Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

The paper documents a robust and interesting relationship between the real domestic price of oil and real effective exchange rates for Germany, Japan and the United States. It also offers an explanation of why the real oil price captures exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and why such shocks could be the most important factor determining real exchange rates in the long run.     

Assessing Benefits from Department of Health and National Health Service Research & Development

Public services in the UK are increasingly expected to account for their outputs and performance. This article describes a retrospective evaluation of the benefits from the R&D funded by a regional office of the NHS Executive. The methods adopted enabled the various elements of the region's R&D portfolio to be examined and provided a basis for the development of a plan for regular monitoring. The proposals for implementation are now also feeding into a debate as to how health services R&D might best be monitored nationally in a way that is compatible with the norms and practices of research in other contexts.     

Corporate Data and Future Cash Flows

Abstract:   This article examines the ability of current accounting data to explain future cash flows for UK firms, as disclosed under FRS1 (1991). Rather than examining price data — from which cash flow implications have to be inferred — we follow the more direct approach used in several recent US studies, in which actual future cash flow data are examined. Specifically, our methodology is a development of the OLS regression framework employed by Barth et al. (2001) . We provide a replication of their main OLS analysis, and then extend this to deal with fixed effects and time trends in the levels of cash flow data. Our study finds that the disaggregation of earnings into cash flows and accruals, generates superior explanatory power with regard to future cash flows.     

中国存在走向硬着陆的风险

[美国《时代》周刊11月24日]最近几周从中国传来的消息很吓人。几乎每天都有关于罢工和示威的报道，当中有些是暴力的，有些参与人数上万人。数以百万计的工人正要失业，经济指示器似乎预兆着更为惨淡的前景，10月电子行业生产下降4％，这是十年来首次下降。甚至连看似永不满足的石油需求也在下降：中国国家石油公司近日表示，由于工业生产放缓，最近几个月的需求“大幅度”下降，而且还会进一步下降。     

The Reallocation of Labour and the Lifecycle of Firms

This paper uses a unique US panel dataset of firms and workers toinvestigate the relationship between the firm's lifecycle and the reallocation of labour. We distinguish labour reallocation associated with job reallocation, and reallocation of workers over a fixed configuration of jobs. We find that firms at the beginning and end of their lifecycles contribute disproportionately to labour market lows, with sorting between firms particularly important among young firms, whereas sorting within firms is moreimportant among mature firms. We also find that high churning lows are associated with a lower probability of a young firm surviving.     

The ownership and use of small kitchen domestic appliances: case study,Liverpool

The nutritional habits of UK consumers have become a cause for concern with an increasing number of people suffering from diseases related to nutrition. The way in which food is prepared may contribute to the nutritional content of the diet. Traditional methods of cooking and eating are being influenced by increased ownership of domestic appliances. This study aimed to carry out a cross sectional study of people living on Merseyside to determine the ownership and use of small kitchen domestic appliances in relation to the possible consequences the appliances may have on the nutrient intake of the individual. An opportunistic sample of 276 female adults aged 25–70 years was recruited from amongst university staff and community groups within Merseyside. Data were collected using a self‐completion questionnaire consisting of questions concerning personal details, the ownership and use of domestic appliances that may influence nutrient intake. The Liverpool John Moores University Ethics Committee granted ethical approval. Microwave ovens, electric toasters and grills were owned by 80% of the population. Coffee makers, handheld electric food mixers, sandwich makers, blenders and food processors although owned by over 45% were used by the majority only once a week or less. Newer items such as a bread maker were owned by 9% who were significantly more likely to have a professional occupation. Those with unskilled occupations were significantly more likely to own a deep fat fryer and least likely to own a food processor. Those aged 25–34 years were significantly least likely to own a handheld food mixer. Households comprised of couples with or without children were significantly more likely to own sandwich makers, bread makers, food processors and handheld food mixers. No difference in the use of the appliances was found with occupational group or age. A large percentage of people own a variety of domestic appliances, the use of which may have a beneficial effect on their nutrient intake, however, it is of concern that those in the lower socio‐economic group were more likely to own appliances that will have a negative effect on their diet.     

Fertility,social class,gender, and the professional model: statistical explanation and historical significance

In 2012 Barnes and Guinnane published a revised statistical analysis of the critical evaluation of the official 1911 social class model of fertility decline that was presented in chapter 6 of Szreter's Fertility, class and gender in Britain, 1860–1940 (FCG). They argue that the official model of five ranked social classes is, after all, a satisfactory statistical summary of the fertility variance found among the married couples of England and Wales at the famous 1911 fertility census, and so they conclude that, pace Szreter, the official model provides a satisfactory account of the nation's fertility decline as one of social class differentials. It is acknowledged here that Barnes and Guinnane have deployed superior statistical techniques. However, it is pointed out that FCG identified fundamental problems with the design of the 1911 official model. It was a social evolutionary model privileging male professional occupations, not a modelling of recognized social class theory at the time or since. In FCG it was therefore termed ‘the professional model’. The central historiographical claim of FCG is re‐affirmed: that in order to study fruitfully the historical relationship between social class and fertility decline, an alternative approach is needed which explicitly integrates gender relations with social class.     

Schools Out: Adam Smith and Pre-disciplinary International Political Economy

In this article, I argue that invocations of Adam Smith in international political economy (IPE) often reveal the influence therein of a disciplinary ontological disaggregation of economic and non-economic rationality, which I claim is obscured by the tendency to map its complex intellectual contours in terms of competing schools. I trace the origins of the disciplinary characterisation of Smith as the founder of IPE's liberal tradition to invocations of his thought by centrally important figures in the perceived Austrian, Chicago and German historical schools of economics, and reflect upon the significance to IPE of the reiteration of this portrayal by apparent members of its so-called American and British schools. I additionally contrast these interpretations to those put forward by scholars who seek to interpret IPE and Smith's contribution to it in pre-disciplinary terms, which I claim reflects a distinct ontology to that attributed to the British school of IPE with which their work is often associated. I therefore contend that reflection upon invocations of Smith's thought in IPE problematises the longstanding tendency to map its intellectual terrain in terms of competing schools, reveals that the disciplinary ontological consensus that informs this tendency impacts upon articulations of its core concerns and suggests that a pre-disciplinary approach offers an alternative lens through which such concerns might be more effectively framed.     

Wine Tourism as an Opportunity for Tourism Development: Examples of Good Practice in Slovenia

The authors discuss wine tourism activities in the context of general tourism development in Slovenia. The country’s winegrowing areas have developed traditionally important viticulture, a relatively intensive production of typical grape varieties and in some cases also a distinct entrepreneurial spirit, which consequently reflects in tourism and regional development, based on diverse cultural heritage and natural values. Three Slovene wine regions are divided into nine wine districts with their own identities and more or less distinct terroirs. Despite a several centuries’ long tradition and a rich wine culture, it is evident that in national tourism strategies and development plans, wine tourism still does not occupy the position that it probably deserves, although most of the documents stress its potential for local or regional development. On the other hand, the authors recognize a significant interest among winemakers and tourism professionals for strategic cooperation and systematic approach to develop wine tourism in the selected destinations. The authors therefore focus on some paradoxes and emphasize examples of good practice at the national, regional, and local levels.