Nach der Wahl: Was sind die wichtigsten wirtschaftspolitischen Herausforderungen?

Even though Germany’s economy is currently going strong, the country still faces enormous challenges if it wants to maintain and increase this prosperity. The new government should take this opportunity to set the course for the future by encouraging the digitalisation of the economy and the society as well as by ensuring that the ongoing energy transition is sustainable and efficient. Other challenges include the adverse effects of globalisation on parts of society and the uneven distribution of income and wealth. But the actual magnitude of the government’s room to manoeuver is up for debate. The new government’s fiscal space might be more limited than it seems, since an automatic adjustment of the income tax to inflation and growth is required to end the bracket creep. Given that transfer programmes are being phased out, the federal income tax surcharge to finance German unification also needs to be abolished. Further budget pressure stems from the pension system and from demands by state and local as well as European governments. The new German government should use the next governing period to initiate fundamental reforms of economic and fiscal policy that will provide adequate answers to long-run challenges.     

Bitcoins,Blockchain und Distributed Ledgers

Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin were invented to facilitate instant payment services without the need for a central bank or financial intermediaries executing payments. Using cryptographic functions, any user of the bitcoin system can transfer units of the virtual currency globally on an anonymous basis. However, financial supervisory authorities are about to increase regulation of virtual currencies due to concerns that the anonymous character of the system facilitates money laundering and the financing of illegal transactions. Nevertheless, the underlying blockchain technology, or in broader terms the distributed ledger technology, may revolutionise several industries. This paper illustrates the functioning and recent market developments in the bitcoin industry as well as the disruptive potential of the underlying technologies.     

Foreign direct investment via M&A and domestic entrepreneurship: blessing or curse?

There are conflicting predictions in the literature about the relationship between FDI and entrepreneurship. This paper explores how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, measured by lagged cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A), affect entrepreneurial entry in the host economy. We have constructed a micro-panel of more than two thousand individuals in each of seventy countries, 2000–2009, linked to FDI by matching sectors. We find the relationship between FDI inflows and domestic entrepreneurship to be negative across all economies. This negative effect is much more pronounced in developed than developing economies and is also identified within industries, notably in manufacturing. Policies to encourage FDI via M&A need to consider how to counteract the prevailing adverse effect on domestic entrepreneurship.     

Portfolio optimization based on GARCH-EVT-Copula forecasting models

This study uses GARCH-EVT-copula and ARMA-GARCH-EVT-copula models to perform out-of-sample forecasts and simulate one-day-ahead returns for ten stock indexes. We construct optimal portfolios based on the global minimum variance (GMV), minimum conditional value-at-risk (Min-CVaR) and certainty equivalence tangency (CET) criteria, and model the dependence structure between stock market returns by employing elliptical (Student-$t$ and Gaussian) and Archimedean (Clayton, Frank and Gumbel) copulas. We analyze the performances of 288 risk modeling portfolio strategies using out-of-sample back-testing. Our main finding is that the CET portfolio, based on ARMA-GARCH-EVT-copula forecasts, outperforms the benchmark portfolio based on historical returns. The regression analyses show that GARCH-EVT forecasting models, which use Gaussian or Student-$t$ copulas, are best at reducing the portfolio risk.     

Sustainability practices of family firms: the interplay between family ownership and long-term orientation

Sustainability practices are critical for family firms, as they relate directly to the continuity of the business and relationships with important stakeholders, such as members of the local community. Nevertheless, not all family firms wish to adopt sustainability practices. To examine this, we draw upon the socioemotional wealth perspective in order to develop a theoretical model of the direct negative effects of family ownership on the adoption of sustainability practices. We also suggest moderating effects of long-term orientation (LTO) on this link. Our model is tested on a sample of 195 family firms in the tourism and hospitality sector. The results support our hypothesis that family ownership negatively influences the adoption of sustainability practices. Additionally, LTO moderates the relationship between family ownership and the adoption of sustainability practices, such that family owners with a high LTO are more likely to adopt this particular practice compared to those with a low LTO.     

The moderating role of nationality on destination experience

ABSTRACT

Differences in tourists’ cultural values are significant factors in their product and service choices, yet they have generally been neglected in the literature. Therefore, this study examined how tourists’ nationalities influence their perceptions of service quality, affective image perceptions, and revisiting intentions. Activities were found to be more determinant on a destination’s affective image for Russian tourists, whereas accommodation, hospitality, and language communication services had a larger effect on German tourists.     

Smart Meter-Angebote: Eine empirische Untersuchung von Kundenpräferenzen

The implementation of smart meters in German households by 2032 is a major step in the transition towards an intelligent and connected energy system. Despite of federal legislation providing a structured plan for the nationwide smart meter rollout including basic product requirements, actors within the energy market have the opportunity to take an active part in shaping the market through appealing product offers and hence to create competitive advantage. This study identifies relevant features of smart meters from literature und business practice, and measures customer’s preferences for these features. Results indicate predominantly positive customer evaluations of smart meter features, amongst which the availability of consumption data, the installation price and rental charges as well as time variable tariffs contribute most to overall utility of smart meters. Finally, findings suggest targeting customers by defining strategies to address privacy concerns, to educate about saving potentials as well as to create differentiated pricing schemes.     

城市土地空间结构演变及其驱动机制分析

城市土地利用空间结构及其演变一直是城市地理学、城市经济学、城市规划学、土地利用学等学科研究的核心与热点问题.当前我国城市土地利用正处在快速城市化的开端,在未来近半个多世纪的时期中,将一直处于急剧突变进程之中.加强对我国城市土地空间结构演变及其驱动机制的研究,有助于我们从城市用地结构演变的根源分析问题.本文简要概括了城市土地利用空间结构的相关研究,分析了城市用地空间结构演变在空间上的两种表现形式,并在此基础上分析了城市用地空间结构演变的动力主体、驱动力和驱动机制,以期为更好地促进城市土地利用结构的优化提供相应的参考.