When Preferences for a Stable Interest Rate Become Self‐Defeating

Monetary policymakers often seem to have preferences for a stable interest rate, in addition to stable inflation and output. In this paper, we investigate the implications of having an interest rate level term in the loss function when the policymaker lacks commitment technology. We show that such preferences may become self‐defeating, in the sense that they generate a less stable interest rate than in the case without preferences for interest rate stability.     

Job losses and child outcomes

Based on matched employer–employee data from Norway, we analyze the effects of worker displacement in 1986–1987 on their children's earnings in 1999–2001. Using displacement of fathers to indicate an exogenous earnings shock we seek to identify whether family resources have a direct effect on children's economic outcome. Job losses appear to have a negative effect on earnings and employment of those affected, while we find no significant effects on earnings of the next generation.     

The Broadband Access Market: Competition,Uniform Pricing and Geographical Coverage

In this paper we analyze the market for broadband access. A key feature of this market is that it is considerably more expensive to connect consumers in rural locations than in urban locations. We show that while competition increases welfare compared to monopoly when prices are free to differ across locations, the opposite may be true if there is a requirement of uniform pricing across locations. Furthermore, we show that given uniform pricing, the regulator may increase consumer surplus as well as profit by requiring a higher regional coverage than the market outcome.     

NUMERICAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS OF FRACTIONAL UNIT ROOT AND COINTEGRATION TESTS

We calculate, by simulations, numerical asymptotic distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for fractional unit roots and cointegration rank. Because these distributions depend on a real‐valued parameter b which must be estimated, simple tabulation is not feasible. Partly owing to the presence of this parameter, the choice of model specification for the response surface regressions used to obtain the numerical distribution functions is more involved than is usually the case. We deal with model uncertainty by model averaging rather than by model selection. We make available a computer program which, given the dimension of the problem, q, and a value of b, provides either a set of critical values or the asymptotic P‐value for any value of the likelihood ratio statistic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transitions From School to Work and the Early Labour Market Experience

We consider transitions from school to work and the early market experience. The duration of post-school unemployment, wages, and job duration are estimated simultaneously. We find that individuals with higher levels ofschooling get jobs more quickly and have longer employment durations. Apprentices have shorter unemployment periods and stay longer in their jobs than others at the same educational level. Females have shorter unemployment periods and lower wages, and also stay in the first job longer. The unemployment duration and the accepted wage affect job duration positively, but the estimated covariance terms suggest unobserved factors working in the opposite direction.     

Imitation,Contagion, or Exertion? Using a Tax Reform to Reveal How Colleagues' Sick Leaves Influence Worker Behaviour

We analyse the social interaction effects in sick‐leave behaviour in the workplace, using high‐quality Norwegian matched employer–employee data with detailed individual information on sick leaves during the 2004–2006 period. We find that social interaction effects in sick‐leave behaviour in the workplace do exist, and that the effects are noticeable in size. The strong relationship between the sick‐leave rates among colleagues is not solely the result of contagious diseases, nor is it caused by improved informational quality or by the increased workload for the non‐absent workers. Evidence supports the existence of reciprocal worker behaviour that is unrelated to joint leisure‐seeking activities.     

Vertical Control and Price Cycles in Gasoline Retailing

We examine Norwegian gasoline pump prices using daily station‐specific observations from 2003 to 2006. The four big gasoline companies use a vertical restraint that is adopted industry‐wide (labeled price support). This moves price control from the hands of independent retailers into the hands of the headquarters. Retail gasoline prices follow a fixed weekly pattern, where we observe de facto simultaneous decision‐making by the headquarters (without knowledge of their rivals’ prices) when every Monday around noon they decide to increase pump prices to the same level. The price level on Mondays corresponds to the recommended prices published by the headquarters of the gasoline companies.     

A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long‐run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long‐run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.