The rest of me

iPhone Siri demonstratively introduced natural language processing. Still a gadget, the idea revived one of the old promises of computers as personal assistants. Does it have the potential of fulfilling the already burgeoning imagination related to this promise? The authors believe that, while still dependent on the evolution of artificial intelligence, the virtual assistant may find support in the already maturing technologies of augmented reality and, more important, in the changing global network with the semantic web, Internet of things and geo-location. Bluntly speaking, its feasibility and acceptability may not even have to wait for the promised IBM computer with human brain capabilities, but rather build on a more friendly interaction with the Google search engine.The article provides a narrative scenario of the deep economic and social transformations and even turbulence that the so called imaginary friend may produce. Not discarding, but creatively integrating some of the archetypes of futuristic literature, the story positions these entities as the foreground of a deep integration of networks, with the added turmoil caused by economic interests that go beyond individuals’ sense-making capacity.This article is one of the follow-ups of the international foresight workshop “Crazy futures” coordinated by Ziauddin Sardar and George Cairns in a small resort on the Danube Delta in July 2011, a workshop organised as part of the project Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education.     

Framing Sustainable Consumption in Different Ways: Policy Lessons from Two Participatory Systems Mapping Exercises in Hungary

Sustainable consumption as a complex phenomenon at the boundaries of different (ecological, economic, social) systems requires theoretical approaches that do justice to its complex causality and dynamism. Participatory systems mapping offers a tool to achieve this purpose. Its policy relevance lies in its ability to include diverse views, multiple actors, and offer options for policy intervention. The research reported here applied participatory systems mapping in order to define and identify system boundaries for sustainable consumption and uncover perceived causal relationships among the determining factors of sustainable consumption. By revealing the mental models of an expert and a conscious consumer panel on sustainable consumption in general, we can shed light on the cognitive constructions of sustainable consumption and identify most important boundaries that were chosen and their implications on policy-making. The expert panel framed the boundaries as lack of sustainable consumption, while the conscious consumer panel employed a positive framing as strong communities in sustainable consumption. The two panels also differed in their focus on scale: Experts targeted the national scale, while conscious consumers concentrated at the local scale.     

Estimation and pricing under long-memory stochastic volatility

We treat the problem of option pricing under a stochastic volatility model that exhibits long-range dependence. We model the price process as a Geometric Brownian Motion with volatility evolving as a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We assume that the model has long-memory, thus the memory parameter H in the volatility is greater than 0.5. Although the price process evolves in continuous time, the reality is that observations can only be collected in discrete time. Using historical stock price information we adapt an interacting particle stochastic filtering algorithm to estimate the stochastic volatility empirical distribution. In order to deal with the pricing problem we construct a multinomial recombining tree using sampled values of the volatility from the stochastic volatility empirical measure. Moreover, we describe how to estimate the parameters of our model, including the long-memory parameter of the fractional Brownian motion that drives the volatility process using an implied method. Finally, we compute option prices on the S&P 500 index and we compare our estimated prices with the market option prices.     

Consumer response to food labels in an emerging market: the case of Romania

This study investigates consumer response to food labels in an emerging market. More specifically, it measures the levels of awareness, objective and perceived understanding, perceived usefulness and perceived trustworthiness of the most prominent food labels found in the Romanian market. An online survey was conducted with a convenience sample of 428 respondents (45.6% males of an average age of 30.6 years). Results revealed that for most respondents, awareness levels towards food labels are generally low, except for the Guideline Daily Amount (GDA) and the organic food labels. Objective understanding towards food labels was relatively high, especially towards those food labels that included a clear text element. Perceived understanding, perceived usefulness and perceived trustworthiness were found to be consistently high with regard to the GDA and the national organic food labels, while the European organic label scored lower. Finally, response to food labels was found to differ between aware and unaware respondents.     

Transformations of a city centre in the light of ideologies: the case of Banská Bystrica,Slovakia

This paper is concerned with transformations of the central square in the city of Banská Bystrica, Central Slovakia, from 1918 to the present. This period can be divided into three important eras with respect to the historical development of the square. In the democratic period from 1918–48, the central square was a polyfunctional area where most of the city’s social and cultural events and activities took place. The polyfunctionality of the square in the interwar period was replaced by a dominating traffic function in the communist period, during the years 1948–89. The central square became the arterial road of the city where any social and cultural activities were impossible to organize because of noise and pollution. The situation has changed since the velvet revolution in 1989. Most of the houses on the square have been returned to former owners and transformed into luxurious private shops, restaurants, cafes and banks. In 1994 the complete reconstruction of the square took place. The inhabitants have welcomed the reconstruction with great interest. After long years, the square has become a place of rich social and cultural life, and is considered a symbol of modernization and westernization. The reconstruction of the square has contributed to a revitalization of urban life. It has reinforced the inhabitants’ identity with the city and their pride in the place where they live. mdash; Cet article concerne les transformations de la place centrale de la ville de Banská Bystrica en Slovakie Centrale, de 1918 à nos jours. Cette période peut être divisée en trois époques, importantes quant au développement historique de cette place. Durant la période démocratique de 1918 à 1948, la place centrale était un endroit polyfonctionnel où prenaient place la plupart des activités sociales et culturelles. La polyfonctionnalité de la place entre les deux guerres fut remplacée par la fonction dominante de la circulation durant la période communiste de 1948 à 1989. La place centrale devint l’artère principale de la ville où il était impossible d’organiser des activités culturelles ou sociales à cause du bruit et de la pollution. Cette situation a changé depuis la révolution feutrée de 1989. La plupart des maisons sur la place ont été rendues à leurs anciens propriétaires et transformées en boutiques de luxe, en restaurants, en cafés et en banques. La reconstruction complète de la place que les habitants ont accueilli chaudement et avec grand intérêt, eut lieu en 1994. Après de nombreuses années, la place est devenue un lieu riche de vie culturelle et sociale et est considérée un symbole de modernisation et occidentalisation. La reconstruction de la place a contribuéà la revigoration de la vie urbaine. Elle a renforcé l’identification des habitants à leur ville et leur fierté d’y habiter.     

Politics matter: changes in unionisation rates in rich countries, 1960–2010

We use the Institutional Characteristics of Trade Unions, Wage Setting, State Intervention and Social Pacts database to examine the changes in collective bargaining coverage and union density among 21 OECD countries over the past 50 years. The observed patterns suggest that national politics are a more important determinant of recent trends in unionisation than globalisation or technological change.     

Improving retrospective life course data by combining modularized self-reports and event history calendars: experiences from a large scale survey

Event history calendars (EHC) have proven to be a powerful tool for collecting retrospective autobiographical life course data. One problem is that they are only standardized to a limited extent. This restricts their applicability in large-scale surveys. However, in such surveys, a modularized retrospective CATI design can be combined with an EHC. This data revision module is directly integrated into the interview and used as a data revision module, allowing insights from cognitive psychology to be applied. The data revision module stimulates the respondent’s memory retrieval by detecting both temporal inconsistencies, such as gaps, and overlapping or parallel events. This approach was implemented in the IAB-ALWA study (Working and Learning in a Changing World), a large-scale representative telephone survey involving 10,000 respondents. By comparing the uncorrected data with the final data after revision, we can investigate to what extent the application of this data revision module improves data quality or, more precisely, time consistency and dating accuracy of individual reports.     

US Families 2025: In search of future families

Parenting defines and cultivates gender roles for men and women, from both biological and cultural angles. From scanning the latest trends, issues, and social pulses on parenting, families and the gender roles encapsulated, it is evident that changes are taking place: dual-income families, a health insurance crisis, family-work conflicts, bioengineering, same-sex marriage, and increasing health concerns — just some of the issues — are changing in the US, while families and gender roles are being shaped and reshaped in the process. In this article, four alternative future scenarios generate implications that challenge mainstream assumptions about the future of parenting and reveal possibilities for future male and female roles. Four scenarios (Mr. & Mrs. Right Now, Marriage Marketplace, The New Waltons for the 21st Century, and Desperate Housewives) emerged from an informal workshop held at the University of Houston, Clear Lake (UHCL) February 19, 2005.     

The first stage of European Economic and Monetary Union

After two false starts, the first stage of European Economic and Monetary Union began on 1st July 1990. The following two articles discuss the consequences that the inauguration of EMU will have for economic policy co-ordination in the European Community. The views stated here are only those of the author and can on no account be attributed to the Commission of the European Communities.