Capital Flight: China's Experience

We study the empirical determinants of China's capital flight. In addition to the covered interest differential, our empirical exercise includes a rather exhaustive list of macroeconomic variables and a few institutional factors. Overall, our regression exercise shows that China's capital flight is quite well explained by its own history and covered interest differentials. The other possible determinants offer relatively small additional explanatory power. It is also found that China's capital flight responds differently to the components of covered interest differentials and to the positive and negative components of these variables. The response pattern, however, depends on the choice of data frequency. The general impression is that the monthly results are more intuitive than the quarterly ones.     

Investment and the soft budget constraint in China

This paper examines the incentive effects of the soft budget constraint on the investment behavior of firms in general and on the investment-cash flow sensitivity in particular. To this end, we develop a simple model of moral hazard that takes the soft budget constraint into account. Within this moral hazard environment, we show that investment is positively related to the amount of internal funds. We further show that the presence of the soft budget constraint deteriorates the moral hazard problem, thereby making the investment level less sensitive to the amount of internal funds. This is the case irrespective of whether the soft budget constraint renders the firm more or less liquidity constrained. To test the model's empirical implications, we employ data of China's listed companies for the period from 1997 to 2003. We use the share of state ownership as a proxy for the severity of the soft budget constraint. We find strong evidence that firms with larger shares of state ownership exhibit lower investment-cash flow sensitivities than firms with smaller shares of state ownership.     

Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis

This study examines the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth in Japan and Korea using time series data. The results of the Johansen (1988) cointegration method show that real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and terms of trade are jointly determined. Generally, an increase in terms of trade volatility will lead to a decrease in real GDP per capita. An increase in oil price will lead to a decrease in terms of trade. The results of the generalised forecast error variance decompositions show that the important contributors to real GDP per capita are different between Japan and Korea. A favourable and a less volatile terms of trade are important for economic growth.     

谁在“搅乱”电影圈

随着万达院线向上游电影制片渗透．华谊兄弟向下游院线市场迈进。中国民营电影企业面临的产业链失衡问题再次引起关注。但因双方均缺乏对方领域的经验，要想完善这条产业链之路则显得有点“雷声大、雨点小”。     

Earnings Management and the Long-Run Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings

Issuers of initial public offerings (IPOs) can report earnings in excess of cash flows by taking positive accruals. This paper provides evidence that issuers with unusually high accruals in the IPO year experience poor stock return performance in the three years thereafter. IPO issuers in the most "aggressive" quartile of earnings managers have a three-year aftermarket stock return of approximately 20 percent less than IPO issuers in the most "conservative" quartile. They also issue about 20 percent fewer seasoned equity offerings. These differences are statistically and economically significant in a variety of specifications.     

Tax resistance, economy and state transformation in China and Europe

This article considers the distinct ways in which Chinese and European governments have historically approached taxation. The similarities of popular resistance in both regions to taxation deemed illegitimate contrast with the diverse solutions to tax collection put forward under varied political systems. Differences in state relations with elites, the intensity of demands for revenues and the kinds of strategies developed to secure additional funding contribute to the definition of distinct patterns of political change. Tax operations can therefore serve as a useful diagnostic for comparing broader economic and political developments in China and Europe over the past several centuries. Received: August 28, 1999 / Accepted: January 20, 2000     

Growth of Hong Kong Before and After its Reversion to China: The China Factor

The paper focuses on the Hong Kong economy and attempts to measure the contribution of Hong Kong's integration with mainland China to its GDP growth rate. Two linkages have received particular attention, namely, Hong Kong's foreign direct investment (FDI) in China and immigrants from China. While the former is assumed to stimulate capital investment in Hong Kong but at the same time to reduce human capital formation (owing to a shrinkage of its domestic manufacturing sector), the latter is assumed to further reduce Hong Kong's average human capital because immigrants tend to be less educated. By making some assumptions about the future trajectories of Hong Kong direct investment in China and Chinese immigrants into Hong Kong after its reversion to China, the paper offers some predictions about Hong Kong's future economic growth.     

澳大利亚个人理财业的发展与启示

20世纪80年代以来,个人理财业的迅速扩张使得澳大利亚个人理财业发生了根本的变化.与澳大利亚相比,中国个人理财业正处于早期形成阶段,加强理财的教育培训,构建合理的理财经营模式,进行严格的金融监管对个人理财业健康发展十分重要.