The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil

This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model.     

“连接自然与文化” ① ：西方哲学背景下 的全球议题

文化遗产保护是动态发展的概念，总结了文化景观 的3类意义：1)文化景观作为物质实体；2)文化景观作为概念 和过程；3)文化景观作为方法和工具。指出当前世界遗产及 文化景观保护中存在的自然和文化分离现象，揭示了西方哲学 的二元两分法的背景根源。介绍了IUCN和ICOMOS为融合 自然与文化而进行的“连接实践项目”和“自然文化之旅”2 个项目，推广他们在不同地理和文化背景下，为更好地连接自 然与文化遗产的治理和管理实践所作出的杰出贡献和引领作 用，主张非西方原住民社区、地方社区应该在推进“自然文化 之旅”工作中占有核心地位。     

A theory of persistent income inequality

This paper explores the dynamics of income inequality by studying the evolution of human capital investment and neighborhood choice for a population of families. Parents affect the conditional probability distribution of their children's income through the choice of a neighborhood in which to live. Neighborhood location affects children both through local public finance of education as well as through sociological effects. These forces combine to create incentives for wealthier families to segregate themselves into economically homogeneous neighborhoods. Economic stratification combines with strong neighborhoodwide feedback effects to transmit economic status across generations, leading to persistent income inequality.     

Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment

Abstract
This article looks at the evolution of corporate balance sheets and investment over the past few years .
We find that many companies have significantly improved their balance sheets in this time. Leverage has been reduced, and this, coupled with lower nominal interest rates, has improved the interest cover and cash flows of the corporate sector. For many firms, the process of balance sheet repair has proceeded a long way so that the extent to which the financial position of firms will impinge on investment is much lower than it was a few years ago.
Looking further ahead, it appears that the rate of return to investing in capital is relatively high, at least when judged against the standards of earlier downturns. With the recovery picking up pace we should, therefore, see firms more inclined to expand their capital expenditure and less focused on financial restructuring.     

Experimental evidence of gender effects in arbitration decisions

The study investigates arbitrator gender and arbitrator-grievant gender effects on the decisions of 146 arbitrators rendered on a hypothetical sexual harassment case. Gender was not found to have a statistically significant effect on the decisions examined. However, other characteristics of the arbitrator—level of experience and level of education—were found to influence the arbitral decision.     

A quantitative approach to stakeholder interests

In an age when the role, behaviour and performance of the firm are under greater scrutiny than ever before, it is important to pursue quantitative empirical research in the area of social auditing. Using data relating to one particular company, the various inputs and outputs attributable to the firm's different stakeholders, (shareholders, employees, consumers and the community) are examined and corresponding rates of return calculated. Considerable methodological and data problems arise and consequently the results need careful interpretation.     

A sequential selectivity model of the decisions of arbitrators

The study investigates arbitrator gender and grievant gender effects on the decisions of 146 arbitrators rendered on a hypothetical drug-testing case. The effects are estimated using a sequential selectivity model. This approach takes into account the sequential and conditional nature of arbitrators' decisions. The results indicate that arbitrators are more likely to overturn terminations when the grievant is female, and that female arbitrators are less likely to fully reinstate grievants when the termination is overturned. Other results include the finding that older arbitrators treated grievants more harshly by more often awarding only partial reinstatements. When suspensions are given, however, we find that older arbitrators award shorter suspensions than do younger arbitrators. It is also found that more experienced arbitrators awarded longer suspensions than less experienced arbitrators.     

The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging

This paper considers the extent to which South African households have deleveraged, since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. We extend the official South African Reserve Bank business cycle methodology to date financial cycles, from which we identify the peaks and troughs of the South African financial cycle going back to 1966. Our composite financial cycle index peaks in April 1974, January 1984 and May 2007; it has bottomed out in July 1979 and February 1999. Thus, we still await the trough. We further compare and contrast the deleveraging process in the current downward phase to the experiences from previous financial cycles. We find that the average period of the financial cycle in South Africa is much longer (approximately 17.3 years) than that of the business cycle (approximately 5.8 years), and that deleveraging has not yet matched the degree of deleveraging seen in previous downward phases. Our results suggest that further deleveraging is necessary, before we can expect to turn the financial corner.     

Heterogeneous country responses to the Great Recession: the role of supply chains

Review of World Economics - The one time shock of the Great Recession in 2008/9 opens up the opportunity to study the sensitivity of countries to global economic shocks. Some countries are more...