Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach

We examine the economic implications arising from a bank using a VaR-constrained mean-variance model for the selection of its trading portfolio as a consequence of the Basle Capital Accord. Surprisingly, we show that when a VaR constraint is imposed, it is plausible that certain banks will end up selecting ‘riskier’ portfolios than they would have chosen in the absence of the constraint. Accordingly, regulators such as the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision should be aware that allowing a bank to use VaR to determine its minimum regulatory capital may increase its fragility. Alternatives to VaR-based bank capital regulation that mitigate or even preclude its perverse implications are presented.     

Investor Sentiment,Trading Behavior and Informational Efficiency in Index Futures Markets

This paper shows that traders in index futures markets are positive feedback traders—they buy when prices increase and sell when prices decline. Positive feedback trading appears to be more active in periods of high investor sentiment. This finding is consistent with the notion that feedback trading is driven by expectations of noise traders. Consistent with the noise trading hypothesis, order flow in index futures markets is less informative when investors are optimistic. Transitory volatility measured at high frequencies also appears to decline in periods of bullish sentiment, suggesting that sentiment‐driven trading increases market liquidity.     

Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return

Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre‐funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed‐economy, overlapping‐generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay‐as‐you‐go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby‐boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal.     

Global Integration in Primary Equity Markets: The Role of U.S. Banks and U.S. Investors

We examine the costs and benefits of the global integrationof initial public offering (IPO) markets associated with thediffusion of U.S. underwriting methods in the 1990s. Bookbuildingis becoming increasingly popular outside the United States andtypically costs twice as much as a fixed-price offer. However,on its own, bookbuilding only leads to lower underpricing whenconducted by U.S. banks and/or targeted at U.S. investors. Formost issuers, the gains associated with lower underpricing outweighedthe additional costs associated with hiring U.S. banks or marketingin the United States. This suggests a quality/price trade-offcontrasting with the findings of Chen and Ritter, particularlysince non-U.S. issuers raising US$20 million–US$80 millionalso typically pay a 7% spread when U.S. banks and investorsare involved.     

Life Settlement Funds: Current Valuation Practices and Areas for Improvement

We analyze the prevailing valuation practices in the life settlement industry based on a sample of 11 funds that cover a large portion of the current market. The most striking result is that a majority of asset managers seem to substantially overvalue their portfolios relative to the prices of comparable transactions that have recently been closed. Drawing on market‐consistent estimates with regard to medical underwriting, it is possible to trace back the observed discrepancies to inadequately low model inputs for life expectancies and discount rates. The main consequences are a dissimilar treatment of investor groups in open‐end funds structures as well as an unduly high compensation for managers and third parties. To address this predicament, we suggest defining life settlements as level 2 assets in the fair value hierarchy of IFRS 13, improving transparency and disclosure requirements, and developing new incentive‐compatible fee schedules.     

Portrayals of Minorities and Women in Super Bowl Advertising

Portrayals of women and minorities advertising have long been of interest to advertising scholars. While research has found that the overall representation of these groups has increased, some stereotypes persist, and so do questions about the quality and prominence of portrayals. This study examines portrayals of minorities and women in Super Bowl advertising, the main “pop culture” showcase for US advertising. A content analysis of 10 years of Super Bowl ads is conducted and a multinomial logit regression model is employed to delve deeper into the content analysis results. Findings show that while the overall representation of women and various minority groups is strong, a deeper analysis shows that these groups are seldom depicted as primary characters by themselves and that some subtle stereotypes persist. We also find that ads featuring female principal characters are more likely to feature home settings, sexual appeals, emotional messages, and music as a major element and that it is less likely for female (vs. male) celebrities to be used. Minority principal characters are more likely to be celebrities and be included in ads with music or for technical products but are less likely to be included in ads featuring corporate social responsibility messages.     

How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?

This paper investigates how firms should hedge price risk when payment dates are uncertain. We derive variance-minimizing strategies and show that the instrument choice is essential for this problem, similar to the choice between a strip and a stack hedge. The first setting concentrates on futures hedges, whereas the second allows for nonlinear derivatives. In both settings, firms should take positions in derivatives with different maturities simultaneously. We present an empirical analysis for commodities and exchange rates, showing that in both settings the optimal strategy clearly outperforms the commonly used heuristic strategies which consider only one hedging instrument at a time.     

Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles: sometimes worse than the toss of a coin

Small Business Economics - The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices—from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method...     

CLASSIFYING MONETARY ECONOMICS: FIELDS AND METHODS FROM PAST TO FUTURE

Abstract We propose a simple, yet sufficiently encompassing, classification scheme of monetary economics. It comprises three fundamental fields and six recent areas that expand within and across these fields. The elements of our scheme are not found together and in their mutual relationships in earlier studies of the relevant literature; neither does this attempt aim to produce a relatively complete systematization. Our intention in taking stock is not finality or exhaustiveness. We rather suggest a viewpoint and a possible ordering of the accumulating knowledge. Our purpose is to promote discussion on the evolving nature and internal consistency of monetary economics at large.