Causality and wage price inflation in West Germany 1964–1979

Zusammenfassung Kausalit?t und Lohn-Preis-Inflation in Westdeutschland 1964–1979. — In diesem Aufsatz wird ein Vierteljahresmodell der Lohn- und PreisInflation in Westdeutschland (1964 bis 1978) entwickelt. Es verwendet das Konzept der Phillips-Kurve, betont aber die überprüfbare Lohndruck-Hypothese und enth?lt die folgenden sechs Variablen: Konsumentenpreise, Effektivl?hne, Streiks, Tarifl?hne, Nachfrage nach Arbeitskr?ften und die Geldmenge M 1. Mit Hilfe des Konzepts der Wiener-Granger-Kausalit?t und kürzlich entwickelter Methoden der multivariaten Zeitreihenanalyse entsteht ein empirisches Kausalit?tsmodell der Lohn-Preis-Inflation für Westdeutschland. Dieses Modell stützt in starkem Ma\e die Lohndruck-Theorie und weist der Geldversorgung eine unbedeutende Rolle zu. Eine zweiseitige Kausalit?t besteht zwischen den Effektiv- und den Tarifl?hnen, so da\ es unangebracht ist, zeitlich verteilte Lags anzunehmen für die Tarifl?hne in der Lohngleichung oder umgekehrt für die Effektivl?hne in der Gleichung der Tarifl?hne. W?hrend sich als Hauptursache der Lohninflation die Inflationserwartungen und die Tarifl?hne identifizieren lassen, geh?ren zu den wichtigsten Ursachen der Preisinflation die erwarteten Preissteigerungen und die Erh?hung der Kapazit?tsauslastung.

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Résumé Causalité et l’inflation de prix et de salaire en Allemagne de l’Ouest 1964–1979. — Dans cet article l’auteur formule un modèle trimestriel de l’inflation de salaire et de prix pour l’Allemagne de l’Ouest sur la période de 1964.1 à 1978.4. Le modèle utilise les éléments fondamentaux de la courbe de Phillips, mais souligne l’hypothèse testable des déterminants de ?wage-push? et consiste de six variables économiques principales: les prix de consommation, les salaires nominaux, les grèves, les salaires contractuels minimum, la demande de la main-d’oeuvre et les disponibilités monétaires (M1). L’auteur applique le concept de causalité de Wiener-Granger aussi bien que des méthodes des séries chronologiques multivariates développées récemment et obtient un modèle empirique de causalité. Le modèle fortement supporte la théorie de ?wage-push? et révèle un r?le insignifiant des disponibilités monétaires. Une causalité deux-voies peut être observée entre les salaires nominaux et les salaires contractuels minimum. Par conséquent, il n’est pas indiqué de spécifier une structure des décalages retards distribués pour les salaires contractuels dans l’équation de salaire ou, qui est équivalent, pour les salaires nominaux dans l’équation de salaires contractuels minimum. Pendant que l’inflation anticipée et les salaires contractuels sont regardés comme les causes principales de l’inflation de salaire les facteurs décisifs de l’inflation de prix incluent les augmentations des prix attendues et l’augmentation de l’utilisation des capacités.

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Resumen Causalidad e inflation salarios-precios en Alemania Occidental 1964–1979. — En este artícule se formula un modelo trimestral de inflatión de salarios y precios para Alemania Occidental en el período 1964.1 a 1978.4. Este modelo se basa en la racionalidad de la curva de Phillips pero pone enfasis en la hipótesis comprobable de determinantes de presión de salarios y consiste de seis variables económicas importantes: precios al consumidor, salarios monetarios, huelgas, tasas de salarios mínimos negociados, demanda por trabajo y oferta de dinero M1. Usando el concepto de causalidad Wiener-Granger y métodos de series de tiempo multivariables desarrollados recientemente se obtiene un modelo empérico causal de inflatión salarios precios para Alemania Occidental. Este modelo da fuerte apoyo a la teoría de presión de salarios y revela un papel insignificante para la oferta de dinero. Hay una doble causalidad (o de feedback) presente entre salarios monetarios y tasas salariales minimas negociadas y, tomo tal, la práctica de especificar una estructura de rezago distribuida para estas tasas salariales en la ecuación de salarios, o equivalentemente, para salarios monetarios en la ecuación de tasas salariales mínimas negociadas es inapropiada. Mientras que las principales causas de la inflatión salarial se pueden identificar como inflatión anticipada y tasas salariales mínimas negociadas, las principales causas de la inflatión de precios incluyen aumentos de precios esperados y el aumento de la capacidad utilizada.

     

On the choice of functional form in stochastic frontier modeling

This paper examines the effect of functional form specification on the estimation of technical efficiency using a panel data set of 125 olive-growing farms in Greece for the period 1987–93. The generalized quadratic Box-Cox transformation is used to test the relative performance of alternative, widely used, functional forms and to examine the effect of prior choice on final efficiency estimates. Other than the functional specifications nested within the Box-Cox transformation, the comparative analysis includes the minflex Laurent translog and generalized Leontief that possess desirable approximation properties. The results indicate that technical efficiency measures are very sensitive to the choice of functional specification. Perhaps most importantly, the choice of functional form affects the identification of the factors affecting individual performance – the sources of technical inefficiency. The analysis also shows that while specification searches do narrow down the set of feasible alternatives, the identification of the most appropriate functional specification might not always be (statistically) feasible. First version received: November 1999/Final version received: July 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  The authors wish to thank Almas Heshmati, Robert Romain, and an anonymous referee for insightful comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to the associate editor who handled the paper, and whose careful reading and suggestions have improved the paper substantially. The second author wishes to acknowledge the financial support from “President SSHRC” from the University of Saskatchewan. The usual caveats with respect to opinions expressed in the paper apply. Senior authorship is shared. This is University of Nebraska-Lincoln Agricultural Research Division Article No. 13270.     

Does rising import competition harm local firm productivity in less advanced economies? Evidence from the Vietnam's manufacturing sector

This paper examines whether rising import penetration has an effect on the productivity of domestic firms. The study uses data on a 10-year unbalanced panel of firms in the manufacturing sector in Vietnam from 2000 to 2009. Panel and instrumental variable methods are used to control firm heterogeneity and endogeneity of import penetration. We find statistically significant and negative effects of import competition on local firms’ productivity, but the effect in terms of magnitude is economically small. Further investigation shows no clear evidence of variations in the effects by firm size and technological level. However, we find that rising import penetration is associated with the likelihood of firm death.     

APPLICATIONS OF BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS TO TAX EVASION

The paper reviews recent models that have applied the techniques of behavioural economics to the analysis of the tax compliance choice of an individual taxpayer. The construction of these models is motivated by the failure of the Yitzhaki version of the Allingham–Sandmo model to predict correctly the proportion of taxpayers who will evade and the effect of an increase in the tax rate upon the chosen level of evasion. Recent approaches have applied non‐expected utility theory to the compliance decision and have addressed social interaction. The models we describe are able to match the observed extent of evasion and correctly predict the tax effect but do not have the parsimony or precision of the Yitzhaki model.     

Home Care Providers in Queensland: Exploratory Data Analysis Using My Aged Care Platform

The My Aged Care website, established by the Australian Government, is the starting point for aged care consumers and carers to find information on aged care providers. Using information published on this platform, we compile a unique dataset of 588 approved home care providers in Queensland. This article presents a brief introduction to this dataset, including how they are extracted and what variables are available. We propose some current and future applications of this data with a focus on how it can contribute to evidence-based policymaking in Australia.     

An Extended Ricardian Model Incorporating a Consumption Time Constraint

This paper investigates the impact of incorporating a Gossenian?Beckerian consumption time constraint into a simple Ricardian model. It is shown that in such a model the consumption gain from trade is zero, the specialization gain can be negative and a small nation devotes less labor to production after trade.     

A taxonomic review of methods and tools applied in technology assessment

Technology Assessment (TA) has been a growing field of management study for the past four decades. An increasing number of studies have been carried out over the years contributing to the development of TA literature. Some of these studies summarized the history and growth of the field during its evolution. However, there has been no effort made to present an overview of the methods and tools that have been cited in TA literature. This paper attempts to fill that void. A thorough review of the TA articles published in leading journals in the management of technology field is conducted to identify the research methods or tools in those studies. The paper provides an introductory review of the use of technology assessment terminology during its development, which helps the readers avoid the confusion of the TA concept since its origination in public decision making forty years ago and where it is now — widely adopted in other sectors. A thorough presentation of the approaches, methods and tools that have been introduced or employed in both mainstream TA and “inverted TA” studies is then provided. The main content of the paper is related to the works published in leading international journals that involve certain research methods or techniques.     

Firm Efficiency in a Transitional Economy: Evidence from Vietnam

The paper examines efficiency performance of the non-state small and medium manufacturing industries in a transitional and developing economy. Using firm level data in Vietnam from 1996 and 2001, cross-sectional models are estimated using the stochastic frontier method. The results show a considerable variation in efficiency levels among firms and that a greater use of family labor and a metropolitan location are associated with improvement in technical efficiency. The results indicate few benefits from direct government financial and non-financial assistance to businesses.