Why banks should keep secrets

Summary. We show that it is sometimes efficient for a bank to commit to a policy that keeps information about its risky assets private. Our model, based upon Diamond-Dybvig (1983), has the feature that banks acquire information about their risky assets before depositors acquire it. A bank has the option of using contracts where the middle-period return on deposits is contingent on this information, but by doing so it must also reveal the information. We derive the conditions on depositors preferences and banking technology for which a bank would prefer to keep information secret even though it must then use a non-contingent deposit contract.Received: 5 November 2002, Revised: 19 December 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D8, G21, G28.I would like to thank an anonymous referee, Sudipto Bhattacharya, Ed Green, Chandra Kanodia, Andy McLennan, Arijit Mukherji, Bradley Ruffle, Neil Wallace, Warren Weber, and especially Nobu Kiyotaki for useful comments and suggestions.     

Communication of preferences in contests for contracts

This paper models a contest where several sellers compete for a contract with a single buyer. There are several styles of possible designs with a subset of them preferred by the buyer. We examine what happens when the buyer communicates information about his preferences. If the sellers are unable to change their style, then there is no effect on the welfare of the sellers. If the sellers are able to make adjustments, extra information may either boost or damage the sellers?? profits. While the chance that there will be a proposal of a style preferred by the buyer cannot decrease, the buyer??s surplus may increase or decrease.     

IMPROVING FORECAST ACCURACY BY COMBINING RECURSIVE AND ROLLING FORECASTS*

This article presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on combining recursive and rolling forecasts when linear predictive models are subject to structural change. Using a characterization of the bias–variance trade‐off faced when choosing between either the recursive and rolling schemes or a scalar convex combination of the two, we derive optimal observation windows and combining weights designed to minimize mean square forecast error. Monte Carlo experiments and several empirical examples indicate that combination can often provide improvements in forecast accuracy relative to forecasts made using the recursive scheme or the rolling scheme with a fixed window width.     

Aggregate spillovers magnify the welfare benefits of tax reform

Relatively small degrees of aggregate increasing returns to scale ubstantially magnify both welfare benefits and income effects associated with tax reform. External returns to scale of 10 per cent increase the welfare benefits of tax reform by roughly one-third and increase changes in income by significantly more than a model characterized by constant returns to scale. Aggregate spillovers of 20 per cent increase welfare benefits by roughly three-fourths. Aggregate spillovers significantly reduce tax revenue-maximizing capital tax rates. This research convincingly demonstrates the importance of precisely identifying the degree of aggregate returns to scale before the benefits of tax reform can be accurately assessed. JEL Classification: E62, O40
Des degrés relativement faibles de rendements croissants à l'échelle augmentent substantiellement les effets positifs de bien-être et les effets de revenus associés à une réforme fiscale. Des rendements externes à l'échelle de 10 pour-cent accroissent les effets positifs de bien-être d'une réforme fiscale d'un bon tiers, et les effets de revenus d'une manière significative par rapport à ce qui'ils seraient dans le cas de rendements constants à l'échelle. Des effets agrégés de retombée de 20 pour-cent augmentent les effets positifs de bien-être des trois quarts. Ces effets agrégés de retombée tendent à réduire les taux d'imposition du capital qui maximisent les revenus. Ces travaux montrent l'importance d'une identification précise du degré des rendements agrégés à l'échelle si l'on veut jauger avec justesse les effets positifs de bien-être d'une réforme fiscale.     

The possibility of mixed-strategy equilibria with constant-returns-to-scale technology under Bertrand competition

Abstract. We analyze the Nash equilibria of a standard Bertrand model. We show that in addition to the marginal-cost pricing equilibrium there is a possibility for mixed-strategy equilibria yielding positive profit levels. We characterize these equilibria and find that having unbounded revenues is the necessary and sufficient condition for their existence. Hence, we demonstrate that under realistic assumptions the only equilibrium is marginal-cost pricing.     

On Input Market Frictions and Estimation of Factors' Demand

In this article, we explore the impact of imperfectly competitive input markets on production function estimation. First‐order profit‐maximizing conditions are altered when frictions in input markets cause the elasticity of input supply to the firm to be finite. A consequence of this is that the standard econometric model used for production function estimation will be misspecified. We prove that, in all nontrivial cases, finite elasticities of supply to the firm will lead to inconsistent estimates of production function parameters. Monte Carlo simulations show that the resulting bias can be economically significant.     

Quantifying alternate futures of religion and religions

Writers on the future of religion are usually drawn to extreme portrayals of decline or revival of religion. However, the world’s religious situation is replete with detailed information, drawn from enormous data collections on religious affiliation and questions about religion in government censuses. Quantitative tools, utilizing this information in the context of demography—births, deaths, conversions, defections, immigration, and emigration, provide a more nuanced view of mankind’s religious future. Alternate futures of religious affiliation can be produced by extrapolating explicit assumptions related to these six areas. Demographic trends coupled with conservative estimates of conversions and defections envision over 80% of the world’s population will continue to be affiliated to religions 200 years into the future.