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981.
Francisco José Mojica Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(9):1559-1565
With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted. 相似文献
982.
Joseph F. Coates Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(9):1428-1437
The growing interest in business, government, and other organizations and users of futures research in the next ten to thirty years implies that the interest is largely to promote better strategic thinking and planning. Popular in the current futures lexicon is ‘strategic foresight’. This article characterizes, as best the author can, the key characteristics of strategic foresight, under whatever name it occurs, by American futurists. The most central characteristic of American futurists and their approach as practiced around the world is eclectic flexibility in methods and techniques. The American approach is illustrated by the author's own decades of work for organizational clients. 相似文献
983.
Barbara van Mierlo Author Vitae Cees Leeuwis Author Vitae Author Vitae Rosalinde Klein Woolthuis Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(2):318-334
In this paper we develop an analytical framework for studying learning processes in the context of efforts to bring about system innovation by building new networks of actors who are willing to work on a change towards sustainable development. We then use it to evaluate two specific intervention programmes carried out by a self-proclaimed ‘system instrument’. The framework integrates elements from the Innovation Systems approach with a social learning perspective. The integrated model proposes essentially that these kinds of systemic instruments can serve to enhance conditions for social learning and that such processes may result in learning effects that contribute to system innovation by combating system imperfections. The empirical findings confirm the assumption that differences in learning can be explained by the existence or absence of conditions for learning. Similarly, the existence or creation of conducive conditions could be linked to the nature and quality of the interventions of the systemic instrument. We conclude that the investigated part of the hypothesised model has not been refuted and seems to have explanatory power. At the same time we propose that further research is needed among others on the relation between learning, challenging system imperfections and system innovation. 相似文献
984.
Arman Avadikyan Author Vitae Patrick Llerena Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(4):649-661
Long term increases of petrol prices and the threat of a global climate change have created in the automotive industry a new competitive environment based on the development of more sustainable technologies. Using the real option reasoning lens we provide a theoretical framework to better account for the technological and market uncertainties and irreversibilities that impact the investment and innovation decisions of automotive firms supporting the development of more sustainable vehicle technologies. We investigate the case of hybrid vehicles in a transitional perspective by insisting on their potential to influence the dynamic shaping of investment decisions of firms in the car industry. We consider the hybridization strategy as intra-project and inter-project compound growth options to manage the flexibilities and irreversibilities of investment decisions during the transition process. We provide four different-sometimes conflicting-strategic rationales structuring the investment efforts of firms in hybrid vehicles and illustrate them with numerous examples from the automotive industry. 相似文献
985.
Timothy J. Foxon Author Vitae Geoffrey P. Hammond Author Vitae Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(8):1203-11
This paper describes the approach to developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK, being pursued in a major new inter-disciplinary research project. The project aims (a) to learn from past transitions to help explore future transitions and what might enable or avoid them; (b) to design and evaluate transition pathways towards alternative socio-technical energy systems and infrastructures for a low carbon future; and (c) to understand and, where appropriate, model the changing roles, influences and opportunities of large and small ‘actors’ in the dynamics of transitions. The paper describes the approach, which builds on the work of Dutch researchers on transitions and transition management using a multi-level framework of niches, socio-technical regime and landscape, as well as on other parts of the innovation systems literature. It also describes its application to several outline transition pathways to a low carbon energy system in the UK. The pathways embrace both the evolution of the physical and institutional infrastructure changes and the roles of both large actors, e.g. multinational energy supply and distribution companies, national governments, major investors, and small actors, e.g. households, innovators and entrepreneurs. 相似文献
986.
Michel Godet Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(9):1457-1463
Although the concept of foresight is now widely used by Anglo-American writers, the Romance-language countries have continued to refer to the concept of la prospective or prospectiva since the early 1960s. Despite cultural differences, the two concepts are very similar. Nevertheless, the author argues that prospective is closer to strategic foresight. The prospective attitude does not wait for change and then react; it aims to master expected change (preactivity) and to induce a desired change (proactivity). Preactivity is what guides all approaches to future studies, forecasting, scenario planning and foresight. Proactivity is more voluntarist, and aims to bring about the desired changes by means of strategic planning. This leads to a hopeful message: We just have to rethink the problems to move forward. The author highlights the enduring relevance of several key thinkers ranging from Saint Augustine and Seneca to Gaston Berger and Igor Ansoff. He emphasizes the importance of a collectivity's thinking together about the future and taking action. Overall the article pleads for rigor yet some common sense explains the utility of participatory foresight with simple tools (morphological analysis, prospective workshops). In conclusion, this article emphasizes two symmetrical errors: ignore the existence of a hammer when in front of a nail or consider every problem a nail because you have a hammer! 相似文献
987.
Susan Whelan Author Vitae Gary Davies Author Vitae Author Vitae Rita Bourke Author Vitae 《Journal of Business Research》2010,63(11):1164-1171
The objectives of branding and marketing in the public sector can differ in nature from those in the private sector, to include an improved responsiveness to public needs, rather than an increase in customer numbers. In addition, the customer orientation (a disposition that will influence brand perception) of public services is often questioned. Drawing from prior work in the private sector on the relationships expected between employee and organization customer orientation (hereafter referred to as CO), corporate brand personality, and both employee and customer satisfaction, the authors propose a number of models. These models are tested using structural equation modeling on data from a study of the employees (n = 302) and customers (n = 200) of a public hospital. Corporate brand personality mediates the positive links between employee customer orientation (hereafter referred to as ECO) and satisfaction; ECO influences brand personality, which in turn influences satisfaction. However, while both the needs and enjoyment dimensions of ECO improve customer satisfaction, the former has an unexpected, negative effect on employees. Organization customer orientation (hereafter referred to as OCO) influences customer, but not employee, satisfaction. The paper discusses the implications for managing and researching corporate branding in the public sector. 相似文献
988.
Prior research has extensively explored the impact of celebrities' transgressions on the brands that they endorse. However, little research exists examining the impact of brand transgressions on consumers' perceptions of the celebrities that endorse these products. This research addresses this oversight and finds that transgressions committed by a brand negatively impact consumers' attitudes toward the endorsing celebrity. Moreover, we find this effect is sequentially mediated by perceptions of responsibility and moral reputation. Finally, we identify two response strategies that a celebrity can employ to mitigate the negative effects of the brand's transgression on the celebrity's reputation. However, the effectiveness of these strategies may be dependent upon perceptions of endorser expertise. 相似文献
989.
Vegetable oil crop production has increased faster than other food or industrial crops in recent years. Palm oil which is widely grown in tropical areas has become the most internationally produced and traded oil with a detrimental effect on the natural environment and the sustainability of producing communities. The general perception of the industry conveys a negative image to consumers. To better understand the extent consumers’ perception of palm oil products would inform stakeholders in the sector 25 one-to-one interviews using the means-end laddering technique (Olson and Reynolds, 2001) were carried out to elicit attributes which led to the establishing of value perceptions of products containing palm oil. Pal production practices have elicited negative Environmental Concern Values regarding the availability of resources for future generations. Environmental consciousness seems to be an important attribute marketers should take into account when both developing and promoting products. However, consumers’ perception of palm oil as a product ingredient was regarded as minimal. Palm oil was perceived as being a more natural product whose naturalness could be exploited regarding ‘physical wellbeing’ values leading to helping consumers achieve a health life and higher self-stem. 相似文献
990.
Ethical consumer behaviour in Germany: The attitude‐behaviour gap in the green apparel industry
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In today's society, the trend of ethical consumerism is undeniable. Yet, even though consumers are ethically concerned, they rarely transform their intentions into a green purchasing behaviour—and this phenomenon is also evident in the sustainable fashion industry. This study aims to understand the prevailing attitude‐behaviour gap and explores the barriers that constrain consumers in purchasing green apparel. A total of 13 in‐depth interviews were conducted and analysed to the principles of grounded theory. The analysis reveals that the following barriers impede consumption of sustainable fashion: price, availability, knowledge, transparency, image, inertia and consumption habits. The impact of each dimension on consumers' purchase decisions might be of interest to apparel manufacturers and retailers who should implement strategies to encourage eco‐conscious apparel acquisition and focus on diminishing these barriers. Accordingly, three major recommendations are made: (a) to concentrate on specific product attributes; (b) to adopt an efficient digital communication strategy; and (c) to make a greater effort on making green apparel attainable. This study contributes to the overall understanding of consumer behaviour in the ethical fashion industry and examines in‐depth the purchasing criteria for sustainable fashion for consumers. 相似文献