Alexander Mahr — Porträt eines Ökonomen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Stochastic mortality models: an infinite-dimensional approach

Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite-dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is the introduction of a family of processes called forward mortality improvements which provide a flexible tool for a simple construction of stochastic forward mortality models. In practice, the notion of mortality improvements is a convenient device for the quantification of changes in mortality rates over time, and enables, for example, the detection of cohort effects. We show that the forward mortality rates satisfy Heath–Jarrow–Morton-type consistency conditions which translate to conditions on the forward mortality improvements. While the consistency conditions for the forward mortality rates are analogous to the classical conditions in the context of bond markets, the conditions for the forward mortality improvements possess a different structure. Forward mortality models include a cohort parameter besides the time horizon, and these two dimensions are coupled in the dynamics of consistent models of forward mortality improvements. In order to obtain a unified framework, we transform the systems of Itô processes which describe the forward mortality rates and improvements. In contrast to term structure models, the corresponding stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) describe the random dynamics of two-dimensional surfaces rather than curves.     

The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms

In this article, we analyse stylized facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55 000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch to a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.     

Service Failure and Recovery in a Strategic Airline Alliance Context: Interplay of Locus of Service Failure and Social Identity

ABSTRACT

There has been a dramatic increase in the past decade in the number of strategic alliances and business networks. Yet, despite these trends in the business environment, the individual firm-customer dyad has remained the contextual focus of most services marketing research (Gittell, 2002 Gittell, J. H. 2002. Relationships between service providers and their impact on customers. Journal of Service Research, 4(4): 299–311. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Using a scenario study, this research investigates the effects of service failures in a strategic airline alliance setting, with a particular focus on locus of service failure and strength of social identification, on three alliance entities—a consumer's home carrier, the alliance partner airline, and the alliance. Study findings suggest that consumers' evaluations are more stable (less extreme) when the home carrier causes the service failure. In contrast, when a lesser known entity (partner airline) causes the service failure, consumers are more willing to rate that entity harshly. Furthermore, compared to weak identifiers, strong identifiers were not only more positive in their evaluation of the home carrier but also in their evaluation of the alliance, pointing to a halo effect, whereby positive evaluations of the home carrier are transferred to the alliance. Implications of study results are discussed and directions for future research provided.     

Same but Different: Chinese-American and Mainland Chinese Consumers’ Perceptions of and Behavior in a Service Failure Situation

Going beyond the traditional East/West consumer differentiation in studying service failure, this article examined the impact of acculturation, together with ethnicity of service staff and origin of a hotel brand on consumers’ perceptions and behavioral responses. The research drew on four focus groups conducted in Beijing with 34 participants, followed by an experiment for which data were collected from 451 Chinese-Americans and 464 Mainland Chinese. Results showed significant differences in perceptions and behavioral responses following a service failure between Chinese-Americans and Mainland Chinese, and among Chinese-Americans with different acculturation strategies. Implications of study findings and directions for future research are discussed.     

Motivation and involvement in adventure tourism activities: a Chinese tourists' perspective

ABSTRACT

This research aims to explore Chinese tourists' motivations and involvement in adventure tourism activities, as well as if and how personality and location affect their motivation and involvement. Using a survey that collected 252 responses, this research suggests that stimulus-avoidance and intelligence seeking are the two most important motivational forces. Results indicate that respondents would prefer overseas locations for these activities due to perceptions of greater safety and security, better service, and higher-quality facilities. Respondents who rated themselves as “open” or “closed” in personality differ regarding motivations and involvement. Practical implications are discussed, and recommendations for future research are provided.     

Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis

The present paper sheds further light on a well-known (alleged) violation of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT): the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We show that the EHT implies (i) that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is hence (ii) cointegrated with the spread. In a stochastic discount factor framework, we model the premium as being driven by the integrated variance of excess returns. Introducing the concept of mean-variance cointegration, we actually find cointegration relations between the conditional first and second moment of US bond data.