Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies

This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations suggest that 1 percentage point shock to the inflation rate can reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.7 percentage points on average across countries, while the estimated impulse responses are a little larger and more persistent. Additional assumptions taking into account financial repression do not necessarily make these effects substantially larger. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce the public debt burden only marginally.     

Firm age and the evolution of borrowing costs: Evidence from Japanese small firms

This paper investigates how firms’ borrowing costs evolve as they age. Using a new panel data set of about 100,000 bank-dependent small firms for 1997–2002 and focusing on the channel of “adaptation” (i.e., surviving firms’ borrowing costs decline as they age) and that of “selection” (i.e., total borrowing costs decline as defaulting firms exit), we find that the reputation hypothesis suggested by Diamond (1989) provides a more plausible explanation of the downward sloping age profile of borrowing costs than the firm dynamics (Cooley and Quadrini, 2001) or the relationship banking (Boot and Thakor, 1994) hypothesis. In addition, we examine whether the firm selection process in Japan has been natural or unnatural. Our findings suggest that it has been natural in that firms with lower quality are separated, face higher borrowing costs, and are eventually forced to exit, which contrasts with the results of previous studies on credit allocations in Japan, including Peek and Rosengren (2005). Further, we find that the evolution of borrowing costs is partially due to selection but is mainly attributable to adaptation.     

Inside the learning dynamism inducing the resonance between innovation and high-demand consumption: A case of Japan's high-functional mobile phones

Confronting the simultaneous global economic stagnation that has resulted in diminishing consumption, a new driver which can instill in customers an exciting story with their own initiative and thrills them with gratification of consumption is essential. Japan's mobile phone driven innovation may provide a constructive suggestion to this requirement.On the basis of an empirical analysis focusing on the learning dynamism for innovative products in Japan's digital industry, this paper demonstrates the foregoing hypothetical anticipation. Based on measurement of dynamic learning coefficients for seven leading innovative products centered on mobile phones, the Granger causal test, Chow forecast test and wavelet analysis were conducted, and the significant role of mobile phones in leveraging broad dissemination, learning and absorption of core technologies essential to the advancement of digital industry was identified. Furthermore, significant role of demanding customers in inducing resonance between mobile phones learning and that of innovative products was demonstrated.     

A NOTE ON MEASURING SECTORAL INPUT PRODUCTIVITY*

This note attempts to shed some light on the relationship between the total factor productivity derived from national income accounts and the total input productivity based upon input-output accounts, especially on a sectoral basis. Since there has been no positive evidence to support a constancy between changes in net and gross output in individual industries, the formulation of a measure of sectoral input productivity change by using the formula of the Divisia index based on input-output accounts may be valuable in examining possible biases which are associated with a common notion of the total factor productivity. An operational definition of sectoral input productivity change and its relation to sectoral total factor productivity are discussed in the present note, in addition to its empirical application to the Japanese data.     

A model of merchants

I propose a simple model of merchants who are specialized in buying and selling a homogeneous good. Facing the same frictions as in the buyer-seller direct trades, merchants can make profits with an ability to buy and sell many units of the good. They set the price to compete in the market and provide buyers with a strong likelihood of obtaining the good. This paper establishes a turnover equilibrium where some agents choose to become merchants endogenously. An interesting multiplicity can emerge.     

Share issuance and cross-sectional returns: International evidence

Share issuance predicts cross-sectional returns in a non-U.S. sample of stocks from 41 different countries. Issuance predictability has greater statistical significance than either size or momentum, and is similar to book-to-market. As in the U.S., the international issuance effect is robust across both small and large firms. Unlike the U.S., the effect is driven more by low returns after share creation rather than positive returns following share repurchases. Issuance return predictability is stronger in countries with greater issuance activity, greater stock market development, and stronger investor protection. The results suggest that the share issuance effect is related to the ease with which firms can issue and repurchase their shares.