Expressive Constitutionalism

We argue that the standard Constitutional Political Economy defence of constitutionalism, that derives from an argument relating to the shift from narrowly self-interested motivations in the in-period context to relatively general-interest decision making in the constitutional context, is flawed precisely because it is intended to relate to essentially political settings where decision making must be construed as collective in nature. We suggest an alternate account of expressive constitutionalism that points to a specific defence of constitutional conventions that are insulated from popular voting.     

Improving the econometric precision of regulatory models

Regulatory regimes often attempt to introduce quasi-competitive pressures by undertaking comparative efficiency assessments between the regulated companies and setting company-specific cost reduction targets based on those comparisons. The UK water industry is one example of such a regime—indeed, it has emphasized the importance of maintaining the number of independent companies in order to preserve the robustness of the modeling. For example, in 2007, the Competition Commission considered whether the merger between Mid Kent Water and South East Water might prejudice the ability of the regulator (Ofwat) to make comparisons across water companies for the purposes of assessing performance and setting price controls. In this paper, we examine this issue and provide specific recommendations to regulators. Our cross-sectional results show that the impact of this merger is not significant. We demonstrate that joint estimation of all the sub-models using the ‘seemingly unrelated regression’ (SUR) procedure in a cross-section and/or panel data framework can dramatically improve the accuracy of the modeling. Moreover, the merger does not affect the confidence intervals significantly under such approaches, which still remain far superior to those under Ofwat’s cross-sectional approach. Based on these results, we recommend that Ofwat and other regulators adopt SUR and/or panel data analysis and thereby reduce their reliance on having sufficient numbers of independent companies.     

Random Effects Misspecification Can Have Severe Consequences for Random Effects Inference in Linear Mixed Models

There has been considerable and controversial research over the past two decades into how successfully random effects misspecification in mixed models (i.e. assuming normality for the random effects when the true distribution is non‐normal) can be diagnosed and what its impacts are on estimation and inference. However, much of this research has focused on fixed effects inference in generalised linear mixed models. In this article, motivated by the increasing number of applications of mixed models where interest is on the variance components, we study the effects of random effects misspecification on random effects inference in linear mixed models, for which there is considerably less literature. Our findings are surprising and contrary to general belief: for point estimation, maximum likelihood estimation of the variance components under misspecification is consistent, although in finite samples, both the bias and mean squared error can be substantial. For inference, we show through theory and simulation that under misspecification, standard likelihood ratio tests of truly non‐zero variance components can suffer from severely inflated type I errors, and confidence intervals for the variance components can exhibit considerable under coverage. Furthermore, neither of these problems vanish asymptotically with increasing the number of clusters or cluster size. These results have major implications for random effects inference, especially if the true random effects distribution is heavier tailed than the normal. Fortunately, simple graphical and goodness‐of‐fit measures of the random effects predictions appear to have reasonable power at detecting misspecification. We apply linear mixed models to a survey of more than 4 000 high school students within 100 schools and analyse how mathematics achievement scores vary with student attributes and across different schools. The application demonstrates the sensitivity of mixed model inference to the true but unknown random effects distribution.     

A coming ‘Magnesian’ age? Small states,the global system,and the international community

Since Plato, we have considered that the ideal polis, or political community, is the small state, akin to the idyllic ‘Magnesia’ of the Laws. The Platonic ideal, however, generally has been considered unrealistic. Even in the ancient world, the Alexandrine model ‐ an expanding, pluralistic network of large trading cities under a single aegis ‐ came to contradict it. Subsequent history, especially the imperialism of the nineteenth century which swallowed up many small polities around the world, seemed to prove that only large and powerful entities were ‘fit’ to survive. Why, then, are there still so many small‐sized countries in the world today? Why is their number actually increasing? Decolonisation, the end of bipolarity, democratisation, trade liberalisation and the digital revolution are five factors that have given small states more freedom. Yet many are vulnerable, and the economics of their situations are precarious. The workings of the global system, particularly the globalisation of business, may harm them even while promoting their freedom. The international community, a large part of which is now in fact made up of small states, should be prepared to act, for the global public good as well as out of sheer political and also environmental self‐interest, to help safeguard the livelihood of the world's many and varied small states, whose ‘Magnesian’ venues and values can be of both functional and normative importance for mankind as a whole.     

Prostitution services: an exploratory empirical analysis

This study provides an empirical analysis of the market for some male prostitution services in the UK. Flexible working hours, part-time working, and multiple job holding are considered as important labour market characteristics in this service sector. Statistical models helping explain the provision of a deviant and a more mainstream sexual service is reported, utilizing cross-section data drawn from individual prostitute advertisements. The significance of various declared intrinsic endowments of the prostitutes are examined in relation to the offer of these services, including age, ethnicity, physique, and masculine demeanour.     

Parental preferences and choice of school

This paper provides a UK high resolution microeconometric study of parental preferences and the choice process for secondary schools. Given the particular geographical features of the region, first preference almost entirely related to one of two state schools, which is a situation that perhaps better reflects the real nature of the options faced by most parents in the UK. In contrast to earlier work, distance and access considerations were explicitly incorporated in the preference and choice models estimated and found to be a significant influence on parental decisions. Further significant factors were found, dependent upon the parents' actual choice of school.     

Consumption, Housing Rents and Housing Price: A Test Of A Real Estate Pricing Model Using Hong Kong Data

The present study investigates whether Hong Kong's volatile real estate market is consistent with a non–linear consumption–based–asset–pricing model. It finds that the asset–pricing model is not rejected for some types of properties. However, the differentials between the returns to residential properties and risk–free rate are too large to be explained by the model.