Income Level and Inflation Strain in the United States: 1971–1975

A bstract . Estimates of net inflationary effects in the United States from 1971 to 1975 are attempted by income level. The central concept is inflation strain , or the difference between the percentage change in prices and incomes as a percentage of change in incomes. Trends in prices are derived from United States Bureau of Labor Statistics data on lower and higher family budgets , admittedly subject to significant error, but the best we have. Equivalent income trends are estimated from data reported in the P-60 series of the United States Bureau of the Census. Two findings are indicated. The first is that both higher and lower budget families experienced inflation strain, although the strain, of course, was substantially greater for lower budget families. The second finding is that the primary source of strain for the lower budget families was food , whereas the primary source of strain for the higher budget family was taxes , both income and Social Security taxes. The richer are getting poorer more slowly than the poor. Limitations of the techniques and data are analyzed.     

The UK demand for steel

The paper suggests a short-run model of the demand for steel that may be used for forecasting future trends. The paper commences with consideration of a long-run model which is estimated using cointegration analysis. An error correction model is then developed to depict the short-run movements to equilibrium. This can be used for the purpose of ex-post forecasting.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries

Drawing on recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications, the paper examines empirically the effect of exchange rate regimes on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries. Using system generalized methods of moments estimation on a panel of 70 developing countries for the period 1985–2004, we find that developing countries adopting de facto fixed or intermediate regimes significantly outperform those opting for a flexible exchange rate system in attracting FDI flows. No statistically significant differences in the FDI‐inducing properties of fixes, intermediates and floats are found using the International Monetary Fund official classification.     

Can domestication of wildlife lead to conservation? The economics of tiger farming in China

Tigers are a threatened species that might soon disappear in the wild. Not only are tigers threatened by deteriorating and declining habitat, but poachers continue to kill tigers for traditional medicine, decoration pieces and so on. Although international trade in tiger products has been banned since 1987 and domestic trade within China since 1993, tigers continue to be poached and Chinese entrepreneurs have established tiger farms in anticipation of their demise. While China desires to permit sale of tiger products from captive-bred tigers, this is opposed on the grounds that it likely encourages illegal killing. Instead, wildlife conservationists lobby for more spending on anti-poaching and trade-ban enforcement. In this study, a mathematical bioeconomic model is used to investigate the issue. Simulation results indicate that, unless range states are characterized by institutions (rule of law and low corruption) similar to those found in the richest countries, reliance on enforcement alone is insufficient to guarantee survival of wild tigers. Likewise, even though conservation payments could protect wild tigers, the inability to enforce contracts militates against this. Our model indicates that wild tigers can be protected by permitting sale of products from tiger farms, although this likely requires the granting of an exclusive license to sellers. Finally, it is possible to tradeoff enforcement effort and sale of products from captive-bred animals, but such tradeoffs are worsened by deteriorating tiger habitat.     

Retroactive terms adjustment

The concept of Retroactive Terms Adjustment (RTA) emerged as a response to the urgent need for international action on the debt problems of the developing countries. The following article analyses the concept and the contribution RTA has made towards solving the debt problem.     

Procyclical government spending: Patterns of pressure and prudence in the OECD

This paper tests for differences in the cyclicality of government spending across functional categories. Evidence from 20 OECD countries suggests that procyclicality is more likely in smaller functional budgets, but capital spending is more likely to be procyclical for the larger spending categories.     

AIA submission: CEO overconfidence and the incidence of financial restatement

The role of the Chief Executive Officer (hereafter, CEO) in financial reporting is almost universally assumed to be significant (Carcello, Neal, Palmrose & Scholz, 2011; Cohen, Krishnamoorthy, & Wright, 2002; Connelly, 2005; Paredes, 2004). While academics and regulators agree that the CEO can have a large impact on financial reporting decisions, there is very little research on how individual CEO characteristics actually influence the financial reporting process. This paper examines the impact of one such CEO characteristic – CEO overconfidence – on the incidence of financial restatement. We utilize a matched-pairs research design consisting of 75 restatement firms (obtained through the GAO restatement sample) and a set of 75 non-restatement control firms. Using an options-based measure of CEO overconfidence developed by Malmendier and Tate (2008), we document a statistically significant positive relation between CEO overconfidence and financial statement restatement.     

Was It Possible to Stabilise the Price of Wool? Organised Wool Marketing 1916 to 1970

Wool is the only Australian commodity for which there has been an attempt to organise price stability through a buffer stock scheme (1970–91). Growers pressed for the introduction of a scheme since the early 1920s. We test the veracity of claims that the sale of the stockpiles optimised growers' returns. We also simulate the likely outcomes of the reserve price schemes (RPS) proposed in 1925 and 1952, respectively. Our findings are that post-war stockpile disposals did not optimise wool growers' incomes, the undercapitalised proposed RPS of the 1920s would have collapsed in the depression, and that the post-1952 RPS would have been in considerable difficulty.     

The Motivation and Effectiveness of Gas Industry Economic Regulation in New South Wales, 1912–39

The oldest industry in Australia subjected to economic regulation is the gas supply industry in the state of New South Wales. In this paper the aims and motivation of the New South Wales Government in establishing the regulatory regime in 1912 and the subsequent effectiveness in achieving them are determined. Initially the regulatory regime was based on ad hoc arrangements, but eventually a more permanent structure was devised that effectively defused political controversy over gas market pricing and stabilised prices rather than substantially lowered them.     

A Long-run Analysis of Cooperative Housing Societies and Housing Construction in Victoria, Australia

Housing construction is an important component of economic development. The use of cooperative housing societies is one means of channelling scarce financial resources to housing construction. The aim of this paper is to explore the causes of the rapid growth and subsequent decline of the cooperative housing societies as a source of housing finance in the State of Victoria in Australia during the years 1947 to 1992. Significant evidence is established of a strong relationship between the availability of funding for the societies and the growth of their assets. Mixed results are presented for the impact on the general level of housing construction.