Does Firm Size make a Difference? Analysing the Effectiveness of R&D Subsidies in East Germany

We analyse the impact of public subsidies on private sector research and development (R&D) activity for a sample of East German firms. Using propensity score matching, our empirical results indicate that subsidized firms indeed show a higher level of R&D intensity (R&D expenditures relative to total turnover) and a higher probability for patent application compared with non‐subsidized firms. We find that, on average, the R&D intensity increases from 1.5% to 3.9%. The probability of patent application rises from 20% to 40%. These results closely match earlier empirical findings for East Germany. Given the fact that the East German innovation system is particularly driven by small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), we draw special attention to the effectiveness of R&D subsidies for this latter subgroup. Here, no specific empirical evidence is available so far. Our findings indicate that policy effectiveness also holds for private R&D activity of SMEs, with the highest increase in terms of R&D intensity being estimated for microbusinesses with up to ten employees.     

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Pandemie verzögert Aufschwung — Demografie bremst Wachstum

Wirtschaftsdienst - Das erste Jahr der Corona-Pandemie stand in Deutschland im Zeichen extremer Schwankungen der ökonomischen Aktivität und einer massiv gelähmten Binnenwirtschaft....     

Dynamic stochastic analysis of the farm subsidy-efficiency link: evidence from France

The existing literature on the subsidy-efficiency nexus is almost exclusively based on static modelling and thus ignores the inter-temporal nature of production decisions. The present paper contributes to this literature by developing a dynamic stochastic frontier model, which is then estimated using a sample of French farms over the period 1992–2011. For comparison purposes, the static counterpart of the dynamic model is also estimated. The results indicate that, in the dynamic case as well as in the static one, public subsidies are negatively associated with farm technical efficiency. Nevertheless, these linkages are found to be weak, and they are much weaker when dynamic aspects are taken into account.     

Local environment as a pitfall in the performance measurement of multi-site operations

The purpose of this paper is to disseminate an empirical observation that the external environment influences the data from performance metrics in a multi-site field service setting. The observation is made from real performance measurement data from 29 local units of a machinery manufacturer. We propose that the heterogeneity of local environments increases Type I and Type II errors in evaluating performance against targets and reduces the comparability of local units. These findings imply distortions in the managerial control effect of performance measurement and in decision making on interventions and improvements. As a practical implication, this study emphasizes the need for contextual understanding in the proper use of performance measurement numbers.     

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Ohne russisches Gas droht eine scharfe Rezession in Deutschland

Wirtschaftsdienst - Die deutsche Wirtschaft steuert durch schwieriges Fahrwasser. Die Auftriebskräfte durch den Wegfall der Pandemiebeschränkungen, die Nachwehen der Coronakrise und die...     

Aufschwung verliert an Fahrt – Weltwirtschaftliches Klima wird rauer

The economic upturn in Germany is entering its sixth year but is losing momentum due to both demand and supply side factors. On the one hand, Germany’s key sales markets have weakened in line with the slowdown in world trade. On the other hand, a growing number of firms face production side bottlenecks, especially in terms of labour and sourcing intermediate goods. This coincides with problems in the automotive industry related to the introduction of the new World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP), which has affected gross domestic product (GDP) growth due to the branch’s economic weight. These adjustment problems, however, should be overcome over the course of the winter. Fiscal stimuli will also take effect as of the beginning of 2019. After 1.7 % growth this year, GDP will increase at rates of 1.9 % in 2019 and 1.8 % in 2020.     

The Spending Multiplier in the Medium Run

Most of the discussion about fiscal stimulus focuses on the multiplier of government spending on impact. In this paper we shift the focus to the multiplier at the end, i.e., to the period in which a deficit spending program terminates. We show that recent time‐series analyses and neoclassical as well new Keynesian business cycle models predict that the multiplier turns negative before spending expires. This means that aggregate output at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it could be without deficit spending. Here, we show why this phenomenon is a general outcome of mainstream business cycle theory and explain the underlying mechanism. Using phase diagram analysis, we prove that the aggregate capital stock at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it would be without a deficit spending program. This fact explains why aggregate output is below its laissez faire level as well.     

Switching costs and relationship profits in bank lending

This paper studies how the cost of switching banks affects the profits available from relationship based lending when the relationship produces inside information. Lower switching cost compounds the adverse selection problem, discouraging outsider banks to depress loan rates. The adverse selection effect eases off along with higher switching cost, leading to more aggressive bidding and thereby reduction in insider profits. Above a certain threshold, however, the adverse selection effect vanishes completely and the insider profits turn increasing in the switching cost. The model predicts that the availability of relationship credit is non-monotonously related to the magnitude of the switching cost.     

‘Relationship Banking and SMEs: A Theoretical Analysis’

Reliable information on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is rare and costly for financial intermediaries. Therefore relationship banking is often considered as the appropriate lending technique. In this paper we offer a theoretical model to analyze relationship banking and the pricing behavior of banks in a Bertrand competition framework with monitoring costs. We show that the lack of reliable information leads to comparable high interest rates even if a long-term relationship between borrower and bank exists. The paper offers a theoretical explanation why SMEs often are faced with borrowing constraints. We are grateful to Franziska Holz, Caroline Kip, Claudia Nassif, Dorothea Schaefer, Philipp Schroeder, the DIW financial market group and an anonymous referee for valuable comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model

In two recent papers, Granger and Ding (1995a,b) considered long return series that are first differences of logarithmed price series or price indices. They established a set of temporal and distributional properties for such series and suggested that the returns are well characterized by the double exponential distribution. The present paper shows that a mixture of normal variables with zero mean can generate series with most of the properties Granger and Ding singled out. In that case, the temporal higher-order dependence observed in return series may be described by a hidden Markov model. Such a model is estimated for ten subseries of the well-known S&P 500 return series of about 17,000 daily observations. It reproduces the stylized facts of Granger and Ding quite well, but the parameter estimates of the model sometimes vary considerably from one subseries to the next. The implications of these results are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.