Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.     

Are Multiple Directorships Beneficial in East Asia?

We posit that the benefits and costs of multiple directorships are conditional on firm characteristics. We find firm valuation is positively associated with multiple directorships in (i) firms with high advising needs and (ii) firms with high external financing needs. These beneficial effects of multiple directorships are generally stronger in countries with weak shareholder rights and in firms that are widely held. However, when controlling shareholder hold high voting‐rights to cash‐flow rights, multiple directorships reduce firm valuation, especially in countries with weak shareholder rights and in closely held firms. As multiple directorships increases, cash holdings (capital expenditures) contribute less to shareholder value. The negative association between value of cash (capital expenditure) and busy boards is mitigated in firms with (i) high advising needs, (ii) high external financing needs and (iii) less entrenched ownership structures.     

Mining Sector Currency Risk Management Strategies: Responses to Foreign Currency Accounting Regulation

This study investigates the impact of Approved Accounting Standard ASRB 1012, Foreign Currency Translation, on the currency risk management strategies of firms in the Australian mining industry. ASRB 1012 increased the responsiveness of most mining companies' reported earnings to exchange rate movements, and it was predicted that firms would alter their capital structures in response to the increased accounting exposure. The results suggest that mining companies decreased their proportionate levels of long-term foreign debt and increased their share capital and/or reserves to mitigate the effects of the standard on their contracts. This information is useful to standard-setters seeking an awareness of the potential micro and macro-economic effects of their pronouncements.     

Can Singapore maintain its competitive edge in manufacturing productivity vis-à-vis China and Malaysia?

This article investigates whether Singapore can maintain its competitive advantage in manufacturing from a labour productivity perspective vis-avis China and Malaysia, which are generally viewed as Singapore's competitors in manufacturing. We also investigate the extent to which China is closing the labour productivity gap with Singapore and Malaysia in technology-intensive segments of manufacturing. Our analysis reveals that China has the potential to develop a high labour-productivity and low-wage manufacturing sector. In terms of manufacturing labour productivity, China is moving towards convergence with Malaysia. Compared with Singapore, China's manufacturing labour productivity is still far behind, especially in key technology-intensive industries like electronics and chemicals, such that it is unlikely for China to catch up with Singapore within a decade.     

The Breakdown of Idiosyncratic Volatility Into Expected and Unexpected Components and Its Effects on Stock Returns in Brazil

Based on studies of idiosyncratic volatility developed in the recent literature, this study analyzes its relation with expected returns through the breakdown of idiosyncratic volatility in the Brazilian stock market and presents evidence of the importance of expected idiosyncratic volatility for asset pricing. We study the impact of the expected and unexpected components of idiosyncratic volatility on the returns of shares listed on the BOVESPA between 2004 and 2011. The results show a strong positive and significant relation between expected idiosyncratic volatility and returns. This evidence is highlighted when we use unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns. Additional robustness tests, controlling for size and momentum effects, also have positive and significant coefficients, corroborating previous findings.     

巴黎碰碰车

巴黎不喜欢我我也不喜欢巴黎。可能一般女生会不太了解这样一个浪漫的城市，基本上没多少人拥有抵抗力就连我自己也没想过自己如此热爱旅行竟然对巴黎下这样的一个定论。我寻遍以往的旧照发现原来我不曾为这个城市留下任何令我心动的照片，当然更别有巴黎汽车的照片先在此跟读者们道个歉。我搜索桔肠费杀思量，想着想着巴黎也不曾暖给我一个美好印象；     

Valuation of Discrete Dynamic Fund Protection Under Lévy Processes

Abstract

This paper investigates the valuation of discrete dynamic fund protection (DFP) under Levy processes. Specifically, the analytical solution of discrete DFP under Lévy processes is obtained in terms of Fourier transforms. The derivation uses Spitzer’s formula and leads to a recursion on computing the characteristic function of the maximum protection-to-fund ratio using the Fourier inversion. DFP can then be valued efficiently and accurately via the fast Fourier transform. The pricing behavior of the discrete DFP is numerically examined using several Levy processes, such as geometric Brownian motion, jump-diffusion models, and variance gamma process. Numerical experiments confirm that the proposed approach produces highly accurate discrete DFP values within 1 second.     

A Bayesian framework for combining valuation estimates

Discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estimates. Moreover, the valuation estimates typically disagree with market price. Can one form a superior valuation estimate by averaging over the individual estimates, including market price? This article suggests a Bayesian framework for combining two or more estimates into a superior valuation estimate. The framework justifies the common practice of averaging over several estimates to arrive at a final point estimate.     

Why are postwar cycles smoother? Impulses or propagation?

This paper asks whether the remarkable decrease in business-cycle variability after the end of World War II has been the result of a more stable structure (the propagation mechanism) or less volatile shocks (the impulses). Using data from the pre-World War I, interwar, and post-World War II periods, for the US, Australia, Italy, Sweden, and the UK, our evidence suggests that the reduced volatility is mostly the result of calmer shocks, and less the consequence of a more stable structure. In the US, for example, we calculate that milder shocks have been responsible for around 80% of the reduction in output variability between interwar and postwar periods, while a more stable structure is responsible for the remaining 20%.     

Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model: A Panel Unit Root Test Approach

In this study, we provide evidence on the stationarity of real audit fees and the major explanatory variables frequently used in the audit pricing models from a pooled data set, using panel unit root tests developed by Im et al. (1997). The panel unit root test supports the hypothesis of non‐stationarity of audit fees and their major determinants. We demonstrate that variables in the audit pricing model that were previously found to have impact on audit fees may turn out to be useless when more powerful tests like panel tests are applied to these variables. Our evidence implies that failing to employ appropriate procedure to test cointegration and to specify the appropriate model for audit fees and their determinants would generate results that may have exaggerated the effects of some variables on audit fees.