Money substitutes and monetary policy in the U.K., 1922–1974

In the U.K., following the publication of the Radcliffe Report, it was widely believed that monetary policy was impotent because any attempt to make use of monetary policy would be fully offset by perfect money substitutes which were not controlled by the monetary authorities. This paper tests whether such substitutes exist. The technique is to fit a money demand function to a long run of data allowing the interest elasticity to vary from observation to observation, and using a procedure which permits infinite values of the elasticity. It was found that, although the elasticity does vary, no observation was consistent with the Radcliffe view. This was true for both interest rates tried, and the function proved very stable when tested. We conclude that the Radcliffe Hypothesis can be decisively rejected.     

Polanyi’s ‘substantive approach’ to the economy in action? Conceptualising social enterprise as a public health ‘intervention’

For several decades now, critical public health researchers have highlighted the deleterious effects that pursuing neoliberal policies can have on the ‘causes of the causes’ of poor health and upon growing health inequalities. This paper argues that the conceptual tools of Karl Polanyi can help lend particular insight into this issue. The specific example that this paper focuses upon is the ‘social enterprise’: a form of organisation that combines both social and business objectives. The paper explores, conceptually, whether social enterprises may have the potential to act as one component of a neo-Polanyian countermovement: helping to re-embed the economy back into society, and offering greater recognition for a more comprehensive and socially imbued concept of health. Importantly, this potential is critically examined in the context of neoliberal hegemony, where challenges to the status quo have regularly been met with assimilation, co-option and/or repression.     

The welfare effect of income tax deductions for losses as insurance: Insured- versus insurer-sided adverse selection

Kaplow (1992) shows in a complete-information environment that allowing income tax deductions for losses as partial insurance is undesirable in the presence of private insurance markets. This paper elaborates on Kaplow's finding by studying two extreme types of asymmetric information structures in private insurance markets: Either the insured or insurers possess superior information. It is shown that our derived result is consistent with Kaplow's if the insured have superior information; however, Kaplow's negative conclusion with respect to the income tax deduction will be overturned if insurers have superior information instead. A policy implication from our finding is that whether or not to allow an income tax deduction for losses needs to be more refined and, specifically, it should be tailored to the “adverse selection” information structures of private insurance.     

The globalization of the rule of law and human rights

The third millenium will be a defining period for the future of human rights worldwide. In the second millenium, rudimentary concepts of human rights emerged, evolved, expanded and ultimately were woven into an intricate and detailed web of rights that has been globally enunciated, but not yet universally recognized and enforced. Since World War II, developments have occurred at an escalating pace. The UN and the World Court have been established. Criminal tribunals have been created, and regional courts and regional security organizations have been installed. There is growing recognition that rulers of nations must be subject to civil and criminal jurisdiction of international law. At the close of the second millenium we are witnessing the first ever indictment of a sitting ruler for violations of international criminal law. Despite important progress, many obstacles must be overcome before the rule of law will prevail globally.     

A simplified pricing model for volatility futures

We develop a general model to price VIX futures contracts. The model is adapted to test both the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross formulations, with and without jumps. Empirical tests on VIX futures prices provide out‐of‐sample estimates within 2% of the actual futures price for almost all futures maturities. We show that although jumps are present in the data, the models with jumps do not typically outperform the others; in particular, we demonstrate the important benefits of the CEV feature in pricing futures contracts. We conclude by examining errors in the model relative to the VIX characteristics. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:307–339, 2011     

GAAP versus The Street: An Empirical Assessment of Two Alternative Definitions of Earnings

Managers, security analysts, investors, and the press rely increasingly on modified definitions of GAAP net income, known by such names as "operating" and "pro forma" earnings. We document this phenomenon and discuss competing explanations for the recent rise in the use of such modified earnings numbers and implications for the interpretation of related accounting research. Our results show that over the past 20 years there has been a dramatic increase in the frequency and magnitude of cases where "GAAP" and "Street" earnings differ. Further, there is a very strong bias toward the reporting of a Street earnings number that exceeds the GAAP earnings number. We also show that the market response to the Street earnings number has displaced GAAP earnings as a primary determinant of stock prices. Finally, through an analysis of earnings releases, we show that management has taken a proactive role in defining and emphasizing the Street number when communicating to analysts and investors.     

A Filtering Process to Remove the Stochastic Component from Intraday Seasonal Volatility

The intraday seasonal variance pattern contains stochastic as well as deterministic components. Therefore, the estimation of information arrivals in the associated volatility process requires the proper filtering of both of these seasonal components. However, popular current models remove only the deterministic part of the typical U‐shape volatility. Here, we provide the first empirical results of the importance of the stochastic component, as developed by Cho and Daigler (2012). We show that a highly significant additional 8.5% to 12.9% of the total seasonal variance is explained by the stochastic seasonal variance component for S&P500 futures, live cattle futures, and the Japanese yen‐U.S. dollar spot exchange rate. Moreover, we show that the stochastic seasonal filtering model implemented here does not create any statistical distortions of the filtered series, as occurs with deterministic‐based seasonal adjustment processes, as well as comparing the model examined here with the most popular current deterministic model. As part of our analysis we examine the application of the model to macroeconomic news and out‐of‐sample results for the model. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:479–495, 2014     

Contextual Innovation Management Using a Stage‐Gate Platform: The Case of Philips Shaving and Beauty

To improve its innovation process, Philips Shaving and Beauty (S&B) designed a blueprint for its innovation process. Although it has proved to be quite effective, it has experienced a lack of efficiency, in terms of frequent cost and time overruns, in the fuzzy front end of this process. We suggest a contextual innovation management approach to set up a stage‐gate‐based innovation process platform and thus improve the efficiency in the fuzzy front end, which means that, for different contexts, stage‐gate process variants will be designed from which unnecessary activities are removed and important activities are emphasized. The design is based on the identification of relevant contextual factors to develop variations of the common innovation process within Philips S&B. We distinguished different variants of the innovation processes within Philips S&B that can increase the efficiency in the fuzzy front end. Based on interviews within and outside Philips S&B, we identified problems and potential solutions with regard to efficiency in eight recently finished innovation processes. The results indicate that the most important contextual factors are the distinction between incremental and radical innovations, and between market and technology‐based innovations. We used these factors to design three variants on the basic platform of the stage‐gate process.