A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa

This paper uses large Factor Models (FMs), which accommodate a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting the per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy. The FMs used in this study contain 267 quarterly series observed over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the RMSEs of one- to four-quarter-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate that the FMs tend to outperform alternative models such as an unrestricted VAR, Bayesian VARs (BVARs) and a typical New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model in forecasting the three variables under consideration, hence indicating the blessings of dimensionality.     

Federalism and Conflicts over Principalship. Some Insights into the American Constitutional History

The article provides an economic interpretation of Kelsen's theory of decentralized governments. It helps to distinguish different forms of federalism and in particular the corresponding conflicts of principalship inside the governmental structure. The model is applied to the early American constitutional history and shows how opposed views of agency relationships in the constitution foreshadowed what would later end up in a civil war.     

Altruism and Determinacy of Equilibria in Overlapping Generations Models with Externalities

This paper deals with an OLG model with production and a single commodity, in which agents are assumed altruistic and the aggregate production function contains external effects. I prove that, if the technology satisfies a minor assumption, which encompasses positive and negative externalities, some curvature conditions on the utility function ensure local determinacy of stationary and period 2 equilibria. I prove that non-separable, strictly concave preferences are a fundamental ingredient for the occurrence of indeterminate equilibria. Finally, considering the case of unbounded growth, I establish that for any utility and production functions a unique balanced growth path is globally determinate.
JEL Classification Numbers: C62, E32     

Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration

The paper considers n-dimensional VAR models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common cyclical features. Two specific reduced rank vector error correction models are discussed. In one, named the “strong form” and denoted by SF, the collection of all coefficient matrices of a VECM has rank less than n, in the other, named the “weak form” and denoted by WF, the collection of all coefficient matrices except the matrix of coefficient of error correction terms has rank less than n. The paper explores the theoretical connections between these two forms, suggests asymptotic tests for each form and examines the small sample properties of these tests by Monte Carlo simulations.     

Trade mechanism selection in markets with frictions

We endogenize the trade mechanism in a search economy with many homogeneous sellers and many heterogeneous buyers of unobservable type. We study how heterogeneity and the traders' continuation values—which are endogenous—influence the sellers' choice of trade mechanism. Sellers trade off the probability of an immediate sale against the surplus expected from it, choosing whether to trade with everyone and how quickly. In equilibrium sellers may simply target one buyer type via non-negotiable offers (price posting), or may price discriminate (haggling). We also study when haggling generates trading delays. A price setting externality arises because of a strategic complementarity in the sellers' pricing choices.     

ATTAINABLE CLAIMS IN A MARKOV MARKET1

It is shown how, even when the market is incomplete, certain contingent claims are attainable: that is, they can be represented as stochastic integrals with respect to the process which describes the evolution of the asset prices.     

Asymptotic behavior and optimal properties of a consumption-investment model with variable time preference

This paper analyzes the convergence properties and the determination of an optimal consumption path in the consumption-investment model of Uzawa (1968). Sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the optimal path are presented. Components of the utility functional are recovered when the optimal path is piecewise affine. The model is applied to the determination of the interest rate and income distribution under time preference differentials.