Set coverage and robust policy

We show that confidence regions covering the identified set may be preferable to confidence regions covering each of its points in robust control applications.     

Investment opportunities and bankruptcy prediction

A firm's mix of growth options and assets in place is an important determinant of its optimal default strategy. Our simple model shows that shareholders of a firm with valuable investment opportunities would be able/willing to wait longer before defaulting on their contractual debt obligations than shareholders of an otherwise identical firm without such opportunities. More importantly, we show empirically using a dataset of recent corporate bankruptcies that measures of investment opportunities are significantly related to the likelihood of bankruptcy. Augmenting existing bankruptcy prediction models by these measures improves their out-of-sample forecasting ability.     

Limit theorems for the spacings of weak records

Let W(1), W(2), . . . be weak record values obtained from a sample of independent variables with common discrete distribution. In the present paper, we derive weak and strong limit theorems for the spacings W(n + m) − W(n), m ≥ 1, n → ∞.     

Control and the management of a spreading invader

We consider the problem of management of an aquatic invader spreading in a lake system. We assume that each year the invader can be removed from a certain proportion of invaded lakes, which depends on the selected intensity of control. Control decisions are generated and compared for an optimally controlled system and for a static optimization across asymptotic steady states. Control close to eradication of the invasive species is always optimal for invasions with relatively high damages, low rates of density dependent spread and/or low chance of additional random introductions. Control to a highly invaded steady state is optimal for those invasions with low relative damages, high chances of random introduction and high levels of uncertainty in species location. In all other cases the optimal outcome depends upon initial conditions. Comparing the relative performance of the optimally controlled system and the static optimization demonstrates situations when the differences are small and when not. When invasions are acted upon in their later stages and across certain parameter combinations a static optimization provides a reasonable approximation of an optimally controlled system. The flip-side is that optimal policies directed at an invasion in its early stages tend to provide significantly savings. The savings vary across parameter combinations, yet in these situations little useful insight will be generated without consideration of a dynamically optimized system.     

Tolerance of Cheating: An Analysis Across Countries

Cheating is a serious problem in many countries. The cheater gets higher marks than deserved, thus reducing the efficiency of a country's educational system. In this study, the authors did not ask if and how often the student had cheated, but rather what the student's opinion was about a cheating situation. They investigated whether attitudes differ among students in Russia, the Netherlands, Israel, and the United States and conclude that attitudes toward cheating differ considerably between these countries. They offer various explanations of this phenomenon. In addition, they find that the student's attitude toward cheating depends on the student's educational level (high school, undergraduate, postgraduate). Finally, they show that the data from the sample can be aggregated in a natural and elegant way, and they suggest a tolerance-of-cheating index for each country.     

Income Shares Revisited

A number of recent studies claim that when properly computed, factor income shares across countries at different levels of development are essentially uniform. This note evaluates the methodology behind such findings and offers estimates using newly available data. The results for a group of 55 developed, developing, and transition economies for the period 1990–2008 lead us to reject the hypothesis of factor share convergence.     

Fat Products

The economics literature generally considers products as points in some characteristics space. With more products being flexible or self-customizable to some degree, it makes sense to model products with positive measure. I develop a model of firms which can offer interval-long "fat" products in the spatial model of differentiation. Contrary to the standard results, profits of the firms can decrease with increased differentiation in the market—there is a standard effect of lowering the incentive to cut prices, but there is also an incentive to provide more content, resulting in higher costs and possibly overall losses.     

Attributional tendencies in cultural explanations of M&A performance

This paper focuses on managers' attributions of M&A performance. Our analysis indicates that there is a linear association between performance and attributions to cultural differences, which is moderated by prior experience. Furthermore, our results suggest that there is a curvilinear association between performance and attributions to managers' actions, but we found no support for the moderating effect of experience for this association. By substantiating these attributional tendencies, our results contribute to research on M&As and studies on attribution more generally. In particular, our study helps to put cultural differences in perspective and cautions researchers and practitioners alike to avoid simplistic explanations of M&A performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors

This paper introduces a drifting-parameter asymptotic framework to derive accurate approximations to the finite sample distribution of the principal components (PC) estimator in situations when the factors’ explanatory power does not strongly dominate the explanatory power of the cross-sectionally and temporally correlated idiosyncratic terms. Under our asymptotics, the PC estimator is inconsistent. We find explicit formulae for the amount of the inconsistency, and propose an estimator of the number of factors for which the PC estimator works reasonably well. For the special case when the idiosyncratic terms are cross-sectionally but not temporally correlated (or vice versa), we show that the coefficients in the OLS regressions of the PC estimates of factors (loadings) on the true factors (true loadings) are asymptotically normal, and find explicit formulae for the corresponding asymptotic covariance matrix. We explain how to estimate the parameters of the derived asymptotic distributions. Our Monte Carlo analysis suggests that our asymptotic formulae and estimators work well even for relatively small n$n$ and T$T$. We apply our theoretical results to test a hypothesis about the factor content of the US stock return data.     

Financing and takeovers

This paper analyzes the interaction between financial leverage and takeover activity. We develop a dynamic model of takeovers in which the financing strategies of bidding firms and the timing and terms of takeovers are jointly determined. In the paper, capital structure plays the role of a commitment device, and determines the outcome of the acquisition contest. We demonstrate that there exists an asymmetric equilibrium in financing policies with endogenous leverage, bankruptcy, and takeover terms, in which the bidder with the lowest leverage wins the takeover contest. Based on the resulting equilibrium, the model generates a number of new predictions. In particular, the model predicts that the leverage of the winning bidder is below the industry average and that acquirers should lever up after the takeover consummation. The model also relates the dispersion in leverage ratios to various industry characteristics, such as cash flow volatility or bankruptcy costs.