Export diversification and real exchange rate in emerging Latin America and Asia: A South–North vs. South-South decomposition

The present paper examines the directional causality between export diversification and real exchange rate in the middle-income countries of Asia and Latin America over the period from 1995 to 2013. Additionally, we investigate asymmetries in the causality issue by examining the direction across trading partners.

Our empirical results show that there is a two-way causality between the two variables when we look at the sample as a whole. A causal link running from the real exchange rate to export diversification is consistent with the standard literature but it is not systematic at all. The reverse causation is very appealing and challenges the standard argument on exchange rate determination. When the causality issue is investigated by treating export markets differently, our findings at the aggregate level are confirmed in exports destined for the advanced countries. The analysis for ‘South-South’ trade only shows a unidirectional link from the real exchange rate to changes in export diversification. The same tests performed at the individual countries level reveal a heterogeneous causality across trading partners.     

Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Australian Firm Panel Data

This paper investigates the key drivers of fixed firm investment of listed non‐financial companies in Australia over the period from 1987 to 2009. A Tobin's q model of investment is augmented to account for the effect of economic uncertainty on the investment decision. The effects of Tobin's q, sales and cash flows on firm investment rate are also analysed and discussed. Consistent with existing literature, this research finds clear evidence of negative effects of both macroeconomic and firm idiosyncratic uncertainty on Australian firm investment. However, evidence also shows that firm‐specific uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than macroeconomic uncertainty.     

The interplay of human and social capital in shaping entrepreneurial performance: the case of Vietnam

This study investigates the effects of human capital, social capital and their interaction on the performance of 1,398 Vietnamese new-born firms. Operating profit is used as the measure of success. Human capital is captured by individual-level professional education, start-up experience, and learning. Whereas the first two dimensions of human capital are measured with traditional indicators, we define learning as the ability to accumulate knowledge to conduct innovation activities (new product introduction, product innovation and process innovation). Social capital is measured as benefits obtained from personal strong-tie and weak-tie networks. Key findings are threefold: (i) human capital strongly predicts firm success, with learning exhibiting a statistically significant positive association with operating profit, (ii) benefits from weak ties outweigh those from strong ties, (iii) interaction of human capital and social capital displays a statistically significant positive effect on new-firm performance.     

Intermediate levels of property rights and the emerging housing market in Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam

Vietnam introduced a Policy of Renovation (‘Doi Moi’ Policy) to restructure the economy in 1986. Under this policy, the Land Use Right Certificate was introduced as a form of tenure for agricultural land and urban land, according to the Land Laws of 1987 and 1993, respectively. However, by 2001, most properties and/or land in Vietnam still did not have a legal title. Although Vietnam's land reforms in the 1990s provided some of the weakest private rights among the transition countries, big cities like Ho Chi Minh City are presently homes to thriving housing markets. Transactions of ‘property without a physical entity and legal title’ in the real estate market show how property ownership can be formed in order to operate within different institutional contexts. This paper highlights that ‘intermediate levels of property rights’ are the driving forces behind the thriving housing market in Ho Chi Minh City.     

Predicting the sample mean by extreme order statistics

Summary This paper considers the prediction of the sample mean by extreme order statistics when the population distribution is known. The predictor and its mean square error are found. The problem is studied in details for the normal model.     

Analysis of the technical efficiency of state rubber farms in Vietnam

This study entails an analysis of the technical efficiency of natural rubber production by state farms in Vietnam. A time-varying stochastic frontier production function model for unbalanced data is estimated for 33 farms. Individual farm technical efficiencies are reported and discussed. One of the main results concerns the bimodal distribution of technical efficiency indices. A few farms operate near the production frontier while the bulk operate well away from the frontier. Some implications are drawn from the results as a guide to future policy research work in the rubber industry in light of recent moves by the Vietnamese government towards economic reform.     

The extension of social security coverage in developing countries

We study the dynamic general equilibrium effects of introducing a social pension program to elderly informal sector workers in developing countries who lack formal risk sharing mechanisms against income and longevity risks. To this end, we formulate a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates defining features of developing countries: a large informal sector, private transfers as an informal safety net, and a non-universal social security system. We find that the extension of retirement benefits to informal sector workers results in efficiency losses due to adverse effects on capital accumulation and the allocation of resources across formal and informal sectors. Despite these losses recipients of social pensions experience welfare gains as the positive insurance effects attributed to the extension of a social insurance system dominate. The welfare gains crucially depend on the skill distribution, private intra-family transfers and the specific tax used to finance the expansion.     

The market price of fiscal uncertainty

Recent fiscal interventions have raised concerns about US public debt, future distortionary tax pressure, and long-run growth potential. We explore the long-run implications of public financing policies aimed at short-run stabilization when: (i) agents are sensitive to model uncertainty, as in Hansen and Sargent (2007), and (ii) growth is endogenous, as in Romer (1990). We find that countercyclical deficit policies promoting short-run stabilization reduce the price of model uncertainty at the cost of significantly increasing the amount of long-run risk. Ultimately these tax policies depress innovation and long-run growth and may produce welfare losses.     

Subnational home market bias in Vietnam: Evidence from enterprise‐level data

This paper contributes to the home (market) bias literature where administrative or political borders limit trade across borders. Home bias is well documented at the national and subnational level. To sort out macro (e.g., location characteristics) and micro (e.g., enterprise characteristics) factors behind home bias, we use small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) data from Vietnam. Using the fractional multinomial logit model, we find that the proportion of SME sales outside of their home markets is positively associated with enterprise size, age, number of business association memberships and the distance of SMEs' most important supplier. In contrast, the proportion of SME sales to neighbouring provinces is negatively associated with the share of SME production for final consumption. Besides enterprise‐level frictions, market characteristics matter too. The proportion of SME sales to customers in their home markets is negatively associated with home or neighbouring provinces' governance quality, while the proportion of sales to customers in neighbouring provinces is positively associated with these areas' governance quality. These suggest that good governance frees SME resources for use in selling to less familiar markets.     

Research collaboration model in academic social networks

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a hybrid collaboration recommendation method that accounts for research similarities and the previous research cooperation network. Research cooperation is measured by combining the collaboration time and the number of co-authors who already collaborated with at least one scientist. Research similarity is based on authors’ previous publications and academic events they attended. A weighted directed graph is built to discover new collaborators by using direct and indirect connections between scientists. Moreover, a consensus-based system is built to integrate bibliography data from different sources. The experimental results show that our method improves the recommendation performances over other methods.