competition during and after promotions

We provide a framework for setting regular prices and using promotional discounts in a duopoly where long‐term promotional effects are present and the firms' pricing and promotional strategies are common knowledge (e.g., as in online markets). We show that at equilibrium, the two firms may not promote and instead adopt an Everyday Low Price (EDLP) strategy. Consumers' tendency to stockpile promoted products, the level of brand loyalty and product differentiation, and the possibility of a postpromotional sales increase critically influence regular prices, price discount rates, and profits. Under some conditions consumer stockpiling intensifies promotional competition and reduces firms' profits while the possibility of attracting new consumers reduces the need to heavily promote and ensures better profits. Managerial implications are discussed. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

The paper documents a robust and interesting relationship between the real domestic price of oil and real effective exchange rates for Germany, Japan and the United States. It also offers an explanation of why the real oil price captures exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and why such shocks could be the most important factor determining real exchange rates in the long run.     

Assessing Benefits from Department of Health and National Health Service Research & Development

Public services in the UK are increasingly expected to account for their outputs and performance. This article describes a retrospective evaluation of the benefits from the R&D funded by a regional office of the NHS Executive. The methods adopted enabled the various elements of the region's R&D portfolio to be examined and provided a basis for the development of a plan for regular monitoring. The proposals for implementation are now also feeding into a debate as to how health services R&D might best be monitored nationally in a way that is compatible with the norms and practices of research in other contexts.     

Corporate Data and Future Cash Flows

Abstract:   This article examines the ability of current accounting data to explain future cash flows for UK firms, as disclosed under FRS1 (1991). Rather than examining price data — from which cash flow implications have to be inferred — we follow the more direct approach used in several recent US studies, in which actual future cash flow data are examined. Specifically, our methodology is a development of the OLS regression framework employed by Barth et al. (2001) . We provide a replication of their main OLS analysis, and then extend this to deal with fixed effects and time trends in the levels of cash flow data. Our study finds that the disaggregation of earnings into cash flows and accruals, generates superior explanatory power with regard to future cash flows.     

中国存在走向硬着陆的风险

[美国《时代》周刊11月24日]最近几周从中国传来的消息很吓人。几乎每天都有关于罢工和示威的报道，当中有些是暴力的，有些参与人数上万人。数以百万计的工人正要失业，经济指示器似乎预兆着更为惨淡的前景，10月电子行业生产下降4％，这是十年来首次下降。甚至连看似永不满足的石油需求也在下降：中国国家石油公司近日表示，由于工业生产放缓，最近几个月的需求“大幅度”下降，而且还会进一步下降。