论个人人力资本投资决策

个人投资是人力资本投资的重要主体,是形成大规模投资的关键主体。通过人力资本投资的成本与收益方法分析了个人人力资本投资的决策依据,对激励机制进行了讨论,总结了影响个人人力资本投资的主客观因素,最后,提出激励个人人力资本投资的对策建议。     

我国大豆出口贸易的现状与对策

近年来,我国大豆出口面临越来越激烈的国际竞争.我国大豆对外贸易存在生产成本高、政策保护不足、单产水平低和销售困难等问题,提升我国大豆出口贸易竞争力必须关注市场区位、质量问题.     

对中国新型低碳技术扩散的实证研究与分析

研究了低碳技术中的一种新型技术——二氧化碳捕获与封存(Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage,CCS)技术在中国最近8年以来的扩散情况,选用2000—2008年我国CCS相关技术的研发存量和国外8个技术先进国家通过外国直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)扩散的研发存量数据,对我国CCS技术进步的全要素生产率进行回归分析,探讨了CCS技术在中国扩散的情况及带来的影响。结果表明,我国的CCS技术取得了巨大的进步,这些进步主要来源于两方面:国外FDI的促进作用和国内研发创新的作用,并且国内研发创新的作用略大于国外FDI的作用。最后根据分析结果,提出了在我国通过技术扩散和创新发展CCS技术的政策建议。     

The effect of heterogeneous beliefs on mergers and acquisitions

This article investigates the effect of heterogeneous beliefs on firms’ mergers and acquisitions (M&A) decisions. Using data of China’s financial market, which is featured with great heterogeneity of belief, we find that heterogeneous beliefs are positively associated with the occurrence of M&A transactions, and firms with greater heterogeneous beliefs are more likely to pay the transactions with stock. Moreover, we show that government intervention, measured by state ownership, weakens the effect of heterogeneous beliefs on firms’ M&A decisions.     

Cash transfer program and child underweight—Empirical evidence from a causal mediation analysis

Despite the existence of a voluminous literature on cash transfer programs, little is known about their impacts on the underweight of children. To fill the knowledge gap, this study uses a unique individual panel data set to analyze how participation in the Children Sponsorship Program (CSP) improves underweight status among needy children and adolescents in Taiwan. This study examines not only the program effect on children's underweight, but also underscores the potential pathways behind the program effect by employing a causal mediation analysis. Our analysis finds that exiting the CSP has a negative impact on the improvement of underweight status. Moreover, eating breakfast every day and receiving pocket money from parents can be two significant mediators that link the effect of exiting the CSP and the change in underweight status among children and adolescents.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of utidelone plus capecitabine for metastatic breast cancer in China

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of utidelone plus capecitabine therapy compared to capecitabine alone in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) resistant to anthracyclines and taxanes treatment in the Chinese context and provide a reference for the marketing of utidelone in China.

Methods: A Markov model was developed based on the NCT02253459 clinical trial to simulate the clinical course of patients with metastatic breast cancer who had received taxanes and anthracycline therapy. The quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) were then analyzed to evaluate the benefits. Two-parametric Weibull distribution was conducted to fit PFS and OS curves by using R. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the stability of the model designed.

Results: The addition of utidelone increased the cost and QALYs by $13,370.25 and 0.1961, respectively, resulting in an increased ICER of $68,180.78 per QALY. The most sensitive influential parameter on ICER was the price of utidelone. At the threshold of willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $24,380 (3 per capita GDP of China), the cost of utidelone per 30?mg of less than $18.5, $33.7, and greater than $48.8 resulted in a 100%, 50%, and 0% possibility of cost-effectiveness, respectively. The addition of utidelone was not cost-effective when it was $115.4 per 30?mg—the price of its analog paclitaxel. In consideration of varied economics levels across China, cost-effectiveness could be achieved with the price of utidelone ranging from $5.2 to $35.9.

Limitations: The survival curves extended beyond the follow-up time horizon, of which data were generated not from the real analyses but from our established two-parameter Weibull survival model.

Conclusion: It is recommended that the price of utidelone would be less than $18.5 per 30?mg in order to obtain cost-effectiveness for metastatic breast cancer patients resistant to anthracyclines and taxanes treatment in China.     

收获信任与温暖的新潮旅游群体——对沙发客的初步研究

源于欧美的沙发冲浪是一种新颖时尚的互助旅游方式。相比于传统的旅游模式,基于网络信任的沙发冲浪具有情感投入、体验充分、成本低廉等特点。借助ROST WordParser词频分析软件,通过对相关沙发客网站的文本内容进行分析,总结出沙发客旅游行为的50个高频词汇,并归纳为动机、感知、活动、交通方式、沙发城市、游玩地点等六大类目。研究发现,＂朋友＂和＂温暖＂在文本词汇中出现频率最高,结交朋友、扩展人脉是沙发客的主要旅游动机之一,受到热情接待、体会家庭温暖是沙发客的共同感知;＂联系＂、＂聊天＂、＂游览＂构成沙发客的基本活动;＂火车＂、＂搭车＂与＂公交＂组成交通方式的关键词汇;国际大都市＂上海＂、＂北京＂及风景如画的＂厦门＂、＂杭州＂成为热门目的地;＂景点＂、＂大学＂与＂公园＂是沙发客关注的游玩地点。     

旅游商业化影响下的古镇居住空间变迁研究——以周庄为例

古镇类旅游地的居住空间在旅游商业化的影响下发生变迁,居住空间的相关研究是社会空间研究的重要组成部分,对古镇居住空间变迁的研究是理解旅游驱动旅游地社会空间变迁作用机制的重要切入点.研究以周庄古镇历史镇区为案例地,通过质性研究的方法对周庄居住空间变迁进行调查,并展开分析,发现周庄历史镇区的居住空间形成了使用者多元化、空间功能多样化、空间分布破碎化的变迁特征,认为产生变迁的根源是旅游发展后新主体大量涌入,其基于各自的立场而对旅游商业化有着不同的理解与评价标准,而这种源于利益考量的理解与评价的差异与变化产生了对古镆旅游商业开发的不同行为,本地社会关系在这种频繁的实践与互动过程中不断复杂化,出现新的空间,居住空间发生变迁.游客是居住空间变迁的主要依据,其好恶的变化引导了市场变化,旅游市场供给方积极响应变化,满足游客的需求;政府是变迁的主导力量;开发商通过资本优势影响政府,强化了政府在变迁中的作用;本地世居居民是旅游发展前居住空间的建构者,旅游发展后发生分化;外来旅游从业者涌入,置换本地居民,传统社区共同体瓦解,推动了变迁.     

邮政发展银行速递业务探讨

文章将邮政已开发的银行速递业务归纳为9类,并从业务品种定义、案例介绍、市场容量等方面对这9类业务进行了市场分析,总结了开展此类业务的经验与做法。     

气候变化对粮食产量影响的研究方法综述

[目的]受气候变化的影响,全球粮食安全面临严峻挑战,及时准确地评估气候变化对粮食产量的影响是应对挑战、制定农业适应性对策的关键。相关研究已产生了不少方法,通过综述对方法进行分类,明晰各种方法的优缺点和适用性,以期扬长避短,促进研究方法的综合、发展与完善。[方法]利用文献法、归纳法和比较法,从方法的原理和应用、存在的问题、发展的趋势3个方面进行探讨。[结果]产量分解法可用于分析粮食产量及其构成要素与不同生育期气候变化的关系,实验比较法一般用于粮食产量对单个气候因子或若干气候因子变化的敏感性分析,生产函数法适用于在农业生产系统中分析气候变化对粮食产量影响的边际效应,气候生产潜力模型法侧重于农业生产环境发展评估,作物生长模型法便于结合气候情景预测未来气候变化对粮食产量的影响。在不同研究方向上得以运用的同时,各方法也暴露了一些问题:产量分解法的技术产量难以拟合,实验比较法的数据获取难、模型稳定性较差,生产函数法容易遗漏重要变量、函数构造困难,气候生产潜力模型法的结论难以验证,作物生长模型法参数标定难、模型应用存在尺度错位。[结论]研究方法将逐渐形成一套综合的气候—水文—作物—经济模型法,多源数据融合和多目标模式已经成为方法发展的驱动力。