美国政府的能源安全观

“9·11”事件后美国政府推出了一揽子能源政策。美国为什么把能源安全与国家安全问题联系在一起?如何把能源政策纳入外交和全球战略?提高能源效率的措施是否足以满足美国能源需求的增长?为什么布什政府强调要增加国内能源产量和改善能源基础设施?请看美国能源部部长阿布拉罕在胡佛研究院研讨会上对这些问题发表的看法。     

Strategic human capital and the performance of public sector organizations

Organization scientists have long considered human capital as a strategic asset that contributes to organizational effectiveness. Whereas the strategic importance of human capital has been widely studied in the case of for-profit organizations, measurement difficulties and the role of human capital in the public sector have received little attention. The present study attempts to bridge this gap by suggesting a behavioral approach to measuring organization-specific human capital and examining its impact on the financial performance of local government authorities in Israel. The results confirm the strategic importance of human capital. Local government authorities that possess strategic human capital—namely, a workforce that is highly educated, that exhibits organization-specific competencies and experience, and that is valuable, unique, and imperfectly imitable—exhibited a better financial performance, as measured by a three-financial ratio scale over 2 fiscal years.     

Pricing currency options with scheduled and unscheduled announcement effects on volatility

It is well documented that exchange rate volatility is time-varying and that it can be affected by scheduled events such as money supply announcements and unscheduled ones such as spot market interventions and interest rate changes. This study provides a European event model (E model) for currency call options that explicitly addresses the volatility effects of these two classes of events. Managers who are concerned with hedging in an environment of changing volatility may find the E model useful. The E and modified Black-Scholes (MBS) models have similar average errors in predicting option price changes across event windows and do better than a naive no-change prediction. The E model tends to reduce the underpricing of convex, short-term out-of-the-money options and the mispricing of most classes of convex options.     

Founders versus non-founders in large companies: financial incentives and the call for regulation

This paper is intended to question some of the premises in the ever increasing calls to regulate executive pay. We focus on founders, and extend Shleifer and Vishny’s (1989, Journal of Political Economy, 94, 461–488) manager-specific investments model by explicitly modeling managerial effort and pay performance sensitivity. Tests of this model on a data set of large companies, controlling for the endogeneity of managerial compensation, indicate that founders tend to be less responsive to performance incentives and generally more entrenched. At the same time, founders’ led firms are more valuable, supporting our predictions. This suggests that for founders, regulation of compensation may not be very effective.      

The future oriented society Axioms and methodology

A social psychologist looks at modern man's image of things to come and assesses its very powerful motivation. He deduces that this image is split into a number of planes—short range, medium range, long range and very long range, and he describes the characteristics of each. Having established how these attitudes are conditioned he then describes a series of methods in which they are used.     

Dimentions of tourist satisfaction with a destination area

Pizam, Abraham, Yoram Neumann, and Arie Reichel.. “Dimensions of Tourist Satisfaction with a Destination Area,” Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. V, No. 3, July/September 1978, pp. 314–322. This paper empirically identifies eight factors of tourist satisfaction with Cape Cod, Massachusetts (USA) as a tourist destination area; and it suggests the means to measure them. By using a factor-analytic approach based on data obtained from a survey of 685 vacationing tourist, the following factors of tourist satisfaction were derived: beach oppurtunities, cost, hospitality, eating and drinking facilities, accommodation facilities, environment, and extent of commercialization.     

Seasonality in stock returns and volatility: The Ramadan effect

Calendar anomalies in stock returns are well documented. Less obvious is the existence of seasonality in return volatility associated with moving calendar events such as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Using a GARCH specification and data for the Saudi Arabian stock market – now the largest stock market in the Muslim world – this paper documents a systematic pattern of decline in volatility during Ramadan, implying a predictable variation in the market price of risk. An examination of trading data shows that this anomaly appears to be consistent with a decline in trading activity during Ramadan. Evidence of systematic decline in volatility during Ramadan has significant implications for pricing of securities especially option-like products and asset allocation decisions by investors in the Islamic countries.     

Repeated Games with Bounded Entropy

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the maxmin values of repeated two-person zero-sum games with a bound on the strategic entropy of the maximizer's strategies while the other player is unrestricted. We will show that if the bound η(n), a function of the number of repetitions n, satisfies the condition η(n)/n → γ (n → ∞), then the maxmin value Wⁿ(η(n)) converges to (cav U)(γ), the concavification of the maxmin value of the stage game in which the maximizer's actions are restricted to those with entropy at most γ. A similar result is obtained for the infinitely repeated games. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C73, C72.     

Can a Wrongful Discharge Statute Really Benefit Employers?

Overall, there is overwhelming empirical support for the hypothesis that the Wrongful Discharge From Employment Act benefited employers in Montana. Shareholder returns were significantly higher given the Act than they would have been absent the law. This reflects shareholders' estimate of the effects of the Act on the future profitability of their firms. The increase in profitability would have been due to the benefits the Act gave to employers in Montana.