THE STATISTICS OF LONG-HORIZON REGRESSIONS REVISITED1

This paper compares commonly used approaches for estimating the relation between long-horizon returns and a predetermined variable X₁, such as dividend yields. Specifically, we look at regression of (i) nonoverlapping multiperiod returns on X_t (ii) overlapping multiperiod returns on X_t, (iii) single-period returns on multiperiod X_t, and (iv) single-period returns on X_t and its implied long-horizon regression coefficient. We provide analytical formulae which quantify the efficiency of the estimators used in the various approaches. Using the formulae, as well as Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the relative efficiency of the estimators used in the various approaches differs remarkably, depending on the dynamic structure of the regressor. of special interest for financial economists, when the regressors are highly autocorrelated, we find that the regressions (ii) (iii), and (iv) provide only marginal efficiency gains above and beyond the nonoverlapping long-horizon regression.     

An Empirical Re-Examination of the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: UK Evidence

This paper is a study of the Fama and French (1992) analysis in the UK context. Consistent with their findings, our results do not support a positive relationship between beta and average monthly returns. We find that book-to-market equity and market leverage are consistently significant in explaining UK average returns. Contrary to the Fama-French evidence, size has an insignificant effect on average returns. A puzzling negative beta-returns relationship is found in some monthly regressions,and results based on annual data reveal a reversal of betas for the smallest-size portfolios. Some possible explanations are offered for these findings.     

The zero-sum management disease and the von Thünen prescription

As early as the mid-nineteenth century, the German farmer and economic theorist, Johann von Thünen, knew that the economic pie could be made larger by the common man's ability to work more creatively and productively. Von Thünen's contributions to management thought may well be what we need today.     

Living Decently

One of the reasons why poverty lines became popular at the turn of the century was their promise of a scientific technique that would dispense with moralising about poverty. We argue that a price paid in this quest has been an impoverishment of the richness of the notion of 'a decent life', the moral concept underlying poverty. In addition, poverty lines have in practice been more to do with inequality at the bottom end of the income distribution than with poverty. The purpose of this article is to rehabilitate the measurement of poverty, and to make it credible. We set out our preferred method of poverty measurement, and illustrate it using data from the Australian Standard of Living Study. A feature of our approach is to distinguish clearly between issues of inequality and issues of poverty. Questions such as who is on the bottom of the income distribution, whether this has changed over time, and how income levels of the worst off compare with the mean, are questions of inequality. As such, the answers tell us nothing at all about how the worst off are actually living. To answer that question, we require direct measures of consumption and of social participation. These measures are not as simple, but they provide us with knowledge about poverty that poverty lines have promised, but have not delivered in a credible fashion.     

Causes of cross-autocorrelation in security returns: Transaction costs versus information quality

We examine empirically the role of transaction costs and information quality as causes of cross-autocorrelations in security returns. Nonsynchronous trading influences are addressed by forming weekly returns based on averages of closing inside bid and ask quotations for NMS securities. Stock return volatility scaled by the bid-ask spread is employed as a proxy for transaction costs and trading volume is used as a measure of information quality. We find evidence that both transaction costs and information quality may contribute to cross-autocorrelations, but that information quality dominates transaction costs in explaining cross-autocorrelations after controlling for autocorrelation influences.     

Use of mathematical models in automotive transportation policy analysis: A case study

Mathematical models are used widely in automotive transportation policy analysis. The limitations, benefits, and uses of a case-study model, the Sweeney Passenger Car Gasoline Demand Model, were examined. It was found that because of users' lack of awareness of the model's characteristics, the model has sometimes been misused, although the misuse appears to have had no major negative policy impact. However, the model use has had some impact on major automotive/energy policy decisions of the 1970s. Involvement by the model author in applications of the model contributed to effective use of the model in the policy process.     

What some recent research tells us about planned giving (legacy marketing) in North America

• The transformation of fundraising from an ‘emerging profession’ to a ‘true profession’ is contingent on the continual development of a formal body of knowledge based on theory and research. To further that goal, this paper, written from a Canadian perspective, reviews current and recent research studies in both Canada and the USA, focusing specifically on the areas of legacy marketing and bequest gifts.
• The aim of this paper is two-fold: first, to bring forward ‘established knowledge’ in this relatively new and burgeoning area of fundraising; and second, to draw attention to areas where there is a knowledge gap, thereby laying the groundwork for further research and progress in this area.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.