A Note on Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates: Evidence of Anti‐herding

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or anti‐herding behavior of exchange‐rate forecasters can be detected in the cross‐section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange‐rate forecasts are consistent with herding (anti‐herding) if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Our empirical findings provide strong evidence of anti‐herding of emerging market exchange‐rate forecasters.     

MONOPOLISTIC LOCATION CHOICE IN A TWO‐SIDED HOTELLING MODEL

We analyse the optimal location choice of a monopolistic firm that operates two arbitrarily located platforms on a two‐sided market. By extending the traditional Hotelling framework, we show that the optimal platform locations are equivalent to the one‐sided benchmark if both sides are either restricted to single‐ or multi‐homing. In the mixed case (one side single‐homes, the other one multi‐homes), the optimal platform locations are in line with the respective symmetric case. If the monopolist is restricted to choosing the same location on either side of the market, the optimal locations are determined by the relative profitability of the market sides.     

STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS: CHECKING IDENTIFYING LONG‐RUN RESTRICTIONS VIA HETEROSKEDASTICITY

Long‐run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just‐identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have been used for this purpose. Three main approaches have been used, exogenously generated changes in the unconditional residual covariance matrix, changing volatility modelled by a Markov switching mechanism and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Using changes in volatility for checking long‐run identifying restrictions in structural VAR analysis is illustrated by reconsidering models for identifying fundamental components of stock prices.     

The Foundations of International Business: Cross‐Border Investment Activity and the Balance between Market‐Power and Efficiency Effects

The foundational international business (IB) scholarship grappled with whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) are largely efficiency‐enhancing or market‐power inducing institutions. Contemporary scholarship, however, often associates foreign direct investment (FDI) with efficiency‐enhancing properties and thus neglects the market‐power interpretation of the MNE. Such an imbalance is problematic given that the theoretical and empirical justifications behind the field's embrace of the efficiency interpretation are not fully evident. Instead, both efficiency and market‐power effects are seemingly present in cross‐border investment activity. Based on a comprehensive sample of up to 4,361 cross‐border investments materializing between 1986 and 2010, we present theoretically‐grounded hypotheses with regard to when market‐power effects will tend to dominate efficiency effects. We find that cross‐border investments undertaken by emerging‐market MNEs in both developed and emerging markets tend to involve substantial efficiency effects and minimal market‐power effects when compared with the cross‐border investments undertaken by developed‐country MNEs in both developed and emerging markets.     

Übernivellierung der Einnahmen aus der Grunderwerbsteuer im künftigen Finanzausgleich

Fiscal Equalisation in Germany provides substantial fiscal redistribution between federal and state and among state governments. However, there is also a degree of tax autonomy for the individual German states. Since 2007, states can adjust their local rate of the Real Estate Transfer Tax. However, if they keep the rate low, they may suffer revenue losses due to fiscal redistribution. The paper considers whether this effect will also be present in the new rules for fiscal equalization which will come in to effect in 2020.     

Rewarding customers who keep a product: How reinforcement affects customers' product return decision in online retailing

A lenient product return policy represents the status quo of current return management practice in online retailing because it increases customers' order tendency. However, at the same time, many customers tend to return products under this policy, which incurs considerable costs for retailers. The present research introduces a keep reward (i.e., providing incentives to keep a product) as a new promotion strategy to improve the conventional lenient policy. Drawing on operant conditioning, the authors propose and test the reinforcing effect of a keep reward on customers' keep decision, compared to the conventional lenient policy. Results of a qualitative pilot study suggest that a keep reward is generally feasible in online retailing practice, especially in the low‐ to mid‐price segment and with rewards that are linked to future purchases. Two experimental studies verify the positive effect of a keep reward. Study 1 shows that it substantially increases keep intention compared to a conventional lenient policy. Study 2 shows that the effect on keep intention is moderated by customers' online shopping frequency, and this moderating effect is mediated by repurchase intention. In particular, the keep reward is most effective among frequent shoppers because they are more inclined to repurchase and thus, benefit from the reward. In summary, both studies support the keep reward as a valuable add‐on to the conventional lenient policy because order intention remains comparably high, while keep intention is higher. Theoretical implications and recommendations for online retailers on how to implement a keep reward in different industries are discussed.     

Budget deficits,money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence

The paper investigates the long-run relationships between budget deficits, inflation and monetary growth in Turkey considering two alternative trivariate systems corresponding to the narrowest and the broadest monetary aggregates. While the joint endogeneity of money and inflation rejects the validity of the monetarist view, lack of a direct relationship between inflation and budget deficits makes the pure fiscal theory explanations illegitimate for the Turkish case. Consistent with the policy regime of financing domestic debt through the commercial banking system, budget deficits lead to a growth not of currency seigniorage but of broad money in Turkey. This mode of deficit financing, leading to the creation of near money and restricting the scope for an effective monetary policy, may not be sustainable, as the government securities/broad money ratio cannot grow without limit.     

Category management and consumer choice

This paper shows the results of an exploratory analysis of the structure of a complex product category: Wine. In complex categories, a usual strategy of consumers is the partitioning of alternatives into homogeneous subsets and the sequential eliminations of subsets until a product/brand is chosen from among few homogeneous alternatives in the last subset. To identify if there is such a kind of strategy and the product attributes involved is of great interest for the retailer. After a discussion of the different modelling alternatives of the choice process, the authors provide an application of the additive trees (ADDTREE) model to explore the hierarchical structure. The ADDTREE results provide a first overview of the competitive market structure of the wine category: competition becomes more intense as the wine category is partitioned by, first, the type of wine criteria and, second, the designation of origin (DO) criteria.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Average Plant Start-Up Size in Turkish Manufacturing Industries

Many studies have found start-up size of a firm to be an important determinant of its subsequent performance and probability of survival. The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of average plant start-up size in 51 four-digit Turkish manufacturing industries for the period 1993?C1999. The results of the study suggest that while industry characteristics such as industry growth rate and capital intensity have a positive impact on the average plant start-up size, industrial concentration, import penetration, and the change in research and development expenditures are negatively associated with the same variable. In addition, the macroeconomic environment is also an important determinant of the choice of plant start-up size. Finally, we find evidence that may indicate ??following?? (herd) behavior in Turkish manufacturing industries.