Zukunftsorientierte Steuerung – Wie Controller die Zukunft mitgestalten können

PRAXIS | Magazin

Zukunftsorientierte Steuerung – Wie Controller die Zukunft mitgestalten k?nnen Konferenz-Review     

Where has the rum gone? The impact of maritime piracy on trade and transport

Review of World Economics - Despite a general agreement that piracy poses a significant threat to maritime shipping, empirical evidence regarding its economic consequences remains scarce. This...     

Vertical Market Participation

Firms that operate at both levels of vertically related Cournot oligopolies will purchase some input supplies from independent rivals, even though they can produce the good at a lower cost, driving up input price for nonintegrated firms at the final good level. Foreclosure, which avoids this strategic behavior, yields better market performance than Cournot beliefs.     

Modelling default contagion using multivariate phase-type distributions

We model dynamic credit portfolio dependence by using default contagion in an intensity-based framework. Two different portfolios (with ten obligors), one in the European auto sector, the other in the European financial sector, are calibrated against their market CDS spreads and the corresponding CDS-correlations. After the calibration, which are perfect for the banking portfolio, and good for the auto case, we study several quantities of importance in active credit portfolio management. For example, implied multivariate default and survival distributions, multivariate conditional survival distributions, implied default correlations, expected default times and expected ordered default times. The default contagion is modelled by letting individual intensities jump when other defaults occur, but be constant between defaults. This model is translated into a Markov jump process, a so called multivariate phase-type distribution, which represents the default status in the credit portfolio. Matrix-analytic methods are then used to derive expressions for the quantities studied in the calibrated portfolios.