Evolutionary Credibility Theory

Abstract

The conventional approach to evolutionary credibility theory assumes a linear state-space model for the longitudinal claims data so that Kalman filters can be used to estimate the claims’ expected values, which are assumed to form an autoregressive time series. We propose a class of linear mixed models as an alternative to linear state-space models for evolutionary credibility and show that the predictive performance is comparable to that of the Kalman filter when the claims are generated by a linear state-space model. More importantly, this approach can be readily extended to generalized linear mixed models for the longitudinal claims data. We illustrate its applications by addressing the “excess zeros” issue that a substantial fraction of policies does not have claims at various times in the period under consideration.     

Changes in REIT Structure and Stock Performance: Evidence from the Monday Stock Anomaly

It is well documented that REITs in the 1990s experienced significant changes in their structure and attracted greater institutional participation. This article finds that REIT stocks with higher institutional holdings perform better on Monday than REITs with lower institutional holdings during the 1990s, but not in the 1980s. Furthermore, REITs that went public in the 1990s are the ones associated with the shift in the Monday return pattern. Our study supports the claim that the change in REIT structure and the increase in institutional participation in the REIT market in the 1990s make REIT stocks behave more like other equities in the stock market.     

Employment Effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions

We examine whether the recent expansions in Medicaid from the Affordable Care Act reduced “employment lock” among childless adults who were previously ineligible for public coverage. We compare employment in states that chose to expand Medicaid versus those that chose not to expand, before and after implementation. We find that although the expansion increased Medicaid coverage by 3.0 percentage points among childless adults, there was no significant impact on employment.     

Insider trading returns and dividend signals

The literature shows that insider trading activities and dividends contain information content and serve as signals to firm value. If insider return is a proxy for information asymmetry, we should expect a positive relation between dividends and insider returns. Using a sample of unambiguous (good and bad) news concerning earnings and dividend announcements from Hong Kong firms, we show that information asymmetry is stronger for bad news firms with insider sales than good news firms with insider purchases. In addition, we improve the methodology of Khang and King [Khang, K., & King, T. H. D. (2006). Does dividend policy relate to cross-sectional variation in information asymmetry? Evidence from returns to insider trades. Financial Management, 35, 71–94] and provide evidence that dividend is a credible signal for measuring information asymmetry.     

The role of private information in dynamic matching and bargaining: Can it be good for efficiency?

We consider a private information replica of the dynamic matching and bargaining model of Mortensen and Wright (2002). We find that private information typically deters entry. But, the welfare can actually be higher under private information.     

中国工业可持续发展：应对全球气侯变化、能源和粮食安全转型的范例

本刊收到梁建邦国际顾问公司主席、英国48家集团副主席、香港银紫荆勋章获得者梁建邦先生来稿，作者对中国工业化进程中面临的环境问题、在工业和经济发展模式转型方面做出的努力和取得的成果，以及未来在应对环境压力、实现可持续发展方面需重点实施的行动计划进行了有益的分析和评估。本刊撷取作者主要观点翻译并予以发表，希望能给读者带来一定的启示。     

A Review of Personality Research in the Tourism and Hospitality Context

Most commentators agree that human relations are central to tourism and hospitality. Different personalities thus display different reactions to the same task. This article provides an overview of prior studies on personality in the context of tourism and hospitality. Using EBSCOHost's Hospitality & Tourism Index, the largest online database for tourism and hospitality research, we analyzed published articles on the topic. Broadly speaking, prior studies can be grouped into the seven dimensions of disposal, biological, intrapsychic, cognitive, social, and adjustment in personality research, plus brand personality. Interestingly, our results show although the Internet has become one of the major marketing channels for hospitality and tourism, only a small number of published articles are related to consumers' online behavior. We thus propose that this area be further researched in the future.     

An Application of the Capability Maturity Model for Evaluating Attraction Websites in Mainland China

This paper extends the applicability of the Capability Maturity Model to attraction website evaluation. Based on input by 120 respondents from four groups, including tourists, tourism academics, attraction managers, and IT professionals in Mainland China, an attraction website maturity model (AWMM) with six key performance areas and 48 key criteria was developed. To validate the applicability of the model, the AWMM was used to evaluate 357 websites of 4A‐level attractions in Mainland China. Empirical findings revealed that the development of the China's attraction websites was at an infancy stage, while eCommerce in China has been adopted rapidly. Major improvements are required in relation to the interaction and commerce functions of these websites. Implications of the results of such improvements, as well as future research, are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accountants, Ethical Issues and the Corporate Governance Context

This paper aims to identify the types of ethical issues encountered by accountants, the influence of such experience on accountants' ethical perceptions and the effect of situational factors—the field of employment and the accountans position in the organisation—on accountants' perceptions of ethics. Differences were found in perceptions about ethical issues among accountants in different fields of employment. The study also confirms the inverse relationship between hierarchical position and ethical perception among top, middle and junior staff, with higher-ranked accountants perceiving most ethical issues as less important than their subordinates.     

Redistribution through education and other transfer mechanisms

Educational subsidies are frequently justified as a method of altering the income distribution. It is thus natural to compare education to other tax-transfer schemes designed to achieve distributional objectives. While equity-efficiency trade-offs are frequently discussed, they are rarely explicitly treated. This paper creates a general equilibrium model of school attendance, labor supply, wage determination, and aggregate production, which is used to compare alternative redistribution devices in terms of both deadweight loss and distributional outcomes. A wage subsidy generally dominates tuition subsidies across a wide range of fundamental parameters for the economy. Both are generally superior to a negative income tax. With externalities in production, however, there is an unambiguous role for governmental subsidy of education, because it both raises GDP and creates a more equal income distribution.