HOW RELIABLE ARE CYCLICALLY ADJUSTED BUDGET BALANCES IN REAL TIME?

Cyclically adjusted budget balances (CABs) are often used to provide an indication of the structural state of public finances. This paper analyzes the reliability of these figures in real time. In a test of the ability to forecast the “final data,” we find that real‐time CABs are outperformed by a simpler methodology. Furthermore, we find that real‐time CABs have low power in detecting fiscal slippages and in correctly identifying fiscal improvements. Finally, we find that CABs are systematically less reliable under conditions of poor or deteriorating public finances, which means they are at their most unreliable precisely when they are needed most. (JEL H62, H87)     

Altering Perceptions Through Repositioning: An Exercise in Framing

This research was conducted to examine the efficacy of repositioning public parks and recreation services in the public mind. Respondents were recruited at various venues throughout a large Canadian city and randomly assigned to one of five groups. After reading hypothetical newspaper format articles, respondents completed questionnaires investigating their beliefs, attitudes, and behavioral intentions regarding a local recreation agency's efforts to reduce youth crime. Four treatment messages contained various combinations of real, psychological, and competitive repositioning messages, while a control group received no information. All types of repositioning messages were effective in improving beliefs and behavioral intentions, but not attitudes. There was no significant evidence that numerical treatment messages were more effective than non-numerical messages or that the cumulative effects of various repositioning messages were more effective than a single type of message. Discussion focuses on efficacy of various framing messages, on suggestions for future research related to repositioning, and on considerations related to social marketing efforts of this nature.     

‘Lines of credit,debts of obligation’: migrant remittances to Britain,c.1875–19131

Britain of the nineteenth century was a net recipient of migrant remittances. Surprisingly little, however, is known about the flow of such funds to the UK. This article addresses this hiatus in several ways. First, it provides an account of the main mechanisms by which remittances were transferred in this period. Second, it presents new estimates of the volume of remittances flowing to Britain between 1875 and 1913, and, in doing so, offers a comparison of remittance patterns between different Anglophone societies. Third, it assesses the significance of remittances for their recipients in the UK. The article ends by considering the implications of all of the above for the way in which historians are currently trying to formulate the concept of a ‘British world’.     

Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs

Large pending fiscal policy changes, such as in the United States in 2012 or in Japan with consumption taxes, often generate considerable uncertainty. “Fiscal cliff” episodes have several features: an announced possible future change, a skewed set of possible outcomes, the possibility that implementation may not actually occur, and a known resolution date. This paper develops a model capturing these features and studies their impact. Fiscal cliff uncertainty shocks have immediate impact, with a magnitude that depends on the probability of implementation, which generates economic volatility. The possibility of fiscal cliffs lowers economic activity even in periods of relative certainty.     

Information and Liquidity

We study how recognizability affects assets’ acceptability, or liquidity. Some assets, like U.S. currency, are readily accepted because sellers can easily recognize their value, unlike stock certificates, bonds or foreign currency, say. This idea is common in monetary economics, but previous models deliver equilibria where less recognizable assets are always accepted with positive probability, never probability 0. This is inconvenient when prices are determined through bargaining, which is difficult with private information. We construct models where agents reject outright assets that they cannot recognize, at least for some parameters. Thus, information frictions generate liquidity differences without overly complicating the analysis.     

Stock Exchange Disclosure and Market Development: An Analysis of 50 International Exchanges

This study examines associations between measures of stock exchange disclosure and market development at 50 of the member stock exchanges of the World Federation of Exchanges. We focus on stock exchange disclosure systems (rather than actual company disclosures) because this approach links stock exchange policy with desired outcomes related to market development (such as liquidity, trading activity, and market size relative to gross domestic product). We find strong support for the hypothesis that the strength of the disclosure system (disclosure rules, monitoring, and enforcement) is positively associated with market development, after controlling for legal system, legal protection of investors, market size, and several other potentially relevant explanatory variables.