Putting the Cart before the Horse? Re-Examining the Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

In addition to the standard Granger causality, this paper employs the Toda–Yamamoto approach and instantaneous causality test to examine the causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth in 10 sub-Saharan African countries utilizing time series data. Findings from both the standard Granger causality and Toda–Yamamoto approach are consistent and robust only in five countries where domestic savings and economic growth are completely independent in three countries. For the remaining two, causality runs from savings to growth. However, for the other five countries, findings produced from both causality tests are grossly inconsistent and mixed leaving us under a quandary although the Toda–Yamamoto test is often reliable on account of its ability to avoid misleading results associated with the asymptotic nature of the standard Granger causality test. Our findings further reveal an instantaneous unidirectional causality from domestic savings to economic growth for only Benin, Mali, and South Africa suggesting that savings-led growth is rapid for these countries. We conclude based on our findings that the myriad of ‘evidence’ in earlier studies on savings-growth causality should be treated with caution given that methodological differences can produce misleading results with the potential of misdirecting policy.     

Von der Inflationsphobie bis zur „schwarzen Null“

The article examines some of the key statements of the supply-side economic theory that rejects debt-financed government investment programs for stabilizing high employment. It turns out that supply-side objections are not empirically proven. Subsequently, the author attempts to explain why nevertheless the supply-side paradigm stubbornly remains the prevailing theory in economics. It shows that the mechanisms of deliberative democracy in the economic decision-making in Germany do not work.     

Strip Clubs, “Secondary Effects” and Residential Property Prices

Municipalities regulate sexually oriented businesses (SOBs) through the “secondary effects” doctrine, which justifies limiting First Amendment speech protections inside SOBs. Negative effects of SOBs on nearby neighborhood quality are a frequently cited secondary effect. Little empirical evidence exists that SOBs generate such negative externalities. If SOBs generate negative externalities, then nearby property prices should decrease when a strip club opens. We estimate regression models of housing prices to determine the effect of new clubs on nearby residential property prices in Seattle, exploiting the termination of a 17‐year moratorium on openings and find no evidence that strip clubs have “secondary effects.”     

Bankruptcy costs, liability dollarization, and vulnerability to sudden stops

Countries with intermediate levels of institutional quality suffer larger output contractions following sudden stops of capital inflows than less developed nations. However, countries with strong institutions seldom experience significant falls in output after capital flow reversals. We reconcile these two observations using a calibrated DSGE model that extends the financial accelerator framework developed in Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). The model captures financial market institutional quality with creditors' ability to recover assets from bankrupt firms. Bankruptcy costs affect vulnerability to sudden stops directly but also indirectly by affecting the degree of liability dollarization. Simulations reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between bankruptcy costs and the output loss following sudden stops.