ON THE CONSISTENT CONJECTURES EQUILIBRIUM OF EXPORT SUBSIDY GAME

This paper explores an export subsidy game in an international duopoly in which governments of countries as well as firms hold conjectures about the response of other governments. In the framework with linear demand/quadratic cost functions, a homogeneous good and no home consumption, I shall obtain the relations among the conjectural variation of firms, that of governments, and the optimal subsidies for countries. And I shall show that if and only if firms hold the consistent conjectures, Nash type behavior (zero conjectural variation) of governments is consistent.     

Free Trade and its Enemies

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Free Trade and its Enemies     

The Macroeconomic Implications of the New Basel Accord

This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of BaselII in light of recent development in the literature. It arguesthat although Basel II is likely to strengthen banks' incentivesto control their risk-taking, it may reduce credit supply tocertain borrowers, such as small- and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) and firms based in developing countries. Furthermore,Basel II may increase procyclical fluctuation of bank loanswhile weakening the monetary transmission mechanism during recessions.A widespread adoption of the "through-the-cycle" risk modelsmay mitigate these problems, but not completely eliminate them.This paper also considers whether monetary policy can be usedto counter effectively the procyclicality problem inherent inBasel II. (JEL E52, G21, G28)     

Competitiveness of Firm Behavior and Public Policy for New Technology Adoption in an Oligopoly

Economic growth requires that firms adopt new technologies. However, it may be insufficient or excessive in less competitive industries from the social welfare point of view. In this case, a government subsidy or tax is necessary. We analyze the optimum subsidy or tax policy for new technology adoption by firms when firms maximize the weighted average of absolute and relative profits. We do not consider that firms really maximize the weighted average, but the weight on the relative profit is used as a parameter indicating competitiveness of firm behavior. We show that the optimum policy is likely to be subsidization (or taxation) when the set-up cost for new technology adoption is large (or small). It is likely to be subsidization (or taxation) when competitiveness is large (or small), that is, it is near to perfect competition (or joint profit maximization).     

Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model

Stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored regional correlations in agricultural yields, assuming random shocks to be independent between regions. This could lead to misinterpretation of simulation outputs which ignore extreme positive or negative harvests at the global scale. We develop a multi‐regional CGE model which allows for five types of interregional correlation between wheat yields to analyse the vulnerability of countries against fluctuating international markets, focusing on Value at Risk (VaR) and extreme dependency. We find that global welfare risks could be underestimated by up to 33% if significant interregional correlations in yield shocks are not taken into account. Egypt, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Northern Africa are particularly vulnerable to global volatilities in terms of economic welfare.     

Rice productivity improvement in Cambodia through the application of technical recommendation in a farmer field school

Innovation in rice (Oryza sativa) productivity improvement is a major goal for rice research. However, many studies have tended to analyse the various factors that affect productivity separately, while farmers invest their scare resources in farm inputs that impact on multiple factors in the real farm. This study assessed the effectiveness of integrated pest management practised during farmer field school (FFS) training in Cambodia on the production efficiencies, yields and profitability of rice farming. In total, 270 FFSs on rice cultivated in the early wet, wet and dry seasons were randomly selected from three provinces in 3 years to analyse the production practices and productivity using six cost-related factors: seed, planting methods, field management, fertilizer use, pesticide application and harvesting. It was found that yields and profits were significantly higher with the technically recommended practices (TRs) than with traditional farmer practices (FPs). However, the reverse was true for production costs due to the overuse of seed and pesticides in FP, neither of which are correlated with yield increase for both FP and TR. Thus, the FFS approach is a knowledge-intensive field management tool that enables the rational use of farm inputs and that is expected to be highly effective for sustainable rice production improvement.     

Firm Heterogeneity and FDI in Distribution Services

Distribution services play a large role in intermediating production and consumption across borders. Using firm‐level data on Japanese multinationals in wholesale and retail sectors, this study examines FDI decisions of distribution firms for local distribution services at the extensive and intensive margin. Consistent with the model of heterogeneous firms on multinational production, I find that more productive multinationals are more likely than less productive multinationals to enter a larger number of markets, to penetrate less attractive markets and to generate larger sales per each market. While these findings are consistent with previous evidence on manufacturing multinationals, I find some distinctive determinants of FDI in distribution services.