South African stock return predictability in the context data mining: The role of financial variables and international stock returns

In this paper, we examine the predictive ability, both in-sample and the out-of-sample, for South African stock returns using a number of financial variables, based on monthly data with an in-sample period covering 1990:01 to 1996:12 and the out-of-sample period of 1997:01 to 2010:04. We use the t-statistic corresponding to the slope coefficient in a predictive regression model for in-sample predictions, while for the out-of-sample, the MSE-F and the ENC-NEW tests statistics with good power properties were utilised. To guard against data mining, a bootstrap procedure was employed for calculating the critical values of both the in-sample and out-of-sample test statistics. Furthermore, we use a procedure that combines in-sample general-to-specific model selection with out-of-sample tests of predictive ability to further analyse the predictive power of each financial variable. Our results show that, for the in-sample test statistic, only the stock returns for our major trading partners have predictive power at certain short and long run horizons. For the out-of-sample tests, the Treasury bill rate and the term spread together with the stock returns for our major trading partners show predictive power both at short and long run horizons. When accounting for data mining, the maximal out-of-sample test statistics become insignificant from 6-months onward suggesting that the evidence of the out-of-sample predictability at longer horizons is due to data mining. The general-to-specific model shows that valuation ratios contain very useful information that explains the behaviour of stock returns, despite their inability to predict stock return at any horizon. The model also highlights the role of multiple variables in predicting stock returns at medium- to long run horizons.     

Priorities and sequencing in privatization: Evidence from Czech firm panel data

While privatization of state-owned enterprises has been one of the most important aspects of the economic transition from a centrally planned to a market system, no transition economy has privatized all its firms simultaneously. This raises the question of whether governments privatize firms strategically. In this paper we examine the determinants of the sequencing of privatization. To obtain testable predictions about the factors that may affect sequencing, we investigate the following competing government objectives: (i) Maximizing efficiency through resource allocation; (ii) maximizing public goodwill from the free transfers of shares to the public; (iii) minimizing political costs; (iv) maximizing efficiency through information gains; and (v) maximizing privatization revenues. Next, we use firm-level data from the Czech Republic to test the competing predictions about the sequencing of privatization. Consistent with the hypotheses of a government priority on revenues and public goodwill, we find strong evidence that more profitable firms were privatized first. The sequencing of privatization is also consistent with maximizing efficiency through information gains. Our results indicate that many empirical studies of the effects of privatization on firm performance suffer from a selection bias.     

Wage Determination of a Child Worker: A Theoretical Analysis

A theory of wage determination of a child worker is presented using the consumption efficiency hypothesis and the Nash bargaining technique. The employer and the guardian of the child play the bargaining game. The model shows some interesting results regarding the split of the wage between the consumption of the child and the income of the guardian.     

Congruence between technology and compensation systems: implications for strategy implementation

This paper examines the interactive relationship between the use of integrated manufacturing and compensation practices in predicting several aspects of plant performance in the concrete pipe industry. We predicted that compensation practices reinforcing collective effort, teamwork, and flexibility (team incentives and skill-based pay) enhance the effectiveness of integrated manufacturing systems (total quality management and advanced manufacturing technology), while practices inhibiting cooperation and teamwork among employees (individual incentives and seniority-based pay) impede it. Results provide moderate support for the congruence model across several measures of plant effectiveness (labor hours per ton, lost-time accidents, perceptual performance, and customer satisfaction). Implications of the research are addressed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Integrated Model of Debt Issuance, Refunding, and Maturity

We integrate previous work in this area and develop a multiperiod model that simultaneously determines bond refunding, bond issuance, maturity structure, cash holdings, and bank borrowing policies. The focus here is on providing the required debt funds in the most cost efficient fashion. A strength of the model is that it allows for time varying interest costs, transaction costs, issuance costs, and refunding costs to be firm specific. The output of the model lays out the optimal financing decisions for each time interval that minimize the total discounted cost of providing the funds that match the requisite funds. By limiting the surplus funds available, the model minimizes the management incentive to over invest and thereby reduces the agency costs. The model has economic implications for the financing decisions and the firm's default risk, growth opportunities, riskiness of cash flows, and firm size. JEL Classification: G30     

Ethical orientations of managers in Malaysia

In view of the heightened societal attention to the ethical aspects of business behaviour, there has been, in recent years, a great deal of discussion regarding individual and organisational factors influencing managerial decision making. The main focus of this paper is on understanding the attitudes of managers toward ethical dimension of their choices and judgments, as also the forces that pressurise, provide them with opportunities, or contribute to shaping their intentions, for ethical or unethical actions. Findings reported here are based on a questionnaire-survey of 381 managers from 41 commercial organisations in Malaysia.Dr. J. L. Gupta is Professor at National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Pune, India. He has authored two books on management and has published several research articles on the subject of Leadership and Ethics. His teaching and research interests lie in the areas of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resource Development.Mohamed Sulaiman is Professor of Management at University of Science Malaysia (USM), Penang. He has authored several research monographs and published articles in reputed business journals. His teaching and research interests lie in the areas of Corporate Policy and Strategic Management, Organisation Design and Marketing. Dr Mohamed Sulaiman is currently the Dean of School of Management, USM.     

Gains from Corporate Multinationalism: Evidence from the China Experience

This paper examines the valuation impact of U.S. multinational corporations' expansion into the Peoples Republic of China (PRC during 1979 to 1987. The market response to the announcement of a firm's initial entry into the PRC is found to be positive and statistically significant, suggesting that expansion into China was a value-enhancing activity. Equity joint venture modes of entry are found to result in greater shareholder gains than nonequity expansion modes. The influence of degree of multinationality, market share, growth, and technology-related variables on the size of shareholder gains is also analyzed.     

Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals

We employ a 10-variable dynamic structural general equilibrium model to forecast the US real house price index as well as its downturn in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in our forecasting exercise to compare to the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, estimated using Bayesian methods. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also include the information content of either 10 or 120 quarterly series in some models to capture the influence of fundamentals. We consider two approaches for including information from large data sets — extracting common factors (principle components) in factor-augmented vector autoregressive or Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregressive models as well as Bayesian shrinkage in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model. We compare the out-of-sample forecast performance of the alternative models, using the average root mean squared error for the forecasts. We find that the small-scale Bayesian-shrinkage model (10 variables) outperforms the other models, including the large-scale Bayesian-shrinkage model (120 variables). In addition, when we use simple average forecast combinations, the combination forecast using the 10 best atheoretical models produces the minimum RMSEs compared to each of the individual models, followed closely by the combination forecast using the 10 atheoretical models and the DSGE model. Finally, we use each model to forecast the downturn point in 2006:Q2, using the estimated model through 2005:Q2. Only the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model actually forecasts a downturn with any accuracy, suggesting that forward-looking microfounded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the housing market may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.     

Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

Using a panel of 46 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2008, this paper investigates the key determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both political and fiscal factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, particularly during financial turmoil. Efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries with high initial public debt levels. The composition of fiscal policy also matters as higher public investment lowers spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen.