The architecture of R&D joint projects: the social network analysis approach

This paper examines the effect of network properties on the performance R&D joint projects. In particular, we examine the impact of network cohesion, diversity and shape on the performance of these of exploration and exploitation R&D projects. We test these measures using data on projects from European R&D networks developed under the framework of Eureka projects. The empirical results indicated some network properties enhance the project’s performance and these differ depending on the kind of technological project developed. Our results suggest a lower heterogeneity, greater cohesion and network centralisation in exploitation than in exploration projects. Our findings show different types of structures depending on the aim of the joint project and that there exist different degrees of cohesion between the partners that comprise the core and the peripheral nodes.     

The convertibility of the rouble

Conclusion After a relatively long period of discussion, characterised by an uncertain approach towards transition, the Soviet authorities are now moving with decision towards the market. This statement applies to the reform as a whole and in particular to convertibility.The convertibility process in the Soviet Union started from a relatively unfavourable position: not only because of the complete (internal and external) inconvertibility of the Rouble, but also because the country's past displays a sort of structural propensity towards inconvertibility.It took the Soviet authorities some years to dismiss the doctrine of a parallel currency and the idea that convertibility is the final step of the transition. Recent legislative production in the Soviet Union (in particular the Banking law and the Currency law) are a good sign that they are proceeding in the right direction and practical experience seems to confirm this statement.In 1991 the process has accelerated and more important progress was made towards unification of the exchange rates and the creation of a currency market: these are two steps which are fundamental for achieving partial external convertibility (current account operations made by non-residents), which in its turn is the first step towards broader convertibility. Probably within the end of the year external partial convertibility will be reached. This at last will increase the foreign contribution to the Soviet economy, thus improving domestic conditions. The events of August 1991 will most likely further accelerate the pace of the process, which is now without doubt irreversible.Even if qualitatively positive results are achieved in the reform process however, great effort must still be made not only to complete and consolidate these results, but also to proceed further towards internal and financial convertibility.     

Spillover Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainties in India

This paper examines the spillover effects and the causality between inflation, output growth and its uncertainties for India. Using monthly data for the period from April 1980 to April 2011, we estimated a bi-variate GARCH in mean with BEKK representations. This study differs from the earlier works where the parameters in the BEKK representations are estimated individually and the inferences are drawn on the basis of the individual lagged variance, covariance, and error terms from the respective equations. The empirical evidence suggests that inflation uncertainty seems to have significant negative impact on output growth and positive impact on output uncertainty and there is a positive influence of output uncertainty on the inflation. More importantly, there are spillovers and volatility transmission effects between the macroeconomic uncertainties where the volatility in output growth is significantly influenced by the shocks and volatility in inflation.

     

PRIOR ELICITATION IN MULTIPLE CHANGE‐POINT MODELS*

This article discusses Bayesian inference in change‐point models. The main existing approaches treat all change‐points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change‐points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change‐points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as “noninformative,” and treats the number of change‐points as unknown. Artificial and real data exercises show how these different priors can have a substantial impact on estimation and prediction.     

CIVIL WAR EXPOSURE AND VIOLENCE

In recent years scholars have begun to focus on the consequences of individuals' exposure to civil war, including its severe health and psychological consequences. Our innovation is to move beyond the survey methodology that is widespread in this literature to analyze the actual behavior of individuals with varying degrees of exposure to civil war in a common institutional setting. We exploit the presence of thousands of international soccer (football) players with different exposures to civil conflict in the European professional leagues, and find a strong relationship between the extent of civil conflict in a player's home country and his propensity to behave violently on the soccer field, as measured by yellow and red cards. This link is robust to region fixed effects, country characteristics (e.g. rule of law, per capita income), player characteristics (e.g. age, field position, quality), outliers, and team fixed effects. Reinforcing our claim that we isolate the effect of civil war exposure rather than simple rule breaking or something else entirely, there is no meaningful correlation between our measure of exposure to civil war and soccer performance measures not closely related to violent conduct. The result is also robust to controlling for civil wars before a player's birth, suggesting that it is not driven by factors from the distant historical past.     

A structured approach to conflict prediction in information systems strategy implementation

Organizational power and politics are the central issues of this paper. By developing a model of organizational power it is possible to determine whether an organizational change initiative is likely to be politically feasible. The formal model described has been derived largely from research reported in the social sciences. The modelling process involved using formal methods, in logic and entity relationship analysis, to discover an effective and consistent means of representing key organizational power concepts. The result is an advisory expert system called MP/L1 that can be employed by change agents to predict likely sources of potential resistance to major change initiatives and to suggest tactics that might be effective in combating anticipated resistance. Industrial experience with MP/L1 to date indicates that it has significant potential as a change management tool within the IS strategy-implementation domain. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Default estimation,correlated defaults,and expert information

Capital allocation decisions are made on the basis of an assessment of creditworthiness. Default is a rare event for most segments of a bank's portfolio and data information can be minimal. Inference about default rates is essential for efficient capital allocation, for risk management and for compliance with the requirements of the Basel II rules on capital standards for banks. Expert information is crucial in inference about defaults. A Bayesian approach is proposed and illustrated using prior distributions assessed from industry experts. A maximum entropy approach is used to represent expert information. The binomial model, most common in applications, is extended to allow correlated defaults yet remain consistent with Basel II. The application shows that probabilistic information can be elicited from experts and econometric methods can be useful even when data information is sparse. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.