Delay Dynamics in a Classical IS‐LM Model with Tax Collections

An IS‐LM model is developed for the dynamics of income, interest rate and money stock with delay in tax revenue. The main aim is to show that the delay matters in macro dynamics. Two different delays, fixed time delays and continuously distributed time delays, are considered explicitly and described by delay‐differential equations and integro‐differential equations, respectively. Conditions for the local stability of the two models are derived and compared. The destabilizing effects caused by the delay are numerically examined. Appearance of wide spectrum of dynamics ranging from simple cyclic oscillations to complex dynamics is described through Hopf bifurctions.     

Discrete-time delay dynamics of boundedly rational monopoly

This paper discusses the delay dynamics of monopoly with discrete timescales. It is assumed that a monopoly has delayed and limited information on demand. It is also assumed that the firm wants to react to an average of past data instead of reacting to sudden market changes and this average is used to determine the marginal profit. In the case of one-step delay, the output of the previous time period is selected. In the cases of two and three delays where data at one, two, and three previous time periods are available, it is shown that the steady state undergoes to complex dynamics through either a period-doubling or a Neimark–Sacker bifurcation, depending on the specified values of the parameters. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results. Finally, the case of geometric delay is also analyzed to show the birth of the period-doubling bifurcation.     

A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

Conservation Auctions and Compliance: Theory and Evidence from Laboratory Experiments

Many agri-environmental conservation programs are faced with the problem of imperfect monitoring. This provides farmers with an incentive for noncompliance, because they can receive subsidies without implementing the conservation scheme. In this paper, bidding behavior and auction performance are compared for discriminatory-price and uniform-price auctions in an imperfect monitoring environment. Our theoretical analysis suggests that auction performances are equalized between the discriminatory-price and uniform-price auctions. However, laboratory experiments reveal that, although the discriminatory-price auction has an advantage in terms of reducing policy costs, it is more likely to cause adverse selection. As a result, the uniform-price auction tends to have higher efficiency and cost-effectiveness when compliance behavior is taken into account.     

A heterogeneous agent model of asset price dynamics with two time delays

This study constructs a heterogeneous agents model of a financial market in a continuous-time framework. There are two types of agents, fundamentalists and chartists. The former follows the traditional efficiency market theory and has a linear demand function, whereas the latter experiences delays in the formation of price trends and possesses a S-shaped demand function. The main feature of this study is a theoretical investigation on the effects caused by two time delays in a price adjustment process. In particular, two main results are demonstrated: One is that the stability switching curves are analytically derived, and the other is that the stability losses and gains can repeatedly occur when the shape of the curves are meandering. Although it is well known that a time delay has a destabilizing effect, these results imply that multiple delays can stabilize and destabilize a market price generating persistent deviations from the stationary price.     

The Impact of Japanese Economic Cooperation on Asian Economic Development

The main objective of this paper is to overview the developments of Japan's ODA and assess, in a quantitative manner, their economic impacts on Asian countries. The benefits of two alternative measures—one from capital formation by Japan's ODA loans and the other from import liberalization in the Japanese market—are compared. Those economy-wide impacts of aid and trade on six Asian countries—China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—are estimated by a CGE model of global trade, incorporating a certain mechanism of dynamic capital formation. Japan's ODA loans are effective for economic growth in the countries. Real GDP gains range from 0.1 to 1.6% annually. Trade liberalization is efficient to improve economic welfare. Utility gains range from 0.2 to 1.9%, which exceed those on account of Japan's ODA. Variations in those economic impacts are much more significantly observed when examined by sector.     

Dynamic complexity in a stochastic rationing model

We have constructed a simple discrete-time macroeconomic model founded on individuals' stochastic optimizing behavior. Actual transactions are carried out in a sequence of disequilibrium markets in which the level of aggregate trade is the lesser of aggregate demand and supply, and in which the individual faces all-or-nothing basis stochastic rationing. In such environments, the actual transaction an individual obtains is generally different from the expectation he forms. This difference is a source of macro-dynamics. The paper demonstrates that, through the interactions of individuals in different markets, the expectation adjustment process is inherently nonlinear and generates complex dynamics involving chaos.I am indebted to Professors Richard Day, James Dulgeroff, Hajime Hori, Osamu Kamoike, Masahiro Okuno-Fujiwara, Makoto Towada, Makoto Yano, and two referees of this Journal for helpful comments and many constructive suggestions to improve the quality of this paper substantially. I am grateful to financial support from Tohyo Trust Bank. All remaining errors are my responsibility.     

Airline Schedule Competition and the Entry Route Choices of Low‐Cost Carriers

This study investigates the entry route choices of low‐cost carriers (LCCs). A LCC considers whether to enter a spoke route or a rim route of a major carrier's hub‐spoke network. Under a Cournot schedule competition model, we demonstrate that rim entry is more profitable for LCCs if connecting passengers' hub‐through additional travel time cost is large, and spoke entry is more profitable if this time cost is small. Welfare analysis shows that rim entry is socially preferable when the time cost is large and that spoke entry is socially preferable when the time cost is small. In a certain range of time costs, however, LCCs choose spoke entry even though it is not socially preferable.