The rationality and efficacy of decisions under uncertainty and the value of an experiment

Summary A decision maker faces a known prior distribution over payoff relevant states. We compare the expected utility of this individual under two scenarios. In the first, the decision maker makes a choice without further information. In the second, the decision maker has access to an experiment before choosing an action. However, the decision maker does not know the true joint distribution over states and messages. The value of the experiment as measured by the difference in the two utility levels can be negative as well as positive. We give a condition which is necessary and sufficient for the experiment to be valuable in our sense, for any decision problem.An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title Noisy Bayes Updating and the Value of Information. We have gained from the comments of Stephen Coate, John Geanakoplos, Larry Samuelson, Timothy Van Zandt and seminar participants at Harvard Business School, Princeton, Boston University, the international conference on game theory at Stony Brook 1992 and the Winter meeting of the Econometric Society at Anaheim 1993. The first author received support for this project from NSF grant #SES-9308515 and a University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation Grant.     

A spatial equilibrium analysis of trade policy reforms on the world wheat market

Since a few countries produce most of the world's wheat, and consumption is widespread across the world, wheat is one of the most commonly traded agricultural commodities. In recent years, the wheat market has been going through difficult phases as wheat prices are depressed. The fall in wheat prices is attributed to a supply glut and restrictive trade barriers. This study develops a large-scale spatial equilibrium trade model for wheat to analyse the effects of removing trade barriers (tariffs and subsidies) on each country's/region's price, supply, demand, trade, welfare, and bilateral trade flows. The results show that trade liberalization leads to an increase (decrease) in prices in the exporting (importing) countries. Production and exports increase in the exporting country, and consumption and imports increase in the importing country. Consequently, the volume of trade also increases. The welfare of most countries rises, and thus, world welfare also rises.     

Mutual fund separation in financial theory—The separating distributions

This paper finds necessary and sufficient conditions on the stochastic structure of asset returns for portfolio choice to be equivalent to choice among a limited number of mutual funds of assets, independent of investors' preferences. This type of separation result is central to modern financial theory and the distributions which satisfy these conditions, the separating distributions, form the underlying basis for much of this theory.     

Advertising directed to children: A look at the mother's point of view

The issue of whether to ban children's advertising from television has generated quite a controversy over the past several years. One view of the controversy which has received little attention, however, is the mothers'. This paper looks at those mothers who are both pro can con with regard to the idea of banning children's advertising. Bold Advertising     

The role of private information in return volatility,bid–ask spreads and price levels in the foreign exchange market

Trading volume and order flow have both been closely associated with informed trader activity in the market microstructure literature. Using theory that explains regular intraday patterns in trading data, we transform these two variables into proxies for private information and examine their relationships with bid–ask spreads and return volatility. We use a unique and unusually rich high-frequency intraday dataset from the world's largest financial market, namely, the electronic inter-dealer spot foreign exchange market. Our analysis takes account of institutional features peculiar to this order-driven market. Our empirical results strongly affirm our theoretical understanding of how these markets work. They also reveal how the structure of the inter-dealer spot FX market affects exchange rate volatility. Finally, we also explore how private information contributes to the evolution of prices.     

The professor-consultant: An important marketing resource

There has been little published on the topic of marketing consultants. The literature void is even more pronounced when a major source of outside expertise, the professor-consultant, is examined. The authors have surveyed marketing academicians to determine their attitudes toward consulting and the scope and nature of their consulting activities along with the kinds of clients for whom they work. The findings show that professors hold generally favorable attitudes toward consulting and work in a wide range of topical areas while serving many diverse clients.     

Reply to the Discussion Note on the “The Effect of IFRS Adoption Conditional Upon the Level of Pre-adoption Divergence”

Pathak (2014) has raised both conceptual and methodological questions about Cai, Rahman, and Courtenay (2014). In this reply, we attempt to address the questions. The discussion arising from these questions suggests that IFRS adoption and the implications of IFRS are complex issues. Cai et al. (2014) try to illustrate that IFRS adoption is not a single-step solution. It has various stages. Some countries take gradual steps towards IFRS adoption and others embrace IFRS in one big step. Cai et al. (2014) also explain that IFRS adoption is associated with other institutional arrangements within a country. The issue of the manner in which IFRS is adopted across countries needs further investigation to better assess the country level impediments of IFRS adoption and how IFRS adoption affects market efficiency.     

Robust anomalies? A close look at accrual‐based trading strategy returns

The last 40 years have seen an extensive literature documenting so‐called anomalies in major capital markets. Evidence of ‘abnormal’ returns associated with trading strategies based on readily observable phenomena such as accounting‐based data involves experimental design choices that can be expected to influence the results. We show how evidence of an accrual anomaly in Australia is sensitive to research design specifications such as the choice of proxy for total accruals; the definition of abnormal returns (i.e. the return generating model); the impact of data trimming as a response to exceptionally large returns; and the choice between value and equal weighting of returns. We show that research design choices do matter and help reconcile conflicting prior evidence of any accrual anomaly in Australia. More broadly, our results suggest the need for caution in drawing inferences from trading strategy tests which claim to identify anomalies.