A DISEQUILIBRIUM INTERPRETATION OF KALDOR'S TECHNICAL PROGRESS FUNCTION*

This note examines the nature of underlying production function to Kaldor's technical progress function. It has been found that in the context of disequilibrium between planned savings and investment the history of capital accumulation becomes crucial.     

Analysis of marginally specified semi-nonparametric models for clustered binary data

Generalized linear mixed models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. If the primary interest is in regression parameters, one can proceed alternatively, through the marginal mean model approach. In the present study, a joint model consisting of a marginal mean model and a cluster-specific conditional mean model is considered. This model is useful when both time-independent and time-dependent covariates are available. Furthermore our model is semi-parametric, as we assume a flexible, smooth semi-nonparametric density of the cluster-specific effects. This semi-nonparametric density-based approach outperforms the approach based on normality assumption with respect to some important features of 'between-cluster variation'. We employ a full likelihood-based approach and apply the Monte Carlo EM algorithm to analyze the model. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the consistency of the approach. Finally, we apply this to a study of long-term illness data.     

Fertility and Economic Growth: Do Immigrant Maids Play a Role?

A significant source of child-care services in East and South-East Asia are provided by immigrant maids. Using a modified version of the model used in Galor and Weil (1996), the present paper analyses the impact of this source of child-care services on women's labor market participation, fertility behavior and the household purchase of child-care services. The results show that a lower price for the maid service leads to a lower savings rate, a higher demand for children and less time being spent with children. We also find that hiring immigrant maids leads to lower economic growth in the long run.     

Parameter nonstationarity in retail choice models

The question of spatial nonstationarity in retail choice models generally has been ignored in the literature. This paper discusses why such nonstationarity might arise and presents an empirical test of nonstationarity in grocery choice data collected from a midwestern city. Based on these findings a nonstationarity retail choice model is proposed. The nonstationary model predicts data from a hold-out sample better than the stationary model.     

DATA REVISION AND MARKET RESPONSE: THE CASE OF UNITED STATES TRADE BALANCE ANNOUNCEMENTS†

ABSTRACT In this paper we study economic news, as reflected in the announcements of the United States trade balance by the Commerce department, to illustrate the importance of revised data versus preliminary data to economic agents. A new methodology has been developed here to study how agents in the exchange market respond to these monthly trade balance announcements and consequently, move the dollar's exchange rate. In contrast to previous studies where agent reactions to only preliminary trade figures were analyzed, this method is applied to examine market reactions to the preliminary and revised trade balance figures.     

The covariates of regularity in purchase timing

An examination of the timing of consumers' purchases for coffee reveals that consumers vary a great deal in terms of the regularity of their purchasing behavior. Some consumers make purchases at seemingly random time intervals, while others purchase at highly regular intervals. The measurement of regularity in purchase timing, as well as the identification of its covariates, is important in many contexts such as modeling purchase incidence and sales forecasting. We measure the degree of regularity among a sample of coffee purchasers and identify several consumer characteristics that vary with the degree of regularity in purchase timing. Results show that regularity in purchase timing is related to brand loyalty, store loyalty and deal proneness, as well as to certain pattern of routinization by the households, and that regularity may be used, along with other aspects of purchase behavior, to provide a basis for market segmentation.The authors wish to acknowledge the support of Information Resources Inc. for providing the data, and are grateful to Professor Jane T. Landwehr, University of Delaware, for her help.     

Tests of functional form in dynamic econometric models: Some empirical experience

Econometric theory has provided several rival tests of functional form specifications in economic relations, but there is little empirical experience in using many of them. This note reports some practical applications, and compares the performance of various tests, in specifying dynamic econometric models.     

Trade and expropriation

We examine the effect of international trade on expropriation in a setting where law enforcement is costly. We show that, in general equilibrium, trade liberalization can reduce expropriation activities and have a first-order effect on the gains from trade. One interpretation of our results is that unskilled-labor abundant countries facing popular militia or rebel groups will experience amplified gains from trade, as expropriation levels and cost of enforcement decline with trade liberalization. However, the model also admits the possibility that globalization causes an increase in crime, particularly for skilled-labor abundant countries.     

Does IPO Pricing Reflect Public Information? New Insights from Equity Carve‐Outs

We examine the efficiency of initial public offering (IPO) pricing using a sample of over 300 equity carve‐outs from 1985 to 2009. The partial adjustment theory posits that the initial return of IPOs is predictable based on private information, but public information is fully incorporated. Prospect theory is consistent with both private and public information not being fully incorporated in the offer price. Our analysis confirms that both price update and initial return of carve‐out IPOs can be predicted based on the parent firm's returns during the prepricing and preissuing periods. Further, postissue ownership of the parent firm is associated with significantly higher price update and initial return, while IPOs where the majority of the proceeds are paid out register lower initial return. The size of the subsidiary and relative size of the offering are also significantly related to price update and initial return. These findings are consistent with prospect theory.