Does the information content of payout initiations and omissions influence firm risks?

We study the influence on firm risks of NASDAQ and NYSE firm payout initiations and omissions. These payout events can be interpreted as managerial signals of firm financial life-cycle maturation resulting in concomitant changes in firm risks. We remove confounding payout types and we match on the propensity to initiate or omit informed by determinants of payout known to investors in advance. For payout event and matched firms, we apply the difference-in-differences method to estimate the effect of the information content of actual initiations and omissions on firm risks. We find consistent significant declines in total, aggregate systematic, and idiosyncratic firm risks after cash dividend initiations and increases after dividend omissions, but only incidentally after share repurchase initiations and omissions.     

Cross-section of option returns and volatility

We study the cross-section of stock option returns by sorting stocks on the difference between historical realized volatility and at-the-money implied volatility. We find that a zero-cost trading strategy that is long (short) in the portfolio with a large positive (negative) difference between these two volatility measures produces an economically and statistically significant average monthly return. The results are robust to different market conditions, to stock risks-characteristics, to various industry groupings, to option liquidity characteristics, and are not explained by usual risk factor models.     

Portfolio Composition and Valuation Effects in Emerging Market Economies*

ABSTRACT

The increase in cross-border assets and liabilities of nations with globalization, implies small asset price and currency movements create large wealth changes. The national net external position is increasingly driven by valuation effects, which the current account does not capture. We analyze valuation effects for a group of seven emerging economies, namely Brazil, Colombia, India, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Peru and Turkey for the time period 2005:Q1-2015:Q4 by scrutinizing their external asset portfolio while controlling for country fundamentals. Both asset and liability categories of Direct Investment equity are found to positively impact valuation. Equity liabilities and debt assets of Portfolio Investment positively influence valuation. Debt liabilities of all kinds of investment negatively impact valuation. Countries with stronger currency tend to gain through valuation effects. An appreciated real effective exchange rate is associated with higher valuation gains. We also found non-linear effects of the composition of external debt portfolio by interacting external portfolio and country characteristics. The external portfolio selection of emerging economies (with more in Direct Investment equity liabilities and Portfolio Investment debt assets) in the period has shielded them from global volatility, and enabled valuation gains.     

Investor Myopia and CEO Turnover

We find that Chief Executive Officer (CEO) turnover is significantly higher and considerably less sensitive to performance in firms with short investor horizons. Decisions to dismiss a CEO lead to worse operating performance, which is even poorer when investors have short horizons. Furthermore, new managers respond to investor short‐termism by increasing industry‐adjusted capital expenditures while maintaining R&D and patenting activity. In addition, in firms with short‐horizon investors, total risk increases around forced CEO turnovers, largely because of an increase in idiosyncratic risk. The evidence is consistent with short‐term investors distorting corporate policies of firms through their influence on top management turnover.     

Transforming Business Models in Fast-Emerging Markets–Lessons from India

There is a need for understanding the entrepreneurship and business models in the emerging economies, especially the fast-expanding ones, from a different perspective as compared to the developed economies. The consistent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, significant socioeconomic potential, untapped needs of the population, and economic growth potential in the fast-expanding emerging economies like the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have changed the paradigm for investment, thereby creating a new economic development reality and focus for the global companies. However, achieving success in these emerging markets has its own unique mix of challenges. This requires a transformative and innovative mind-set toward conceptualization of a working business model that can fit into the reality of the socioeconomic and cultural challenges of these emerging markets. Further, the business model changes and alignment in these emerging markets require closer analysis and understanding of the global trends as well as ability to leverage the emerging technologies and linkages. The objective of this article is to explore the magnitude of opportunities and emerging business models transforming the socioeconomic landscape in fast-expanding emerging markets. In doing so, the article attempts to provide an overview of the emerging business model typologies and patterns that will enable the global companies to make better-informed decisions and build their presence in the fast-expanding emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Measuring the impact of brand-celebrity personality congruence on purchase intention

The present study aims to understand the impact of congruence between brand and celebrity personality on consumers attitude and purchase intentions. The data were collected from 382 business school students in India. Drawing from the theoretical frameworks of Attribution theory, Attitude theory, User imagery, Elaboration Likelihood Model, and match-up hypothesis, results reveals that congruence between celebrity and brand personality positively impacts the brand recall, brand associations, and reinforces the brand personality. Which favorably and significantly impacted attitude toward the advertisement and brand. Attitude toward brand has positively impacted purchase intention. ‘Brand personality self-image congruence’ and ‘involvement level with the brand’ were found to moderate the impact of brand association and brand personality reinforcement on attitude toward advertisements and brand. The paper provides practical implications for the advertisement agencies and media managers.     

Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending

Japan's interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges. Twenty years of current‐account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims – mainly dollars – on foreigners. Because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets. In the 1990s to 2002 as US interest rates have come down, portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero. One consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for Japanese monetary policy. A second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of Japan's commercial banks, leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans.     

The Coal Mine Mafia of India: A Mirror of Corporate Power

An investigation of the source of power of mafia‐type organizations may reveal how other non‐state actors can operate as if they are independent of the state. This study of the coal mafia in Dhanbad, India shows that power often derives from socially hierarchical relationships involving debt and/or caste. It also demonstrates how state policies that are thoughtlessly implemented may solidify existing hierarchies. By analogy, modern corporations gain some of their power by behaving as if they were semi‐sovereign institutions that draw their strength informally from social networks and other extralegal relationships. The mafia in the Dhanbad coalfields emerged through a series of institutional changes. Labor shortages were initially resolved by labor intermediaries, who eventually controlled the labor through linkages associated with debt, caste, and social obligations. These intermediaries eventually assumed official positions in labor unions, which gave them a platform for electoral politics. When the coal industry was nationalized, the union leaders further solidified their position in the nationalized corporation. In this way, private labor intermediaries became local political leaders who controlled the state apparatus to some extent. Corporations follow similar patterns. Both mafias and corporations exploit weak governments, collude with them, and often operate with a high degree of independence. Like mafias, corporations often derive their power from socially embedded networks that they craft in local communities and populations. Because the roots of their influence are embedded in social networks, simple legal and regulatory changes are often insufficient to limit their power. Transnational corporations engaged in extraction of natural resources share with mafias the ability to leverage monopoly power in one domain into control of other domains. As a result, this case study of the coal mafia in India offers a unique entry point to understand corporate sovereignty.     

Integration and diversity

Experimental Economics - We study a setting where individuals prefer to coordinate with others but they differ on their preferred action. Our interest is in understanding the role of link formation...     

Regulatory independence and thermal power plant performance: evidence from India

Journal of Regulatory Economics - We examine the role of regulatory independence on electricity generation performance in India. Electricity generation in India is exposed to several regulatory...