Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data

This paper uses a panel of 17 advanced countries over the annual period of 1899–2013, to analyze for the first time, the role played by geopolitical risks in predicting recessions. After controlling for other standard predictors based on a logit model, we find that while aggregate geopolitical risks do not have any predictive ability, geopolitical acts enhance the probability of future recessions, with geopolitical threats reducing the same.     

危机迫使中国向内看

中国是否能够与美国、德国在出口市场上竞争并不是很重要，问题是，中国要在与美国、德国在中国国内市场展开竞争时，具有竞争力。     

User acceptance of complex electronic market mechanisms: Role of information feedback

This paper broadens the scope of evaluating the design of economic mechanisms that is traditionally done solely from an economic perspective. We introduce and demonstrate the application of acceptability to evaluate complex economic mechanisms. In particular, we apply our approach to the evaluation of continuous combinatorial auctions, which represent a complex, sophisticated market mechanism that has not been generally available in the online marketplace but has the potential to enhance the economic efficiency of trade for assets with interdependent values. Such auctions are being increasingly used in industry, e.g., to procure logistical services. Intuitively, acceptance and usage of a complex mechanism can be fostered by a design that provides information and tools that meet the users’ task demands. Based on prior research and an analysis of the auction tasks, we discuss practical and innovative information feedback schemes for reducing the cognitive burden of formulating bids in combinatorial auctions. Then, we use constructs from the technology acceptance model (TAM) – which have been consistently shown to be key determinants of technology acceptance in the extant literature – to compare the acceptability of the mechanism under three different information regimes. In addition, we borrow constructs from marketing theory to assess the potential growth in adoption of the mechanism. We compare user perceptions of the three alternative designs in a laboratory experiment with over 130 subjects. Our study constitutes a complementary and novel approach in evaluating the design of complex economic mechanisms. Results indicate a higher adoption and usage potential of the mechanism with advanced information feedback, supporting the potential of combinatorial auctions as a user-acceptable market mechanism with appropriate feedback.     

Skilled–unskilled wage inequality,product variety,public input and increasing returns: A static general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a four sector small open economy model with two traded final good sectors, a public intermediate good producing sector and a nontraded good sector producing varieties of intermediate goods. There are three primary factors: capital, skilled labour and unskilled labour. Industrial sector producing a traded good uses capital, intermediate goods and skilled labour as inputs. Intermediate goods producing sector also uses capital and skilled labour. Public input producing sector and the agricultural sector producing the other traded good use capital and unskilled labour as inputs. It is shown that, if production technologies are the same for the agricultural sector and the public input producing sector and if the scale elasticity of output is very low, then an increase in capital stock (unskilled labour endowment) raises (lowers) the skilled–unskilled wage ratio. However, an increase in skilled labour endowment does not produce any unambiguous effect. On the other hand, an increase in the tax rate on industrial output and/or an increase in the price of the agricultural product, armed with the same set of assumptions, lowers the skilled–unskilled wage ratio.     

Individual entrepreneurial orientation role in shaping reactions to new technologies

Significant progress has been made over the last two decades in explaining and predicting user acceptance of novel technologies at work. Although knowledge voids remain, substantial theoretical and empirical support has accumulated in favor of the powerful and parsimonious explanation provided by the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). One factor that may be related to the adoption of new technologies, but has remained unexplored in the TAM literature, is the proclivity to behave entrepreneurially, known nominally as individual entrepreneurial orientation. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the role of individual entrepreneurial orientation in facilitating technology adoption under mandated conditions. Predictions are tested using survey data collected from knowledge workers required to use a new technology. Research directions and limitations are discussed.     

On a Class of Asymptotically Risk-Efficient Sequential Procedures

A class of sequential procedures is developed for the point estimation of the parameter(s) of a population under a family of loss functions plus cost function of the general form. Condition on the initial sample size is determined which ensures the asymptotic ‘risk-efficiency’ of the proposed class. By means of various examples, it is shown that many sequential point estimation problems can be handled with the help of the proposed class.     

Political Accountability and Fiscal Federalism

In a model with democratic institutions and three jurisdictions, we study the allocation and welfare in a one-level (unitary) and a two-level (federal) government, given that the central government finds it optimal to discriminate in favor of two jurisdictions and against the third. Favored jurisdictions are at least as well off in a unitary structure as compared to a federal one, while this may not be so for the jurisdiction discriminated against. We finally show that jurisdiction-specific electoral uncertainty is consistent with both equitable as well as discriminating allocations.     

On three and five parameter bivariate beta distributions

Summary In this paper two bivariate beta distributions have been studied. The five parameter bivariate beta distribution is derived from the Morgenstern-system of curves while the three parameter distribution is the bivariate Dirichlet distribution. In both cases the distributions of the product and the quotient of random variables are derived and other properties are also studied.     

A new process capability index

In this paper a new process capability index (C _pq ) has been introduced, which is easy to compute and performs well when compared with its natural competitor (C _pm ). Work done while he was Lukacs Visiting Professor on leave from the University of Maryland.     

Gendered cognitions: a socio-cognitive model of how gender affects entrepreneurial preferences

ABSTRACT

This research explores the social-cognitive factors which lead both women and men to pursue ventures consistent with their gendered social identity, therefore, reinforcing the gender gap in entrepreneurship. We measured the self-assessments of individuals presented with experimentally manipulated entrepreneurial opportunities that were either consistent or inconsistent with their self-reported gender. A theoretical model derived from Social Role Theory is presented and tested. It posits that a gender match (mismatch) with the entrepreneurial opportunity results in higher (lower) reported self-efficacy, anticipated social resources, and venture desirability and lower (higher) venture risk perceptions. The experimental data are tested in a sequential mediation SEM model. We find evidence that self-efficacy and anticipated social resources mediate the effect of gender congruency on perceived risk and venture desirability. The results provide insight into the insidious barriers that play a role in reproducing a gender gap in entrepreneurial outcomes by ‘nudging’ women into lower-return ventures in less lucrative industries.