Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach

Previous studies of UK house prices, developed from the demand and supply ofhousing or from the asset market approach have been poor in terms of robustness and ex-post forecasting ability. The UK housing market has suffered a number of structural changes, particularly since the early 1980s with substantial house price increases, financial market deregulation and the removal of mortgage market constraints through competition. Consequently, models which assume that the underlying data-generating process is stable and apply constant parameter techniques tend to suffer in terms of parameter instability. This article uses the Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) methodology where the underlying data-generating process in the UK housing market is treated as unstable. The estimation results of the TVC regression of UK house prices is compared with those obtained from three alternative constant parameter regressions. Comparisons of forecasting performance suggest the TVC regression out-performs forecasts from an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and an Autoregressive Time Series regression.     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

Management-Science and Business-Ethics

Many leading management scientists have advocated ethicalism: the incorporation of social and ethical concerns into traditional "rational" OR-MS techniques and management decisions. In fact, elementary forms of decision analysis can readily be augmented, using ethical theory, in ways that sweep in ethical issues. In addition, alternative conceptual models of Decision-Analysis, Game-Theory and Optimality are now available, all of which have brought OR-MS and Business-Ethics into a closer alignment.     

Do Australian companies manage earnings to meet simple earnings benchmarks?

Measurement error in unexpected accruals is an important problem for empirical earnings management research. Several recent studies avoid this problem by examining the pooled, cross–sectional distribution of reported earnings. Discontinuities in the distribution of reported earnings around key earnings thresholds may indicate the exercise of management discretion (i.e. earnings management). We apply this approach to the detection of earnings management by Australian firms. Our results generally indicate significantly more small earnings increases and small profits than expected and conversely, considerably fewer small earnings decreases and small losses than expected. These results are much stronger for larger Australian firms. We undertake an exploratory analysis of alternative explanations for our results and find some evidence consistent with management signalling its inside knowledge about the firm's expected future profitability to smooth earnings, as opposed to 'management intent to deceive' as an explanation for our results.     

Exploring purchasing integration in product development

With increasing outsourcing and the growing importance of product innovation as a means for creating competitive advantage, the integration of purchasing and product development processes has become a key issue for many firms. Although, consequently, the integration of purchasing and suppliers in product development has attracted growing attention from practitioners and researchers, most research on the topic remains limited to the context of single development projects. The integration with long-term issues such as technological alignment between supplier and manufacturer is often neglected. This limited conception and the lack of a coherent definition of what purchasing integration in product involvement is form a major impediment to the advancement of knowledge in this field. Therefore, this article develops a framework encompassing various activities across different management levels, which embody the alignment and integration of purchasing and product development processes.     

Communication in international business-to-business marketing channels: Does culture matter?

As business-to-business marketing channels become more international in scope, communication in channels occurs among a more diverse set of channel participants from different national cultures. Do such cultural variations influence channel communications and if so, how? This study examines these questions in international business-to-business marketing channels comprised of channel members representing different cultural contexts. The findings show that there is a relationship between culture and channel communication in international channels. This influence stemming from “cultural distance” may have significant implications as business moves into the E-commerce era of Internet-based B2B international channels of distribution.     

Industrial distributors: Can they survive in the new economy?

As e-commerce evolves and gains power in the business-to-business (B2B) marketplace, what lies ahead for the industrial distributor? The fundamental issue from the distributor's point of view is how to compete more effectively and profitably, given the changing business environment of the new economy. This paper reviews the literature on the distributor's role and relationships and introduces a conceptual model of distributor viability. The model identifies sources of value that distributors offer to manufacturers and customers, including customer relationship management (CRM), production and operations management (POM), and knowledge management (KM). The paper explores the managerial implications of distributor relationships and sources of value. This provides the foundation for better understanding of the viability of industrial distributors in the new economy.     

Problems evaluating sales representative performance?: Try activity-based costing

Activity-based costing (ABC) offers a way to improve performance evaluation by providing estimates of the cost of satisfying sales terms to which a sales representative may agree, such as number of batches in which an order is produced and number of training hours provided to customer employees. It also provides estimates of the cost of resources that a sales representative may use while engaging in marketing activities, such as making sales calls and attending trade shows. Traditional costing, which assumes that costs only vary at the unit level, does not provide estimates of the costs of many of these terms and activities.     

Exploring export sales management practices in small- and medium-sized firms

We investigate key sales management aspects in relation to the export involvement stage of the firm. Specifically, an attempt is made to examine the presence of significant differences in export sales management control strategy, export sales organization design and export sales management behavioral attributes between ‘active’ and ‘committed’ exporting firms. We identify several differences among these exporter groups with the main conclusion being that the sales management function is more effectively organized and managed at advanced levels of export involvement. These findings are discussed in the light of existing knowledge, and various conclusions and research implications are also derived.     

Internet impacts on supply chain management

The traditional way of managing supply chains has changed dramatically over the last 5 years. Face-to-face management, manual tracking systems, paper-dominated order processing systems, and wired communication links were the primary management tools available to logistics managers. Today, they are obsolete. The article provides an overview of some of the new tools and trends discussed in this issue, including website structure, e-purchasing, electronic marketplaces, building vendor relationships, and the use of the Internet in managing supply chains in China.