Value at risk forecasting for volatility index

Forecasts of values at risk (VaRs) are made for volatility indices such as the VIX for the US S&P 500 index, the VKOSPI for the KOSPI (Korea Stock Price Index) and the OVX (oil volatility index) for crude oil funds, which is the first in the literature. In the forecasts, dominant features of the volatility indices are addressed: long memory, conditional heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. An out-of-sample comparison of the VaR forecasts is made in terms of violation probabilities, showing better performance of the proposed method than several competing methods which consider the features differently from ours. The proposed method is composed of heterogeneous autoregressive model for the mean, GARCH model for the volatility and skew-t distribution for the error.     

Asymmetric Exchange Rates and Unofficial Exchange Rate Interventions: The Case of South Korea

Applying Milton Friedman's ‘plucking’ model of output fluctuations, we investigate the behavior of the Korean won/dollar exchange rate using a state-space model with Markov switching, which incorporates both symmetric and asymmetric shocks. We find that the Korean won/US dollar exchange rate rarely falls below its trend, but is plucked upward from time to time by transitory shocks. This asymmetry suggests that the monetary authority unofficially intervenes in the foreign exchange market to support its own target level from below. Further evidence from changes in reserve assets indirectly supports our finding.     

Strategic choice during economic crisis: Domestic market position,organizational capabilities and export flexibility

This study examines how sudden shrinkage of domestic demand affects firm-level export performance. Using the Asian economic crisis as a natural experiment, we show that while the industrial organization (IO) economics and resource-based view (RBV) apply well in the pre-crisis period, the real options perspective does a better job in explaining firms’ efforts to increase exports in the post-crisis period. Specifically, using a real options perspective, we show how sudden change in domestic demand provides benefits to those firms that have invested in flexible capabilities while those firms that are locked in with inflexible resources fail to change. We find that the positive relationship between a firm's domestic market position and export intensity becomes stronger in the post-crisis than the pre-crisis period. Further, we find a positive relationship between non-location-bound flexible capabilities such as R&D and export intensity and a negative relationship between location-bound inflexible capabilities such as advertising and export intensity. These relationships become more pronounced in the post-crisis period.     

The Influence of Plan Demographics on Contribution Behavior of 401(k) Participants

This article examines the influence of plan demographics, which is defined as the salary and tenure composition of a plan, on contribution behavior of 401(k) participants. Results using a large sample of 401(k) plans show that plan demographics influence participant contribution rates directly or through interaction with individual demographic characteristics. A participant's contribution rate can be varied by 1.6–3.0 percentage points for each age between 25 and 64, depending on what plan demographics she is exposed to. In addition, for the decision to contribute the maximum allowed amount, plan demographics significantly interact with individual demographic characteristics.     

CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

EAST ASIAN REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: DO THEY PROMOTE GLOBAL FREE TRADE?

Abstract.  We quantitatively evaluate the effects different paths have on East Asian Regional Trade Agreements (RTA), which include expansionary, duplicate and overlapping RTAs. By applying a computable general equilibrium model analysis, we find that the static effect of existing, proposed and negotiating East Asian RTAs on world and members' welfare is sufficiently positive. It will lead to non-discriminatory global free trade, by triggering the domino effect of regionalism if the RTAs take an expansionary path by cooperating with each other, in contrast to competing to achieve the first mover advantage, or hub self-interest.     

The changing pattern of industrial technology linkage structure of Korea: Did the ICT industry play a role in the 1980s and 1990s?

The notion of the knowledge-based economy highlights the strategic importance of inter-industrial knowledge flows. Among others, the crucial role of information and communications technology (ICT) industry is emphasized. The pattern whereby technological knowledge is created, accumulated and disseminated through the interactive learning among industries can be portrayed as a network. Based on the network theory, this empirical study analyses, from the dynamic perspective, inter-industrial technological knowledge structure of Korean industries during the reference period of early 1980s to mid-1990s. Overall, the density of the network increased over time, implying that the knowledge network has expanded and intensified. The role of the ICT industry in the global network has also increased but needs to be further strengthened, especially informatization of non-ICT industries by the outflow of ICT industrial knowledge in the future. The findings in turn render some important policy implications that should be addressed in developing technology policy.     

Implementation of interorganizational cost management and its infrastructure: the case of a Korean ‘Chaebol’ firm

In this paper, purchasing innovation in the case of a distribution company is analysed from an interorganizational cost management (IOCM) perspective. In this company, purchasing costs play an important strategic role. This study suggests that a new practice of IOCM is necessary that is suitable for Korea's economic circumstances, including the family-controlled conglomerates (Chaebols) that dominate the entire economic system. The strong need to reduce purchasing costs within Chaebols and the Korean government policy that promotes joint growth of large and small firms are crucial factors in the successful implementation of IOCM practices. We also discuss the infrastructure that enables effective IOCM in the long term, thereby adding new findings to academic research in the area, and practical implications of this benchmark case for other companies planning purchasing innovations.     

From Voids to Sophistication: Institutional Environment and MNC CSR Crisis in Emerging Markets

Why do multinational corporations (MNCs) frequently encounter corporate social responsibility (CSR) crises in leading emerging markets in the new century? Existing research about institutional impacts on MNC CSR has developed a void-based account about how the flawed institutional system allows misdeeds to happen. But the fact that such misdeeds have turned into increasing CSR crises in the new century along with institutional change is rarely taken into account. This paper combines studies of institutional voids, institutional entrepreneurship, and stakeholder theory to develop a concept of institutional sophistication, which refers to both the top-down maturation of the regulatory system that standardizes firm behavior and the bottom-up diversification and intensification of grassroots initiatives that redefine stakeholder membership. Based on this concept, we developed a framework to comprehensively demonstrate how both institutional voids and sophistication drive the MNC CSR crisis in leading emerging markets. Empirically, we established an original database that includes 309 publicized CSR crises encountered by major foreign MNCs in China, India, and Russia, 2000–2011. Through a content analysis, the paper reveals six common sophistication processes that drive the MNC crisis across contexts and also specifies stakeholder strategies that make these processes happen and vary by social problems and national contexts. We also discussed the value of studying corporate social irresponsible behavior in understanding the institution–MNC relationship.