Mediennutzung und Umweltbewusstsein: Dependenz- und Priming-Effekte

In a comparative perspective, the article is concerned with the contribution of media use to EU citizens’ levels of environmental knowledge and awareness. Mass media are the most important source for environmental information, and media use contributes considerably to the amount of information people hold on environmental issues. In addition, media use bears upon the perception of the burden to the environment, the worry about the state of the environment in one’s own country, and the worries about the environment in general. The explanatory power of media use is largest for those judgments that relate to the parts of the environment that cannot be directly experienced. Besides this result, which is in accordance to the dependency theory of media effects, the analysis corroborates a priming effect: The media affect judgments on the environmental burden one has to suffer and on the state of the environment even if these judgments can be based on one’s own perception. EU citizens, however, complain much less about the burden on their own environment than they worry about the state of the environment in general. This gap also, as is demonstrated, can be traced back, at least in part, to an influence of the media. Results for single EU countries partly differ from these general results, most likely due to differences in how much environmental issues are politicized in the media and how intensely they are covered.     

Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach

Nowadays, brand choice models are standard tools in quantitative marketing. In most applications, parameters representing brand intercepts and covariate effects are assumed to be constant over time. However, marketing theories, as well as the experience of marketing practitioners, suggest the existence of trends or short-term variations in particular parameters. Hence, having constant parameters over time is a highly restrictive assumption, which is not necessarily justified in a marketing context and may lead to biased inferences and misleading managerial insights.In this paper, we develop flexible, heterogeneous multinomial logit models based on penalized splines to estimate time-varying parameters. The estimation procedure is fully data-driven, determining the flexible function estimates and the corresponding degree of smoothness in a unified approach. The model flexibly accounts for parameter dynamics without any prior knowledge needed by the analyst or decision maker. Thus, we position our approach as an exploratory tool that can uncover interesting and managerially relevant parameter paths from the data without imposing assumptions on their shape and smoothness.Our approach further allows for heterogeneity in all parameters by additively decomposing parameter variation into time variation (at the population level) and cross-sectional heterogeneity (at the individual household level). It comprises models without time-varying parameters or heterogeneity, as well as random walk parameter evolutions used in recent state space models, as special cases. The results of our extensive model comparison suggest that models considering parameter dynamics and household heterogeneity outperform less complex models regarding fit and predictive validity. Although models with random walk dynamics for brand intercepts and covariate effects perform well, the proposed semiparametric approach still provides a higher predictive validity for two of the three data sets analyzed.For joint estimation of all regression coefficients and hyperparameters, we employ the publicly available software BayesX, making the proposed approach directly applicable.     

DEALER PRICING OF CONSUMER CREDIT*

Price discrimination incentives may induce dealers to bear the financial cost of their customers' credit purchases. We focus on how financial market imperfections make it possible to segment the customer population. When borrowing and lending rates differ from each other and from the rate of interest on a durable good purchase, the structure of those rates influences customers' choices to purchase on credit or cash terms, and the scope for dealers' price discrimination. Empirical analysis of a set of installment‐credit, personal‐loan, and regional interest rate data offers considerable support to the assumptions and implications of our theoretical framework.     

Deutschlands Sozialversicherung in der Kritik

Die umlagefinanzierte Sozialversicherung steht seit l?ngerem im Brennpunkt der Kritik von Wissenschaftlern, Politikern und den Medien. Als Alternative wird h?ufig eine kapitalfundierte Privatversicherung genannt. Wie unterscheiden sich diese beiden Versicherungen? Inwieweit existieren sie bereits heute nebeneinander? Ist der Weg in eine kapitalfundierte Rentenversicherung unumkehrbar?     

Nonparametric estimation of a discontinuity in regression

We propose and study a new method to nonparametrically estimate a discontinuity of a regression function. The optimal rate of convergence n ⁻¹ is obtained under minimal assumptions. No smoothing is required.