REAL OPTIONS WITH COMPETITION AND REGIME SWITCHING

In this paper, we examine irreversible investment decisions in duopoly games with a variable economic climate. Integrating timing flexibility, competition, and changes in the economic environment in the form of a cash flow process with regime switching, the problem is formulated as a stopping‐time game under Stackelberg leader‐follower competition, in which both players determine their respective optimal market entry time. By extending the variational inequality approach, we solve for the free boundaries and obtain optimal investment strategies for each player. Despite the lack of regularity in the leader's obstacle and the cash flow regime uncertainty, the regime‐dependent optimal policies for both the leader and the follower are obtained. In addition, we perform comprehensive numerical experiments to demonstrate the properties of solutions and to gain insights into the implications of regime switching.     

What is the added value of an organic label? Proposition of a model of transfer from the perspective of ingredient branding

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the added value of an organic ingredient strategy and the transfer mechanisms at work when placing an organic label on product brands. We proposed and empirically tested an integrated model that included three stages: brand and label equity; transfer mechanisms; and product evaluation. We first selected an organic label and product brands and then tested our hypotheses with a sample of French consumers. The results confirm the positive influence of brand and label equity on transfer mechanisms (brand/label perceived fit and ease of transfer) and, in turn, illustrate how ease of transfer influences the overall product evaluation. A surprising result is that brand/label perceived fit does not directly affect the overall product evaluation; rather, it only influences brand/label ease of transfer.     

BOOK REVIEWSS

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Eichengreen, Barry, and Lindert, Peter H. (Eds.), The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989, 282 pages.

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Gill, William J., Trade Wars Against America: A History of United States Trade and Monetary Policy, New York: Praeger, 1990, xvi + 325 pages.

Destler, I. M., and C. Randall Henning, Dollar Politics: Exchange Rate Policy-making in the United States, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1989, xi + 174 pages.

Schott, Jeffrey J. (Ed.), Completing the Uruguay Round, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1990, x + 223 pages.     

Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long

If an investor borrows in a low interest currency and invests in a high interest currency, the interest differential accrues in a lumpy manner, formally just like the dividend payments on a stock. The investor will receive the interest differential discretely at the point when a position is rolled over from one day to the next. A position that is not held open overnight receives no interest differential because intradaily interest rates are zero. Using a large data set of intradaily exchange rate data, we run uncovered interest parity (UIP) regressions over different short time intervals taking careful account of the settlement rules in the spot foreign exchange market. We find results that are supportive of the uncovered interest parity hypothesis over very short windows of data that span the time of the discrete interest payment. However, adding even a few hours to the span of the window destroys the positive uncovered interest parity results.     

Consuming in one's mind: An exploration

Consumer research generally focuses on the consumption of tangible objects and experiences, which are concrete. However, consumers often consume in their minds by fantasizing, dreaming, or imagining that they possess some desired object or that they are living some experience. In this article, the term consumption dreams is used to refer to mental representations of consumption objects that consumers desire and experiences that they want to realize. These are distinguished from uncontrolled mental activities that occur when asleep. The results of two exploratory studies that examined consumption dreams are presented. In the first study, five adult consumers were asked about their most important consumption dream, as well as the factors that influenced this dream and the behaviors that ensued. The second study consisted of a survey of 195 adult consumers where the determinants and consequences of consumption dreaming were probed. It was found that indulging in consumption dreaming is a common activity among most consumers and that consumption dreams and their characteristics depend on general as well as dream‐based variables. In addition, those dreams were found to impact on several consumer behaviors. A causal model involving a subset of the variables examined in this exploratory research was put forward and tested with the survey data. The results showed the value of a proposed conceptual framework to generate theoretical propositions about consumption dreaming. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Some results about averaging in stochastic approximation

The paper presents some results concerning the averaging approach in a general linear regression model in one dimension under suitable conditions about the martingale structure of errors. At first asymptotics of the primary and averaged estimators are discussed. Then it is shown that variances of estimators can be consistently estimated by appropriate integrated squared deviations functionals. Finally applications to the construction of confidence regions are considered.     

Regulation of relationships between heterogeneous farmers and an aquifer accounting for lag effects

Many environmental problems are due to damage caused by pollutants that accumulate with a time lag following their emission. In this study, we focus on nitrates used in agriculture, which can pollute groundwater many years after their initial application. A dynamic optimal control problem with heterogeneous farmers is proposed. The usual structural parameters such as the discount rate, the natural clearing rate and the lagged time interval between the occurrence of soil‐level pollution and the impact on groundwater are taken into account. We also examine pollution as caused by a continuous set of farms characterised by their individual performance index and by their individual marginal contribution to the pollution. The issue is further investigated by taking account of change in the information context, successively related to perfect information and to asymmetric information. As a result, when the delay between the spreading of N‐fertilizer and the impact on the aquifer increases, that is, the longer the lag, the steady‐state pollution stock and the steady‐state shadow price of the stock both increase. Moreover, we show that the optimal regulation may require a decreasing amount of fertilizer over time, even in the case of initial underpollution.     

A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa

This paper uses large Factor Models (FMs), which accommodate a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting the per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy. The FMs used in this study contain 267 quarterly series observed over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the RMSEs of one- to four-quarter-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate that the FMs tend to outperform alternative models such as an unrestricted VAR, Bayesian VARs (BVARs) and a typical New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model in forecasting the three variables under consideration, hence indicating the blessings of dimensionality.     

Asymptotic behavior and optimal properties of a consumption-investment model with variable time preference

This paper analyzes the convergence properties and the determination of an optimal consumption path in the consumption-investment model of Uzawa (1968). Sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the optimal path are presented. Components of the utility functional are recovered when the optimal path is piecewise affine. The model is applied to the determination of the interest rate and income distribution under time preference differentials.