China’s Labor Market on Crossroad

I.IntroductionSincethelate1990s,China’slabor market has comeundergreat pressure,asreflected by anincreasing unemployment rate,and adeclining labor force participation rate.The causesofthe severe unemployment are threefold.First,due to the macro-economic downturn andrapid industrial structural change in the late1990s,state-owned enterprises(SOEs),whichlost their comparative advantage and competitiveness,have been unable to fully utilizetheir production capacity,and have become loss-makers.Se…     

DEFAULT RISK AND DIVERSIFICATION: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS

Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity's diffusion state variables as the only default risk premium. We show that this interpretation implies a restriction on the form of possible default risk premia, which can be justified through exact and approximate notions of "diversifiable default risk." The equivalence between the empirical and martingale default intensities that follows from diversifiable default risk greatly facilitates the pricing and management of credit risk. We emphasize that this is not an equivalence in distribution, and illustrate its importance using credit spread dynamics estimated in Duffee (1999) . We also argue that the assumption of diversifiability is implicitly used in certain existing models of mortgage-backed securities.     

Local and National Impacts from Landing North Sea Gas in Western Norway

A bstract . A simple framework is presented for the analysis of the local employment, income, sales , and local government impacts of landing North Sea gas at either of two Norwegian kommunes (municipalities). These impacts indicate the different forms of economic change arising from a major economic development event. The average annual net change in these economic measures is estimated for the operational phase of a gas terminal. The analysis indicated substantial differences in local and regional net gains. Both sites yielded positive neteconomic gains, which means noneconomic and national considerations become key decision determinates. These national issues provide the setting to judge the local/regional net gains. The unresolved questions include the national benefits and costs of the landing decision given the small scale of the Norwegian economy, potential future gas finds, and a fully employed economy.     

Developing a tutoring module for presentation of computerized patient management problems

The simulation problem is one of the most commonly used formats in computer-assisted instruction (CAI). In medical education, a patient simulation problem is known as a patient management problem (PMP). A number of computerized PMP systems are currently available. However, to date, there is no record of PMP systems having been developed using artificial intelligence. This is noteworthy since artificial intelligence techniques could help in the generation of more effective and intelligent instructional systems.

This paper analyzes and evaluates existing instructional simulation software in clinical medicine in terms of effective educational design attributes. Components of effective PMP systems thus identified are incorporated into a computerized instructional system which uses artificial intelligence techniques for teaching problem-solving and diagnostic skills to undergraduate medical students.     

HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS[1]

Human resource management (HRM) is a term which is now widely used but very loosely defined. In this paper it is argued that if the concept is to have any social scientific value, it should be defined in such a way as to differentiate it from traditional personnel management and to allow the development of testable hypotheses about its impact. Based on theoretical work in the field of organizational behaviour it is proposed that HRM comprises a set of policies designed to maximize organizational integration, employee commitment, flexibility and quality of work. Within this model, collective industrial relations have, at best, only a minor role. Despite the apparent attractions of HRM to managements, there is very little evidence of any quality about its impact. Furthermore very few UK organizations appear to practise a distinctive form of HRM, although many are moving slowly in that direction through, for example, policies of employee involvement.     

Cost and technical change: Effects from bank deregulation

Banks were substantially deregulated during the 1980s. This altered the cost-minimizing mix between deposit interest payments and operating expenses (capital and labor for branch convenience and free deposit services). Measured bank output was relatively unaffected by these changes. The proportion of deposits receiving higher interest rates increased more rapidly than factor quantities were reduced, so unit deposit costs rose. Consumers benefited, but the measured net effects for banks were negative, averaging –0.8% to –1.4% a year in net technical change from 1977 to 1988. These influences were measured three different ways and for both equilibrium and disequilibrium factor input specifications. All three approaches—a standard time trend, a time-specific index, and shifts in cross-sectional cost functions—gave consistent results. The results were robust whether measured at the banking firm or branch office level or on the cost frontier.     

THEORIES OF CHOICE UNDER IGNORANCE AND UNCERTAINTY

Abstract. In this paper, Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty, and its significance for economic analysis are examined. The paper consists of a survey of some recent developments on the theory of choice under uncertainty and some applications of these theories to problems for which Bayesian Decision Theory has not proved entirely satisfactory. Two problems are examined in detail. The first is that of finance and insurance and the second is that of risktaking behaviour with special emphasis on lotteries.     

浅谈企业信用风险管理

社会主义经济是信用经济,没有信用,就没有秩序,市场经济就不能健康的发展。加强企业信用管理的风险控制是现代企业的一项重要任务。进入WTO标志着中国经济更加开放,国际贸易更加纷繁复杂,在机遇透人的同时,企业也潜伏着越来越大的风险,尤其是企业信用风险。因此强化企业的信用风险管理,建立与完善企业内部信用风险管理体制,仍然是企业面临的一项重要课题,笔者从多方面阐述了企业信用风险形成的原因以及如何建立风险管理机制等问题。