How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.     

Ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry applied to web applications: The case of Microsoft's vs. Google's office applications

This paper analyzes the question whether web applications pose a disruptive threat to incumbents or a disruptive growth opportunity for entrants in the application software industry using a novel method for ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry. Building on the theory of disruptive innovations, network effects and existing frameworks for the ex ante identification of disruptive innovations a new method of analysis is deduced. The analysis is based on a list of criteria that indicate a disruptive innovation and trajectory maps of the technologies' performance attributes. This method is applied to study the potential disruption of Microsoft's desktop office applications by Google's web-based office applications.The chosen method of analysis indicates a small likelihood for web applications to pose a disruptive threat to Microsoft, and by extension, to incumbents in the software industry. While web applications show a potential to satisfy market demand in established performance attributes, strong network effects in existing software products should give incumbents enough time to co-opt the innovation. The case illustrates how our new method to analyze disruptive potential in the software industry ex ante can help to apply the theory of disruptive innovation better for forecasting purposes and to provide novel strategic insights for the players involved.     

Affinities between multi-agent systems and service-dominant logic: Interactionist implications for business marketing practice

The contrasting marketing principles of service-dominant (S-D) logic and goods-dominant (G-D) logic are examined in this article from the perspective of current research themes in the information science community. The conclusion is reached that much of the distributed multi-agent literature is complementary to the issues being explored concerning S-D logic, and that some multi-agent research may therefore be pertinent to the business marketing community. This article discusses the modelling approach of interactionism as an underlying principle of both S-D logic and multi-agent systems technology. The two domain technologies are compared, and implications for business marketing practice proposed.     

Organizational learning and market orientation: interface and effects on performance

This paper discusses the relationship between market orientation and organizational learning and, in particular, the former's contribution to the generation of double-loop learning. Although prior contributions on this topic have been controversial, the authors, departing from the principles of RBV, consider market orientation a resource capable of generating higher order organizational learning and, in this way, capable of additionally reinforcing firms' sustainable competitive advantage. The empirical study provides evidence on the existing relationship between a firm's learning and market orientation degree and the organization's economic and non-economic results. Findings indicate that learning orientation stimulates the market-oriented behavior and that it also positively affects the establishment of long-term relationships with strategic clients. Contrary to prior research a significant and positive effect on business performance is only contrasted in the case of market orientation.     

Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

Cultural vs. operational market orientation and objective vs. subjective performance: Perspective of production and operations

The relationship between market orientation and organizational performance has been the focus of many studies for the last few years. The conclusions reported are very diverse and even contradictory. This ambiguity is reinforced to some extent by the high degree of methodological heterogeneity in the definition and measure of market orientation and organizational performance and the empirical formalization of the relationship between both concepts. This study tackles this question by comparing different methodological approaches. Three key aspects are considered: (1) cultural and operational approaches for measuring market orientation; (2) objective and subjective measures of performance; and (3) the source of information in the organization, specifically the perspective of production and operations. The results obtained from a sample of Spanish industrial firms show a stronger positive relationship for operational market orientation and subjective performance. Moreover, the adoption of ‘operational recipes’ of market orientation by the production and operations function seems to improve organizational performance regardless of the existence of any cultural support for market orientation.     

Value creation in the relationship life cycle: A quasi-longitudinal analysis

Among the growing literature on value creation in collaborative buyer-seller relationships, most researchers examine relationship value at a single point in time. In the present research, we explore whether different stages of the relationship life cycle moderate the relative importance of value-creating dimensions. To shed light on the dynamic nature of value in B2B relationships, we present the results of a survey among purchasing managers using a quasi-longitudinal research design. Our findings confirm the moderating role of the relationship life cycle in value creation. More precisely, our results indicate that a key supplier's potential for value creation in customer's operations increases in relative importance as relationships move through the life cycle. In turn, supplier's capabilities to create superior value at the level of the customer's sourcing process display a decreasing role over the life cycle of a business relationship. No significant link was found in the present study between value creation through a supplier's core offering and different stages of a buyer-seller relationship.     

Technology evaluation in Taiwan's technology industries: Strategies, trajectories, and innovations

Technology evaluation, as an organizational process, is the essential ability to comprehend the values of technologies very soon after they emerge. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation process is inevitably influenced by the firm's industrial context, such as its technological trajectory. This study defines technology evaluation strategy in terms of the processes, methods, and participants involved, and uses this definition as a taxonomy to explore different types of technology evaluation strategies. A survey on the technological industries is conducted to explore types of technology evaluation strategies and their relationships with the advantages of different types of innovation under the effects of different technological trajectories. The survey identifies four types of technology evaluation strategies, namely, those of the flexible executive strategist, the emergent executive intuitionist, the deliberate quantitative strategist, and the deliberate consensual strategist, are identified. This study has found that certain types of technology evaluation strategies have better innovation performances than the others. The patterns of technological trajectories are also found to influence a firm's technology evaluation strategy and the advantages of certain types of innovations. The established explanations of the relationships among the technological trajectory, innovation type, and technology evaluation strategies may guide technology businesses to develop a better technology evaluation capability. The theoretical framework developed in this research enriches the strategic management literature with a new taxonomy for technology evaluation strategies.     

A dyadic approach to the impact of differences in organizational culture on relationship performance

The authors extend previous research on relationship management by investigating the potential effect of differences in organizational culture on relationship performance among 124 dyads. Theory suggests that partner similarity may improve the feeling of we-ness thereby contributing to the perceived success of inter-firm cooperation. The findings reveal that differences in organizational culture are larger in less successful inter-firm relationships, but do not influence the perceived relationship success significantly. Our results suggest that relationship managers should not confuse compatibility with similarity; personal chemistry is important for relationship atmosphere but does not solely depend on similarities. Future research in this area may wish to concentrate on a more complete measure of organizational (sub)culture(s), the different levels of analysis (personal, organizational, dyad), relationship life cycles (stage models) and the role of organizational identity.     

Strategic Internet application trends in supply chain management

The Internet is evolving as a powerful force in the new marketplace where the nexus of competition has changed from individual firms to efficient supply chain networks both between firms and within industries. This study explores Internet adoption patterns and operational applications in US supply chain networks. The data reveal that the integration of the Internet into supply chain management applications has increased and has moved away from indiscriminate application of novel Internet technologies towards becoming a focused endeavor with precise expectations and measurable goals. Specifically, the study finds that Internet usage within supply chains is maturing as evidenced by enhanced and increased productivity, reduced costs and increased profit for participating firms.