THE HARROD–BALASSA–SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS: REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND THEIR LONG‐RUN EQUILIBRIUM*

Frictions and perturbations may influence currency values in the short run, but it is generally acknowledged that real‐exchange rates eventually settle toward equilibrium. The puzzle then is how gradually this parity is reached given the fluidity in foreign exchange markets. Persistent differences in the relative productivity of countries—a broad characterization of the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis—may help explain this puzzle. This article introduces methods to estimate equilibrium adjustment paths semiparametrically, and then sort how each of these components influences the dynamics of exchange rates. This is done in a dynamic panel setting by introducing novel local projections methods for cointegrated systems. Productivity shocks affect dynamics, and after adjusting for these factors, adjustment toward equilibrium is relatively rapid.     

BANKING LICENCES, BAILOUTS AND REGULATOR ABILITY

I analyse a model in which it is socially optimal for banks to manage depositor funds but in which concerns about fraud discourage depositing and justify regulation. The regulator screens bankers and decides the level of charter value which they will receive as incentive to prevent fraud. She can also encourage deposits by insuring them. The optimal policy depends upon the regulator's screening ability: high ability regulators rely upon charter value and low ability regulators rely upon deposit insurance. I relate these findings to the regulation of transition economy banks, to operational risk management, and to banking competition policy.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies

Using a panel dataset of bilateral flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), we study the determinants of FDI from Western countries, mainly in the European Union (EU), to Central and Eastern European ones. We find the most important influences to be unit labor costs, gravity factors, market size, and proximity. Interestingly, host country risk proves not to be a significant determinant. Our empirical work also indicates that announcements about EU Accession proposals have an impact on FDI for the future member countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 775–787.     

Exchange Rate Pass‐through: The Role of Regime Changes

We consider the effect on the degree of exchange rate pass‐through of the exchange rate regime in operation. We test the hypothesis that pass‐through will be lower under a float as firms may be reluctant to pass appreciations or depreciations on to their customers when there is a strong chance that they will be subsequently reversed. Taylor’s hypothesis that pass‐through will be lower in a low‐inflation environment is also considered. Both hypotheses are assessed in relation to the price of manufactured imports into New Zealand and we find that, whereas the shift to a float dramatically lowered the degree of pass‐through, the later shift to a low‐inflation regime has no significant additional effect on the pass‐through relationship.     

Expressive Constitutionalism

We argue that the standard Constitutional Political Economy defence of constitutionalism, that derives from an argument relating to the shift from narrowly self-interested motivations in the in-period context to relatively general-interest decision making in the constitutional context, is flawed precisely because it is intended to relate to essentially political settings where decision making must be construed as collective in nature. We suggest an alternate account of expressive constitutionalism that points to a specific defence of constitutional conventions that are insulated from popular voting.     

Improving the econometric precision of regulatory models

Regulatory regimes often attempt to introduce quasi-competitive pressures by undertaking comparative efficiency assessments between the regulated companies and setting company-specific cost reduction targets based on those comparisons. The UK water industry is one example of such a regime—indeed, it has emphasized the importance of maintaining the number of independent companies in order to preserve the robustness of the modeling. For example, in 2007, the Competition Commission considered whether the merger between Mid Kent Water and South East Water might prejudice the ability of the regulator (Ofwat) to make comparisons across water companies for the purposes of assessing performance and setting price controls. In this paper, we examine this issue and provide specific recommendations to regulators. Our cross-sectional results show that the impact of this merger is not significant. We demonstrate that joint estimation of all the sub-models using the ‘seemingly unrelated regression’ (SUR) procedure in a cross-section and/or panel data framework can dramatically improve the accuracy of the modeling. Moreover, the merger does not affect the confidence intervals significantly under such approaches, which still remain far superior to those under Ofwat’s cross-sectional approach. Based on these results, we recommend that Ofwat and other regulators adopt SUR and/or panel data analysis and thereby reduce their reliance on having sufficient numbers of independent companies.     

Inference with dependent data using cluster covariance estimators

This paper presents an inference approach for dependent data in time series, spatial, and panel data applications. The method involves constructing t and Wald statistics using a cluster covariance matrix estimator (CCE). We use an approximation that takes the number of clusters/groups as fixed and the number of observations per group to be large. The resulting limiting distributions of the t and Wald statistics are standard t and F distributions where the number of groups plays the role of sample size. Using a small number of groups is analogous to ‘fixed-b’ asymptotics of [Kiefer and Vogelsang, 2002] and [Kiefer and Vogelsang, 2005] (KV) for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent inference. We provide simulation evidence that demonstrates that the procedure substantially outperforms conventional inference procedures.