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121.
E. Bruckner W. Ebeling M. A. Jiménez Montaño A. Scharnhorst 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1996,6(1):1-30
Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome. 相似文献
122.
Tessaleno Devezas Francisco Cristovão L. de Melo Maria Luisa Gregori Maria Cristina V. Salgado Joana R. Ribeiro Christian B.C. Devezas 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2012,79(5):963-985
This article is geared toward shedding some more light on what may be the next space race and its contours.Space flight is undoubtedly a human achievement of the second half of the 20th century, and probably the most audacious one of the past century. The space race started suddenly in the 1950s and has grown explosively during the following two decades, but decreased steadily after the 1970s. After the 1990s, however, we have seen a shy rebirth of space-related activities, when many other actors (states) entered the stage, adding up to the agonizing role of the two-actor piece that we have witnessed during the so-called Cold War.The opening years of the 21st century provided a more complex narrative for space exploration. At the start of the new millennium a new technosphere [1] emerged, dominated by what is used to be called as the Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), with the Internet playing the leading role among the bandwagon of technological novelties that appeared during the twilight of space activities. In despite of the fact that artificial satellites represent the very backbone of the global communications system, space activities seem to play a secondary role amidst the apparently accelerated rate of change concerning the technological systems of the present technosphere. But, as it is demonstrated in this paper, things are changing, and very probably a renewed space race will unfold in the coming decades.A question may be placed: what happened? Why the Earth stood still with regard to the race toward the cosmos? Answer: futurists, even prestigious ones like Herman Kahn and Arthur Clarke, did not consider the existence of socioeconomic long waves (Kondratieff waves, or K-waves for short) with their two decades long economic downturn, which has contributed to the deceleration of space-related activities.Analyzing the worldwide evolving scenario of space-related activities during the last eighty years under the framework of the succeeding K-waves and applying some technological forecasting tools, namely the logistic analysis, technological surveillance and intensive data mining, scrutinizing more than 7500 events occurred in the period 1930–2010 related with space activities, it is demonstrated that the space race like the one that we have witnessed until now is a natural growth process that has saturated at the dawn of this century. The same analysis demonstrates that a new growth process in this field might be nowadays under way with contours very different from that imagined by futurists and science fiction writers sixty years ago. Also the main trends in the usage of launching vehicles and satellites are framed and discussed in this paper. 相似文献
123.
João Ricardo FariaZhongmin Wu 《Economics Letters》2012,114(1):120-123
Using the British Household Panel Survey, this paper finds that inheritance has a concave effect on the hours worked by male entrepreneurs. Receiving an inheritance increases the labor supply of unemployed male entrepreneurs; however this effect becomes smaller for higher inheritances. 相似文献
124.
ABSTRACTIn the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them. 相似文献
125.
This study tests for macro‐hysteresis in Brazilian exports of manufactured products using a panel model with threshold parameters according to Hansen. To test hysteresis, the threshold variables are built based on studies by Parslei and Wei, and Penkova. There is evidence of asymmetrical responses, with more pronounced increases in the price elasticity of demand during periods of high depreciation of the exchange rate compared with periods of more pronounced currency appreciation. We also estimate the relative price intervals that correspond to the inaction band. 相似文献
126.
Miguel A. Ariño Africa Ariño Roberto Garcia‐Castro 《Managerial and Decision Economics》2008,29(8):629-637
In this paper we present a model to evaluate transient industry effects, that is, the impact of business cycles on the industry. While the importance of the economic cycle for industry and firm performance is widely recognized, we do not know much about how much the business cycle influences industry activity. The aim of this paper is to present a method that helps to understand the relationship between the business cycle and an industry's level of activity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
127.
Mário Lino Barata Raposo João J. Matos Ferreira Arminda M. Finisterra do Paço Ricardo J. A. Gouveia Rodrigues 《The International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal》2008,4(4):485-504
The identification of the entrepreneurs’ characteristics and the knowledge of the entrepreneurial profile of university students
have been assuming a growing importance in the development of educational programs directed towards the entrepreneurship and
start-up processes. This study aims to identify the factors that most contribute for the intention to start up a business.
The research also tries to identify the profile of a potential entrepreneur student concerning several characteristics: personal
attributes, family, demographic variables and motivations. Research findings include the idea that entrepreneurship education
is the most relevant factor in what concerns the propensity to business creation. On the other side, personal characteristics
have an important role in shaping motivation to start-up a business and perceived hurdles have a negative impact in the intention
to start-up. The results may be relevant when developing an adequate educational program directed to the entrepreneurship
education and start-up processes. 相似文献
128.
129.
吉林省支农资金的紧张带来了资金的供需缺口,推动地方金融机构通过场外货币市场进行的资金融通业务活跃,而交易动机、流动性管理方式、监管强度不一致等因素,助长了异常交易行为的发生。人民银行长春中心支行立足实践、大胆创新,改进监测方式和监管手段,通过建立风险预警指标体系,对地方性金融机构货币市场业务实施非现场监管,动态监测金融机构流动性状况和市场风险情况,从实践上取得了良好的效果。这些有益的探索和尝试,对开展区域货币市场监管有一定的借鉴意义和参考价值。 相似文献
130.