Zinssatz,preisniveau und »optimale inflationsrate« in einer wachsenden wirtschaft

Summary Interest Rates, Price Level and Optimum Inflation Rate in a Growing Economy. — Following Wicksell, this paper is concerned with the dependence, in a growing economy, of the inflation rate on the difference between capital interest and money rates. A neoclassical growth model is developed in which deviations of capital interest from the central bank money rate lead to deviations of investment demand from savings, which, in turn, induce changes in the price level. On the other hand, capital interest is itself determined, among other things, by investments. It appears that the deductions Wicksell made for a stationary economy can be applied to a balanced growth. By means of the so-called golden rule of accumulation it is possible to calculate any money rate that will maximize the long-term development of consumption, while a simultaneous secular inflation cannot be excluded.

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Résumé Taux d’intérêts, niveau des prix et taux d’inflation optimal dans une économie croissante. — En suivant Wicksell, cet article étudie la dépendance, dans une économie croissante, du taux d’inflation de la différence entre l’intérêt du capital et le taux de l’argent. Un modèle néoclassique d’accroissement est développé, oú les déviations de l’intérêt du capital du taux d’argent de banque centrale entrainent une déviation de la demande d’investissement des épargnes, déviation qui, à son tour, cause des changements dans le niveau des prix. D’autre part, l’intérêt même du capital est déterminé, entre autres, par l’investissement. Il est évident que les déductions de Wicksell, faites pour une économie stationnaire, s’appliquent également à un accroissement équilibré. Au moyen de la dite ?golden rule of accumulation? il est possible de calculer tout taux d’argent qui saura maximiser le développement à long terme de la consommation, mais en même temps il sera impossible d’exclure une inflation séculaire.

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Resumen Tipo de interés, nivel de precios y ?tasa optima de inflation? en una economfa creciente. — En el présente articulo se analiza, en complemento de la teoria de Wicksell, cómo dépende la tasa de inflation de la diferencia entre la rentabilidad del capital y el interés monetario en una economfa creciente. El au tor desarrolla una modelo de crecimiento neoclásico, en el cual diferencias entre la rentabilidad del capital y la tasa de interés, fijada por el Banco Central, inducen diferencias entre la demanda de inversion y el ahorro disponible para la inversion, lo cual a su vez provoca variaciones del nivel de precios. Por otro lado, la rentabilidad del capital esta determinada, entre otras cosas, por el volumen de inversion. El autor demuestra que las formulaciones de Wicksell respecto a una economia estacionaria son perfectamente transferibles a una economia con crecimiento equilibrado. Mediante la aplicación de la ?régla de oro de acumulación? se puede determinar la tasa de interés, que permite el máximo consumo a largo plazo, no pudiéndose descartar la posibilidad de una inflation secular.

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Riassunto Tasso d’intéressé, livello dei prezzi e ?ottimale rata d’inflazione? in un’economia in crescenza. — L’articolo discute, rapportandosi a Wicksell, la dipen-Zinssatz, Preisniveau und ?optimale Inflationsrate? in einer wachsenden Wirtschaft denza délia rata d’inflazione dalla differenza tra remunerazione del capitale e tasso d’intéressé del denaro in un’economia in crescenza. è sviluppato un modello di crescita neoclassico, in cui deviazioni della remunerazione del capitale dal tasso d’intéressé del denaro determinato dalle banche d’emissione conducono a deviazioni della domanda di capitale dal risparmio che a loro volta inducono a modificazioni del livello dei prezzi. D’altra parte la stessa remunerazione di capitale tra l’altro è determinata dagli investimenti. Risulta che le asserzioni derivate da Wickseil per un’economia stazionaria si lasciano trasferire ad un equilibrio in crescenza. Applicando il cosiddetto ?golden rule of accumulation? si puó determinare quell’interesse di denaro che massitnizza il ?sentiero? di consumo a lungo termine, laddove non puó essere esclusa una simultanea secolare inflazione.

     

I. Allgemeine Wirstchaftslehre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

A European perspective on public debt

Public debt in Europe has risen continuously over the last two decades. How is the transition to European Economic and Monetary Union, with the increasing economic interdependence between individual member states which it involves, likely to affect this situation? Which policy issues are of particular relevance in this setting?     

Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value‐at‐Risk Framework

Multinational companies face increasing risks arising from external risk factors, e.g. exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, which they have learned to hedge using derivatives. However, despite increasing disclosure requirements, a firm's net risk profile may not be transparent to shareholders. We develop the ‘Component Value‐at‐Risk (VaR)’ framework for companies to identify the multi‐dimensional downside risk profile as perceived by shareholders. This framework allows for decomposing downside risk into components that are attributable to each of the underlying risk factors. The firm can compare this perceived VaR, including its composition and dynamics, to an internal VaR based on net exposures as it is known to the company. Any differences may lead to surprises at times of earnings announcements and thus constitute a litigation threat to the firm. It may reduce this information asymmetry through targeted communication efforts.     

Hans Mathias Kepplinger 60 Jahre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

SMOOTH QUANTILE‐BASED MODELING OF BRAND SALES,PRICE AND PROMOTIONAL EFFECTS FROM RETAIL SCANNER PANELS

Semiparametric quantile regression is employed to flexibly estimate sales response for frequently purchased consumer goods. Using retail store‐level data, we compare the performance of models with and without monotonic smoothing for fit and prediction accuracy. We find that (a) flexible models with monotonicity constraints imposed on price effects dominate both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample comparisons while being robust even at the boundaries of the price distribution when data is sparse; (b) quantile‐based confidence intervals are much more accurate compared to least‐squares‐based intervals; (c) specifications reflecting that managers may not have exact knowledge about future competitive pricing perform extremely well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Question-answering-technique to support freshman and senior engineers in processes of engineering design

In two experimental studies, the influence of question-based reflection on the quality of design solutions was investigated. Students and experts with different know-how and professional experience had to design an artefact that should meet a list of requirements. Subsequently, they were asked to answer a system of interrogative questions stimulating reflection on the solutions with the opportunity to modify or revise them. These questions cause the participants to explain, justify and evaluate their finished design and, hence, aiming at the semantic relations in systems. In all groups significant improvements of the solutions were obtained whereby the improvements of engineers with a lower work-experience (job beginners) were significantly higher as those with higher experience. The integration of a specific type of questioning behaviour in the design education is discussed.     

A stochastic cash model with deterministic elements

In this paper we present a simple model which gives a solution to a (one period) stochastic cash problem with a fixed cash outlay at the end of the period. We focus on the role of options as insurance contracts, as to value a constraint on the minimum cash level. It is argued that a cash level adjustment is optimal where the sum of the marginal cost of liquidity and the marginal insurance premium (options value) is zero.We like to thank Edwin O. Fischer, Jaap Spronk and three anonymous referees for helpfull comments. Excellent computational assistance by Henk Hofmans is hereby acknowledged. Of course, the usual disclaimers apply.