Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

以管理推动新疆货币市场发展的实践——新疆货币市场管理情况和现场检查典型案例

近年来,新疆货币市场在不断探索和积极实践中稳步发展,人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行认真履行辖区同业拆借市场业务监管职能,不断完善市场制度,严格业务管理,在货币市场现场检查方面积极探索,有效促进了辖区货币市场各项工作的顺利开展,取得了一定成效。     

Current Situation of China''''s Petroleum Supply & Demand and Change of Circulation System

China's crude supply consists of the imported crude and crude produced by CNPC and CNOOC. In 1996, national crude production reached 157.29 million tons including 141.41 million tons produced by CNPC. Offshore crude production in 1996 soared to 15. 01 million tons, up 78% from 1995. In 1997, China will produce, import     

Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

This paper solves numerically the intertemporalconsumption and portfolio choiceproblem of an infinitely-lived investor whofaces a time-varying equity premium.The solutions we obtain are very similarto the approximate analytical solutionsof Campbell and Viceira (1999), except atthe upper extreme of the state spacewhere both the numerical consumption andportfolio rules flatten out.We also consider a constrained version ofthe problem in which the investor facesborrowing and short-sales restrictions.These constraints bind when the equitypremium moves away from its mean in eitherdirection, and are particularly severe forrisk-tolerant investors. The constraints havesubstantial effects on optimalconsumption, but much more modest effects onoptimal portfolio choice in theregion of the state space where they are notbinding.     

2009-2010年债券市场运行分析与展望

2009年,在适度宽松的货币政策和积极财政政策引导下,我国债券市场得以克服国际金融危机负面影响,继续保持稳定运行态势。各类证券发行量稳步增长,二级市场交易量温和放大,指数出现回调,债市与股市互动明显。展望2010年,在通胀预期和货币政策从紧预期影响下,市场利率有望上行,指数震荡幅度加大,商业性证券发行量继续增加,政府债券发行会有所控制。     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

Estimating liquidity premia in the Spanish government securities market

This paper investigates the presence of liquidity premia in the relative pricing of assets traded on the Spanish government securities market. First, a classification of bonds into four different categories based on their degree of liquidity is proposed. Second, liquidity premia are estimated introducing liquidity parameters in the estimation of the zero-coupon yield curve. Results suggest the existence of a liquidity premium for post-benchmark bonds (both strippable and non-strippable). The size of this premium is relatively small. In the case of pre-benchmark bonds, the lack of liquidity does not seem to be priced. It is also shown that these pricing discrepancies are robust to the impact of taxes on bonds.     

The transition from products to solutions: External business model fit and dynamics

This article provides empirical evidence and contributes to theory building concerning business model fit and dynamics in the area of solutions business. Business models are seen in this context as going beyond considerations such as offerings and internal processes or even relationships, and as including network and market considerations. Indeed the paper highlights the fact that a business model is not firm-focused, nor dyad-focused, but rather network-, and even market-focused, demonstrating that a business model is not static, but dynamic. Manufacturer and customer continuously shift form and content of their respective business models to adapt both to the needs of the counterpart and to market context. A qualitative case study approach is adopted, with subsequent content analysis. The case study relates to the aerospace industry with focus on a complex engineering firm, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world, its customer — a national airline — and their network partners of various kinds. The data were collected through multiple face-to-face interviews with managers in both companies, as a part and parcel of a network of actors that influences and is influenced by the supplier–buyer relationship. Relationships over time between these firms and network partners are described, highlighting the interplay of products and services related to the provision of solutions. Findings highlight the dynamic nature of business models over the relationship lifecycle between supplier and customer in a complex engineering environment, and the need for reciprocal adjustment of models.