Stochastic mortality models: an infinite-dimensional approach

Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite-dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is the introduction of a family of processes called forward mortality improvements which provide a flexible tool for a simple construction of stochastic forward mortality models. In practice, the notion of mortality improvements is a convenient device for the quantification of changes in mortality rates over time, and enables, for example, the detection of cohort effects. We show that the forward mortality rates satisfy Heath–Jarrow–Morton-type consistency conditions which translate to conditions on the forward mortality improvements. While the consistency conditions for the forward mortality rates are analogous to the classical conditions in the context of bond markets, the conditions for the forward mortality improvements possess a different structure. Forward mortality models include a cohort parameter besides the time horizon, and these two dimensions are coupled in the dynamics of consistent models of forward mortality improvements. In order to obtain a unified framework, we transform the systems of Itô processes which describe the forward mortality rates and improvements. In contrast to term structure models, the corresponding stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) describe the random dynamics of two-dimensional surfaces rather than curves.     

A continuum of commitment

We examine a generic three-stage game for two players with alternating moves, where the first player can choose the level of adjustment cost to be paid in the last period to modify the action she announced in the first period. In the resulting continuum of commitment options, convexifying the choice between first-mover and second-mover advantage in pure strategies, we characterize when an intermediate adjustment-cost level is chosen in equilibrium. We show that the wastefulness of the adjustment cost may be in the players’ best interest, improving both of their individual net payoffs over making any fraction of the adjustment cost a side-payment from the first to the second player.     

Idiosyncratic risk and the cost of capital: the case of electricity networks

We analyze the treatment and impact of idiosyncratic or firm-specific risk in regulation. Regulatory authorities regularly ignore firm-specific characteristics, such as size or asset ages, implying different risk exposure in incentive regulation. In contrast, it is common to apply only a single benchmark, the weighted average cost of capital, uniformly to all firms. This will lead to implicit discrimination. We combine models of firm-specific risk, liquidity management and regulatory rate setting to investigate impacts on capital costs. We focus on the example of the impact of component failures for electricity network operators. In a simulation model for Germany, we find that capital costs increase by \(\sim \) 0.2 to 3.0 % points depending on the size of the firm (in the range of 3–40 % of total cost of capital). Regulation of monopolistic bottlenecks should take these risks into account to avoid implicit discrimination.     

Implementing an Organizational Ethics Program in an Academic Environment: The Challenges and Opportunities for the Duquesne University Schools of Business

This paper acknowledges the paucity of attention regarding the development of ethics programs within an academic environment and describes in a case study how the Duquesne University schools of business attempted to introduce, integrate and promote its own ethics program. The paper traces the business school’s attention to mission statements, curriculum development, ethics policy, program oversight and outcome assessment. Lessons learned are offered as suggestions for others seeking to develop and implement an ethics program in their school.     

Influences Upon Organizational Ethical Subclimates: A Replication Study of a Single Firm at Two Points in Time

This research replicates Weber's 1995 study of a large financial services firm that found that ethical subclimates exist within multi-departmental organizations, are influenced by the function of the department and the stakeholders served, and are relatively stable over time. Relying upon theoretical models developed by Thompson (1967) and Victor and Cullen (1998), hypotheses are developed that predict the ethical subclimate decision-making dimensions and type for diverse departments within a large steel manufacturing firm and that these ethical subclimate types will be stable across the two periods of time when the data were collected. Employees were surveyed in 1995 and again in 1999 using Victor and Cullen's Ethical Climate Questionnaire. Response rates of 88 and 94 percent were achieved. Contrary to Weber's findings, our results imply that, in both samples, ethical subclimates may be determined by the strength of an organization's overall ethical climate, rather than the department's function. However, we did find support for Weber's earlier contention that these subclimates are relatively stable. Our results also suggest that differences may exist across industries, that is when comparing a large steel manufacturer, as we did in our study, with a large financial services organization, as Weber did in his 1995 study.     

Auctions versus bookbuilding: The effects of IPO regulation in Japan

We analyze a regulatory change in the Japanese IPO market that created an abrupt shift from hybrid price-discriminatory auctions to bookbuilding. We find that bookbuilding leads to higher underpricing than hybrid price-discriminatory auctions. Furthermore, we find evidence that price accuracy tends to be higher for auctions than for bookbuilding. The results hold under a variety of OLS specifications and with regression discontinuity designs exploiting the abrupt change of the regulation.     

Capital requirements and claims recovery: A new perspective on solvency regulation

Protection of creditors is a key objective of financial regulation. Where the protection needs are high, that is, in banking and insurance, regulatory solvency requirements are an instrument to prevent that creditors incur losses on their claims. The current regulatory requirements based on value at risk (V@R) and average value at risk (AV@R) limit the probability of default of financial institutions, but they fail to control the size of recovery on creditors' claims in the case of default. We resolve this failure by developing a novel risk measure, recovery V@R. Our conceptual approach is flexible and allows the construction of general recovery risk measures for various risk management purposes. We provide detailed case studies and applications. We show that recovery risk measures can be used for performance-based management of business divisions of firms and discuss how to calibrate recovery risk measures to historical regulatory standards. Finally, we analyze how recovery risk measures react to the joint distributions of assets and liabilities on firms' balance sheets and compare the corresponding capital requirements with the current regulatory benchmarks based on V@R and AV@R.     

Forward-Looking Belief Elicitation Enhances Intergenerational Beneficence

Environmental and Resource Economics - One of the challenges in managing the Earth’s common pool resources, such as a livable climate or the supply of safe drinking water, is to motivate...